The Bayesian Echo Chamber: Modeling Social Influence via Linguistic Accommodation

We present the Bayesian Echo Chamber, a new Bayesian generative model for social interaction data. By modeling the evolution of people's language usage over time, this model discovers latent influence relationships between them. Unlike previous work on inferring influence, which has primarily focused on simple temporal dynamics evidenced via turn-taking behavior, our model captures more nuanced influence relationships, evidenced via linguistic accommodation patterns in interaction content. The model, which is based on a discrete analog of the multivariate Hawkes process, permits a fully Bayesian inference algorithm. We validate our model's ability to discover latent influence patterns using transcripts of arguments heard by the US Supreme Court and the movie "12 Angry Men." We showcase our model's capabilities by using it to infer latent influence patterns from Federal Open Market Committee meeting transcripts, demonstrating state-of-the-art performance at uncovering social dynamics in group discussions.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, to appear in AISTATS 2015. Fixed minor formatting issue

Trends in Oropharyngeal Cancer Incidence Among Adult Men and Women in the United States From 2001 to 2018

BackgroundThe human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine was approved in 2006 and has been shown to decrease vaccine-related HPV types in the oropharynx. Its impact on the incidence of HPV-related oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) has not been examined. We investigated the impact of HPV vaccination on the incidence of HPV-related OPSCC in the US among male and female adults from different age groups.MethodsThe US Cancer Statistics 2001–2018 database and the National Cancer Institute (NCI)’s Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program were used in this study. OPSCC incidence was age-adjusted to the US standard population in 2000. Cause-specific 5-year survival probability was calculated using 60 monthly intervals in SEER*Stat software.ResultsIncidence of HPV-related OPSCC was much higher in males than in females. Age-adjusted annual incidence of OPSCC was significantly lower in 2014-2018 than in 2002-2006 among males 20-44 years old (11.4 vs 12.8 per 1,000,000, rate ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.84-0.93) and among females 20-44 years old (3.0 vs 3.6 per 1,000,000, rate ratio 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.78-0.95), but increased in both 45-64 year old and 65+ year old males and females. Joinpoint regression revealed a significant joint in the HPV-OPSCC incidence trend for 20-44-year-old males in 2008 at which time the incidence began to decrease. Except for 20-44 year old females (74.8% in 2002-2006 vs. 75.7% in 2009-2013, p=0.84), cancer-specific 5-year survivals significantly improved for males and females of all age groups.ConclusionsHPV-related OPSCC was much more common in males. Incidence of HPV-related OPSCC declined among young adults during the vaccination era compared with pre-vaccination era. Cancer-specific 5-year survival was significantly improved in young males but not in young females

How cognitive and reactive fear circuits optimize escape decisions in humans

Flight initiation distance (FID), the distance at which an organism flees from an approaching threat, is an ecological metric of cost–benefit functions of escape decisions. We adapted the FID paradigm to investigate how fast- or slow-attacking “virtual predators” constrain escape decisions. We show that rapid escape decisions rely on “reactive fear” circuits in the periaqueductal gray and midcingulate cortex (MCC), while protracted escape decisions, defined by larger buffer zones, were associated with “cognitive fear” circuits, which include posterior cingulate cortex, hippocampus, and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, circuits implicated in more complex information processing, cognitive avoidance strategies, and behavioral flexibility. Using a Bayesian decision-making model, we further show that optimization of escape decisions under rapid flight were localized to the MCC, a region involved in adaptive motor control, while the hippocampus is implicated in optimizing decisions that update and control slower escape initiation. These results demonstrate an unexplored link between defensive survival circuits and their role in adaptive escape decisions

