Forecasting Levels of log Variables in Vector Autoregressions

Sometimes forecasts of the original variable are of interest although a variable appears in logarithms (logs) in a system of time series. In that case converting the forecast for the log of the variable to a naive forecast of the original variable by simply applying the exponential transformation is not optimal theoretically. A simple expression for the optimal forecast under normality assumptions is derived. Despite its theoretical advantages the optimal forecast is shown to be inferior to the naive forecast if specification and estimation uncertainty are taken into account. Hence, in practice using the exponential of the log forecast is preferable to using the optimal forecast.Vector autoregressive model, cointegration, forecast root mean square error

Asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in Australia

The unemployment rate in Australia is modelled as an asymmetric and nonlinear function of aggregate demand, productivity, real interest rates, the replacement ratio and the real exchange rate. If changes in unemployment are big, the management of of demand, real interest rates and the replacement ratio will be good instruments to start bringing it down. The model is developed by exploiting recent developments in automated model-selection procedures.unemployement, non-linearity, dynamic modelling, aggregate demand, real wages

The empirical relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve.

The dynamic properties of the The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPC) is analysed within the framework of a small system of linear difference equations. We evaluate the empirical results of existing studies which uses `Euroland' and US data. The debate has been centered around the goodness-of-fit, but this is a weak criterion since the NPC-fit is typically well approximated by purely statistical models (e.g., a random walk). Several other parametric tests are then considered, and the importance of modelling a system that includes the forcing variables as well as the rate of inflation is emphasized. We also highlight the role of existing studies in providing new information relative to that which underlies the typical NPC. This encompassing approach is applied to open economy versions of the NPC for UK and NorwayNew Keynesian Phillips curves, US inflation, Euro inflation, UK inflation, Norwegian inflation, Monetary policy, Dynamic stability conditions, Evaluation, Encompassing tests.

DYNAMIC MODELLING AND THE DEMAND FOR NARROW MONEY IN NORWAY

Useful results on statistical inference and reparameterizations when estimating error correction models are summarized. The suggested approach is tested in a pilot Monte Carlo study and illustrated by estimating a money demand function for Norway. The estimated model forecasts well 21 period ahead in spite of deregulation of credit markets during the forecast period

Forecasting Levels of log Variables in Vector Autoregressions

Sometimes forecasts of the original variable are of interest although a variable appears in logarithms (logs) in a system of time series. In that case converting the forecast for the log of the variable to a naive forecast of the original variable by simply applying the exponential transformation is not optimal theoretically. A simple expression for the optimal forecast under normality assumptions is derived. Despite its theoretical advantages the optimal forecast is shown to be inferior to the naive forecast if specification and estimation uncertainty are taken into account. Hence, in practice using the exponential of the log forecast is preferable to using the optimal forecast

FINDING THE RIGHT NOMINAL ANCHOR: THE COINTEGRATION OF MONEY, CREDIT AND NOMINAL INCOME IN NORWAY

Using cointegration techniques this paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between nominal GDP or domestic expenditure on the one hand and money and credit variables on the other. The main findings are: (1) In the period from 1966 to 1983 there is a relatively firm relationship between the nominal income variables and credit, which subsequentl breaks down completely during the ensuing period of credit market deregulation; (2~ Nominal income and the broad money stock, M2, are cointegrated throughout the period 1966 to 1989 within a model augmented by the own rate of interest on M2 and a bond yield. Thus M2, adjusted for the effects of interest rates affecting the demand for money, seems to provide the most reliable long—run anchor for nominal income in Norway in the period considered here