Why the Publication of Socially Harmful Information May Be Socially Desirable

We propose a signaling model in which the central bank and firms receive information on cost-push shocks independently from each other. If the firms’ signals are rather unlikely to be informative, central banks should remain silent about their own private signals. If, however, firms are sufficiently likely to be informed, it is socially desirable for the central bank to reveal its private information. By doing so, the central bank eliminates the distortions stemming from the signaling incentives under opacity. Our model may also explain the recent trend towards more transparency in monetary policy.signaling games, transparency, monetary policy, central banks, communication

Should the Individual Voting Records of Central Bankers be Published?

We examine whether it is socially beneficial for the individual voting records of central bank council members to be published when the general public is unsure about central bankers' efficiency and central bankers are aiming for re-election. We show that publication is initially harmful since somewhat less efficient central bankers attempt to imitate highly efficient central bankers in their bid to get re-elected. After re-election, however, losses will be lower when voting records are published since the government is more easily able to distinguish highly efficient from less efficient central bankers and can make central bankers individually accountable. Nevertheless, the negative effects of voting transparency predominate and expected overall losses are always larger when voting records are published. -- Wir untersuchen, ob die Veröffentlichung über das individuelle Abstimmungsverhalten von Zentralbankratsmitgliedern gesamtwirtschaftlich nützlich ist, wenn in der Öffentlichkeit Unsicherheit über die Effizienz von Mitgliedern des Zentralbankrats besteht und sich diese um eine Wiederwahl bemühen. Wir weisen nach, dass eine Veröffentlichung zunächst Schaden anrichtet, weil etwas weniger effiziente Mitglieder des Zentralbankrats versuchen, hocheffiziente Zentralbankratsmitglieder in ihren Bemühungen um eine Wiederwahl nachzuahmen. Nach der Wiederwahl sind die Verluste aber geringer, wenn die Abstimmung veröffentlicht wird, weil die Regierung hocheffiziente von weniger effizienten Zentralbankratsmitgliedern leichter unterscheiden und sie einzeln zur Rechenschaft ziehen kann. Die negativen Auswirkungen einer Transparenz des Abstimmungsverhaltens überwiegen aber, und die Nachteile sind insgesamt immer größer, wenn die Abstimmung veröffentlicht wird.

Determinants of Trust in the European Central Bank

In this paper we study the determinants of citizens’ trust in the European Central Bank during the start-up phase from 1999-2004. Using a country panel based on the Eurobarometer survey, we find that higher inflation rates reduce trust. Thus people appear to evaluate the performance of the ECB on the basis of its success in achieving its primary objective, namely price stability. However, national income also has a strong impact, which poses a dilemma to the ECB, as it cannot increase economic growth in the long run. Unemployment does not have a significant impact on trust in the ECB, while unemployment spending exerts a trust-building impact. Possibly, automatic stabilizers serve as substitutes for ECB interventions, which would lower people’s trust. Interestingly, active labor market policies, which can be interpreted as proxies for the public’s perception of the urgency of the problem of high unemployment, tend to decrease trust.ECB, trust, European Union, Eurobarometer, panel data, behavioral economics

Forward Guidance for Monetary Policy: Is It Desirable?

In this paper we assess whether forward guidance for monetary policy regarding the future path of interest rates is desirable. We distinguish between two cases where forward guidance for monetary policy may be helpful. First, forward guidance may reveal private information of the central bank. We argue that vague, non-binding statements may be desirable. Second, forward guidance may be used as a commitment device. In this case, policy forecasts may be desirable in a classic inflation-bias framework but not in a New Keynesian framework.central banks, transparency, commitment, Federal Reserve, policy inclinations, signaling

Inflation Forecast Contracts

We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balance, paying central bankers according to their forecasting performance improves welfare.central banks, incentive contracts, transparency, inflation targeting, inflation forecast targeting, intermediate targets

Modeling Two Macro Policy Instruments - Interest Rates and Aggregate Capital Requirements

We present a simple neoclassical model to explore how an aggregate bank-capital requirement can be used as a macroeconomic policy tool and how this additional tool interacts with monetary policy. Aggregate bank-capital requirements should be adjusted when the economy is hit by cost-push shocks but should not respond to demand shocks. Moreover, an optimal institutional structure is characterized as follows: First, monetary policy is delegated to an independent and conservative central banker. Second, setting aggregate bank-capital requirements is separated from monetary policy.central banks, banking regulation, capital requirements, optimal monetary policy

Voting Transparency and Conflicting Interests in Central Bank Councils

This paper examines whether it is socially desirable for the individual voting records of central bank council members to be published when central bankers' preferences differ. We show that the misrepresentation of their preferences is not advantageous for central bankers although central bankers take into account the fact that they might not be re-elected. Thus, the publication of voting records is beneficial since the government can distinguish central bankers in terms of their preferences and can align the central bank council's preferences with those of the general public over time by means of its re-election decisions. -- In diesem Papier wird untersucht, ob die Veröffentlichung über das individuelle Abstimmungsverhalten von Zentralbankratsmitgliedern sozial wünschenswert ist, wenn diese unterschiedliche Präferenzen haben. Wir zeigen, dass eine falsche Darstellung ihrer Präferenzen für die Mitglieder des Zentralbankrats nicht vorteilhaft ist, auch wenn die Zentralbankratsmitglieder berücksichtigen, dass sie vielleicht nicht wiedergewählt werden. Die Veröffentlichung der Abstimmung ist somit nützlich, weil die Regierung die unterschiedlichen Präferenzen der Zentralbankratsmitglieder im Lauf der Zeit mit denen der Öffentlichkeit durch entsprechende Entscheidungen in Bezug auf die Wiederwahl von Zentralbankratsmitgliedern in Einklang bringen kann.

Banking-on-the-Average Rules

In this paper, we argue for a regulatory framework under which a bank’s required level of equity capital depends on the equity capital of its peers. Such bankingon- the-average rules are transparent and could also be combined with the current regulatory framework. In addition, we argue that banking-on-the-average rules ensure the build-up of bank equity capitals in booms and thus avoid excessive leverage. Prudent banks can impose prudency on other banks. In a simple model of a banking system, we show that a banking-on-the-average framework can deliver the socially optimal solution because it induces banks to abstain from gambling. Moreover, it alleviates socially harmful consequences of conventional equity-capital rules, which may induce banks to excessively cut back on lending or liquidate desirable long-term investment projects in downturns.banking on the average, equity-capital requirements, banking system, banking crisis

A Brief Survey of Recent Edge-Preserving Smoothers

We introduce recent and very recent smoothing methods and discuss them in the common framework of `energy functions'. Focus is on the preservation of boundaries, spikes and canyons in presence of noise

Fairness and voting

In this paper we present a two-period model in which we examine how concern about fairness might affect voter behavior. We show that in the first period politicians choose the median voter's position even if this does not correspond to their bliss points and neither they nor the voters can commit to a particular action. Moreover, concern about fairness creates substantial incumbency advantages. Our results hold even if voters care very little about fairnes