Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways

Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) is a decision making approach that explicitly includes decision making over time. The essence is proactive and dynamic planning in response to how the future actually unfolds. DAPP explores alternative sequences of decisions (adaptation pathways) for multiple futures and illuminates the path dependency of alternative strategies. It opens the decision space and helps to overcome policy paralysis due to deep uncertainty. There are different routes that can achieve the objectives under changing conditions (like ‘different roads leading to Rome’). Policy actions have an uncertain design life and might fail sooner or later to continue achieving objectives as the operating conditions change (i.e. they reach an adaptation tipping point (ATP)). Similarly, opportunity tipping points may occur. Multiple pathways are typically visualized in a metro map or decision tree, with time or changing conditions on one of the axes. DAPP supports the design of a dynamic adaptive strategy that includes initial actions, long-term options, and adaptation signals to identify when to implement the long-term options or revisit decisions

What are the merits of endogenising land-use change dynamics into model-based climate adaptation planning?

Integrated assessment models often treat land-use change as an external driving force. In reality, land-use is influenced by environmental conditions. This paper explores the merits of endogenising land-use change, i.e. making the land-use change a dynamic internal process, in models used for supporting climate adaptation planning. For this purpose, we extend the Waas model, a hypothetical case study used before for testing new model-based climate adaptation approaches. We use a utility-based land-use change model for endogenising the land-use dynamics, evaluate its implications, and identify the conditions under which it becomes important. We find that endogenising land-use dynamics changes the performance of the policies, allows for assessing policies that affect land-use, and widens the outcomes of interest that can be considered. The relevancy of endogenising land-use dynamics depends on (i) the expected severity of future climate change, (ii) the society’s sensitivity to climate events, and (iii) the types of policy options that decision makers want to evaluate. Ignoring the interaction between the environment and the society (in this case land-use) can result in both under- and overestimation of the impacts of adaptation and might limit the adaptation options that are considered

Uncertain Accelerated Sea-Level Rise, Potential Consequences, and Adaptive Strategies in The Netherlands

Recent observations and publications have presented the possibility of a high and accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) later this century due to ice sheet instability and retreat in Antarctica. Under a high warming scenario, this may result in a sea level in 2100 that is up to 2 m higher than present and 5 m in 2150. The large uncertainties in these projections significantly increase the challenge for investment planning in coastal strategies in densely populated coastal zones such as the Netherlands. In this paper, we present the results of two studies that were carried out within the framework of the Dutch Delta Programme. The first study showed that it is not only the absolute SLR that presents a challenge but also the annual rate of rise. The latter impacts the lifetime of constructions such as barriers and pumping stations. When the rate of sea-level rise increases up to several centimeters per year, the intended lifetime of a flood defense structure may be reduced from a century to several decades. This new challenge requires new technologies, experiments, strategies, and governance. The second study explored different strategies for the long term to adapt to high SLR (>1 m) and assessed the consequences thereof on adaptation and developments in the coming 2–3 decades. We believe that strategic choices have to be made regarding the permanent closure of estuaries, the pumping or periodic storage of high river discharges, agriculture in an increasingly saline coastal area, and the maintenance of the coastline by beach nourishments. These strategic choices have to be complemented by no-regret measures such as spatial reservations for future sand extraction (for beach nourishments) and future expansion of flood defenses, water discharge, and water storage. In addition, it is advised to include flexibility in the design of new infrastructure

Prognostic Value of Colonic Tissue and Blood Eosinophils in Ulcerative Colitis.

BACKGROUND It has been suggested that eosinophils may be a prognostic marker of disease outcome in ulcerative colitis (UC), but conflicting data exist. The objective was to investigate the extent of mucosal eosinophils and peripheral blood eosinophil count in newly diagnosed UC patients and to investigate its predictive value in short- and long-term disease outcomes. METHODS The degree of eosinophilia in baseline colonic biopsies and blood of newly diagnosed UC patients was retrospectively analyzed. It was investigated if tissue and blood eosinophilia could be a marker of a severe phenotype of UC, defined as the need for corticosteroids or immunomodulators in the first year or treatment with therapeutic monoclonal antibodies or colectomy during follow-up. Time to therapeutic monoclonal antibodies and time to colectomy were also evaluated as outcomes. RESULTS There were 103 UC patients (median age 26 years) included. Median tissue peak eosinophil count (PEC) was 70.0 and median peripheral blood eosinophil count was 0.3 × 109/L at diagnosis. Tissue PEC (r = -0.161, P = .104) and blood eosinophil count (r = 0.022, P = .877) were not correlated with the severity of histologic inflammation. Logistic regression analyses did not identify PEC and blood eosinophil count as predictors of more severe disease outcomes. Tissue PEC and peripheral blood eosinophil count did not predict the time the initiation of therapeutic monoclonal antibodies or colectomy. CONCLUSION Baseline tissue or peripheral blood eosinophils are not markers of disease activity and cannot be used as a predictor of severe disease outcomes in both adults and children with UC

A stepwise approach for identifying climate change induced socio-economic tipping points