Use of BRCA Mutation Test in the US, 2004-2014

Introduction BRCA mutation testing has been used for screening women at high risk of breast and ovarian cancer and for selecting the best treatment for those with breast cancer. To optimize the infrastructure and medical resources allocation for genetic testing, it is important to understand the use of BRCA mutation testing in the U.S. health system. Methods This retrospective cohort study included 53,254 adult women with insurance claims for BRCA mutation testing between 2004 and 2014 from ClinformaticsTM Data Mart Database. Data analysis was performed in 2016. This study assessed trends in the use of BRCA mutation testing in women with previously diagnosed breast or ovarian cancer and those without (unaffected women). Results Between 2004 and 2014, of those receiving BRCA testing, the proportion of BRCA tests performed in unaffected women increased significantly (p\u3c0.001), from 24.3% in 2004 to 61.5% in 2014. An increase in the proportion of BRCA tests used in unaffected women was found in each characteristic subgroup. In 2014, most subgroups had a proportion surpassing 50%, except for those aged 51–65 years and those without a family history of breast cancer. There was a much lower proportion of those aged 20–40 years among tested women with previously diagnosed breast or ovarian cancer than in unaffected women (17.6% vs 41.7%, p\u3c0.001). Conclusions During the past decade, the role of BRCA testing has gradually shifted from being used primarily in cancer patients to being used in unaffected women in the U.S

How cognitive and reactive fear circuits optimize escape decisions in humans

Flight initiation distance (FID), the distance at which an organism flees from an approaching threat, is an ecological metric of cost–benefit functions of escape decisions. We adapted the FID paradigm to investigate how fast- or slow-attacking “virtual predators” constrain escape decisions. We show that rapid escape decisions rely on “reactive fear” circuits in the periaqueductal gray and midcingulate cortex (MCC), while protracted escape decisions, defined by larger buffer zones, were associated with “cognitive fear” circuits, which include posterior cingulate cortex, hippocampus, and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, circuits implicated in more complex information processing, cognitive avoidance strategies, and behavioral flexibility. Using a Bayesian decision-making model, we further show that optimization of escape decisions under rapid flight were localized to the MCC, a region involved in adaptive motor control, while the hippocampus is implicated in optimizing decisions that update and control slower escape initiation. These results demonstrate an unexplored link between defensive survival circuits and their role in adaptive escape decisions

Predicting link directions via a recursive subgraph-based ranking

Link directions are essential to the functionality of networks and their prediction is helpful towards a better knowledge of directed networks from incomplete real-world data. We study the problem of predicting the directions of some links by using the existence and directions of the rest of links. We propose a solution by first ranking nodes in a specific order and then predicting each link as stemming from a lower-ranked node towards a higher-ranked one. The proposed ranking method works recursively by utilizing local indicators on multiple scales, each corresponding to a subgraph extracted from the original network. Experiments on real networks show that the directions of a substantial fraction of links can be correctly recovered by our method, which outperforms either purely local or global methods.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures; revised arguments for methods section; figures replotted; minor revision

Infant Vaccination Education Preferences among Low-Income Pregnant Women

Childhood vaccination is an important public health intervention, yet many children remain under-vaccinated. The objective of this study was to examine infant vaccination education preferences in a population of low-income pregnant women by ethnicity, nativity, and language. Pregnant women 14–44 y old (n = 335) attending a participating low-income reproductive health clinic in southeast Texas from May 26-July 21, 2017, and who completed a paper survey offered in English and Spanish were included. Participants were asked to complete questions about their demographic characteristics and preferences about infant vaccination education. To examine differences in vaccine education preferences by participant demographic characteristics, chi-squared tests, or Fisher’s exact tests and one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) were conducted using Stata SE Version 15.1 with α = 0.05. Nearly half (47.5%) of participants considered pregnancy the best time to get information about infant vaccination and were most likely (40.6%) to indicate the nurse who gives vaccines during pregnancy as the health-care worker with whom they would like to discuss infant vaccination. There were no demographic differences in preferred timing of vaccine education delivery or provider who delivers vaccine education. Prenatal, nurse-delivered vaccine educational programs would be well accepted in this low-income population