Climate change may cause socio-economic tipping points (SETPs), where the state of a socio-economic system abruptly changes to a fundamentally different state. While their potential existence is recognized, a systematic method for policy-relevant research on SETPs is lacking. This study introduces a stepwise approach for identification of SETPs that supports decision making under uncertain climate and socio-economic conditions. The approach is demonstrated with a stylized case study on the collapse of house prices (a SETP) in a coastal city, due to increasing flood risk from sea level rise. We explore four dynamic adaptive management strategies under a wide range of possible futures. We find that under scenarios with very high and rapid sea level rise, tipping points in real estate prices occur if the market responds to sudden changes in perceived flood risk rather than gradually adjusting prices to changes in flood risk in a rational manner. Such SETPs can only be avoided with a proactive strategy and when flood protection measures are implemented rapidly. Our approach can guide future studies on SETPs and seeks to move the study of SETPs towards a concept that provides perspective of action for policy makers

Improving hydrological climate impact assessments using multirealizations from a global climate model

Many flood risk assessments account for uncertainties in future anthropogenic emissions by considering multiple representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The imperfect knowledge and representation of the climate system is considered with multiple global climate models (GCMs). Yet, uncertainty introduced by incomplete representation of natural variability is also relevant but not always accounted for. A set of realizations provides improved insights in natural variability presented by the GCM. This study explores the potential of using a set of realizations from a single GCM-RCP combination instead of single realizations. We use (subsets of) 16 realizations from EC-Earth for RCP8.5 and focus on three locations along the Rhine. We use a single GCM-RCP combination to avoid the interference of additional sources of uncertainty. We find that projected changes in future river flows highly depend on the realization chosen. Individual ensemble members provide different changes for annual mean flow, extreme flows, and regime shift. By increasing the number of realizations and combining their annual maxima in extreme value analysis, future projections of flow extremes converge. We conclude that a single ensemble realization gives overconfident and possibly erroneous projections. In climate science, this is well studied; however, in flood risk assessments, it is still often neglected

Living with sea-level rise in North-West Europe: Science-policy challenges across scales

Sea-level rise (SLR) confronts coastal societies and stakeholders with increasing hazards and coastal risks with large uncertainties associated to these changes. Adaptation to SLR requires societal and policy decision-making to consider these changing risks, which are in turn defined by socio-economic development objectives and the local societal context. Here, we review some of the key challenges facing governments, stakeholders and scientists in adapting to SLR, and key aspects of successful adaptation, by exploring different approaches to SLR and coastal adaptation planning in three western European countries, the Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom. Several common challenges of SLR adaptation emerge across the different settings, including the inherent uncertainty regarding future conditions, the significant social and socio-economic consequences, the consideration and distribution of (residual) risk over communities, and the long legacy of present-day decisions that affect future risk and management options supporting future generations. These challenges are addressed differently in the three countries, e.g. in the governance level at which adaptation is initiated, although common elements also emerge. One common emerging element is adaptive pathways planning, which entails dynamic decision-making that breaks uncertain decisions into manageable elements or steps over time, while keeping options for the future. Another common element is the development of effective local science-policy interfaces, as engagement of local decision-makers and citizens is essential to manage conflicting interests. Lastly, we find that social and communication sciences have great potential to support effective science-policy interfaces, e.g. though identifying societal tipping points. Yet, in decisions on SLR adaptation, insights from these fields are rarely used to date. We conclude that supporting science-policy interactions for adaptation decision-making at relevant (inter)national to local scales through tailored multi-disciplinary scientific assessments is an important way forward for SLR adaptation in Europe

Protecting the Rhine-Meuse delta against sea level rise: What to do with the river's discharge?

Sea level rise (SLR) will affect water levels and increase flood risk in river deltas. To adapt river deltas to SLR, various strategies can be followed. Many urbanised river deltas already have flood protection in place. Continuing a protection strategy under an increasing SLR, would mean higher embankments along the coast and rivers and possibly closing off the river mouths from the sea. However, closing of rivers will hamper the river flow. How to adapt river deltas and enabling rivers to discharge into the sea is a challenging question. This paper assesses impacts of SLR on flood risks in the Rhine-Meuse Delta in the Netherlands in case the current protection strategy is continued and explores two alternative protection strategies: (1) a closed system with pumps and discharge sluices and (2) an open system in which rivers are diverted to less densely populated areas. The second alternative results in a more flexible river delta, which can accommodate larger SLR. The paper shows that a systems approach and using quantitative assessments of the implications of strategies is possible. This is needed to further assess the adaptation options, so we can anticipate and adapt when needed and avoid regret of decisions

Knowledge co-production for decision-making in human-natural systems under uncertainty

Decision-making under uncertainty is important for managing human-natural systems in a changing world. A major source of uncertainty is linked to the multi-actor settings of decisions with poorly understood values, complex relationships, and conflicting management approaches. Despite general agreement across disciplines on co-producing knowledge for viable and inclusive outcomes in a multi-actor context, there is still limited conceptual clarity and no systematic understanding on what co-production means in decision-making under uncertainty and how it can be approached. Here, we use content analysis and clustering to systematically analyse 50 decision-making cases with multiple time and spatial scales across 26 countries and in 9 different sectors in the last decade to serve two aims. The first is to synthesise the key recurring strategies that underpin high quality decision co-production across many cases of diverse features. The second is to identify important deficits and opportunities to leverage existing strategies towards flourishing co-production in support of decision-making. We find that four general strategies emerge centred around: promoting innovation for robust and equitable decisions; broadening the span of co-production across interacting systems; fostering social learning and inclusive participation; and improving pathways to impact. Additionally, five key areas that should be addressed to improve decision co-production are identified in relation to: participation diversity; collaborative action; power relationships; governance inclusivity; and transformative change. Characterising the emergent strategies and their key areas for improvement can help guide future works towards more pluralistic and integrated science and practice