Bayesian analysis of exoplanet and binary orbits

We introduce BASE (Bayesian astrometric and spectroscopic exoplanet detection and characterisation tool), a novel program for the combined or separate Bayesian analysis of astrometric and radial-velocity measurements of potential exoplanet hosts and binary stars. The capabilities of BASE are demonstrated using all publicly available data of the binary Mizar A.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Stroke impact on mortality and psychologic morbidity within the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study.

BackgroundPoor socioeconomic and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) outcomes in survivors of childhood cancer can lead to distress and overall negatively impact the lives of these individuals. The current report has highlighted the impact of stroke and stroke recurrence on mortality, psychological HRQOL, and socioeconomic outcomes within the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS).MethodsThe CCSS is a retrospective cohort study with longitudinal follow-up concerning survivors of pediatric cancer who were diagnosed between 1970 and 1986. Mortality rates per 100 person-years were calculated across 3 periods: 1) prior to stroke; 2) after first stroke and before recurrent stroke; and 3) after recurrent stroke. Socioeconomic outcomes, the standardized Brief Symptoms Inventory-18, the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short Form Health Survey, and the CCSS-Neurocognitive Questionnaire also were assessed.ResultsAmong 14,358 participants (median age, 39.7 years), 224 had a stroke after their cancer diagnosis (single stroke in 161 patients and recurrent stroke in 63 patients). Based on 2636 deaths, all-cause late mortality rates were 0.70 (95% CI, 0.68-0.73) prior to stroke, 1.03 (95% CI, 0.73-1.46) after the first stroke, and 2.42 (95% CI, 1.48-3.94) after the recurrent stroke. Among 7304 survivors, those with stroke were more likely to live with a caregiver (single stroke odds ratio [OR], 2.3 [95% CI, 1.4-3.8]; and recurrent stroke OR, 5.3 [95% CI, 1.7-16.8]) compared with stroke-free survivors. Stroke negatively impacted task efficiency (single stroke OR, 2.4 [95% CI, 1.4-4.1] and recurrent stroke OR, 3.3 [95% CI, 1.1-10.3]) and memory (single stroke OR, 2.1 [95% CI, 1.2-3.7]; and recurrent stroke OR, 3.5 [95% CI, 1.1-10.5]).ConclusionsStroke and stroke recurrence are associated with increased mortality and negatively impact HRQOL measures in survivors of pediatric cancer

A search for antiproton decay at the Fermilab Antiproton Accumulator

We report on the search for anti-proton decay at the Fermilab Antiproton Accumulator Ring. Experiment 868 (APEX) was designed to search for two-body p̄ decay modes containing an electron in the final state (→e+X)(p̄→e+X) and to conduct an exploratory search for decays with a muon in the final state (→μ+X).(p̄→μ+X). Data were taken for three months in the Spring of 1995. Preliminary results yield lower limits on /BRτp̄/BR in the range of 105–106105–106 years for selected channels having an electron in the final state, improving on previous results by approximately 3 orders of magnitude. Additionally, we report the first preliminary results for the →μγp̄→μγ and →μπ0p̄→μπ0 decay channels. © 1997 American Institute of Physics.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/87906/2/419_1.pd

Standards and Practices for Forecasting

One hundred and thirty-nine principles are used to summarize knowledge about forecasting. They cover formulating a problem, obtaining information about it, selecting and applying methods, evaluating methods, and using forecasts. Each principle is described along with its purpose, the conditions under which it is relevant, and the strength and sources of evidence. A checklist of principles is provided to assist in auditing the forecasting process. An audit can help one to find ways to improve the forecasting process and to avoid legal liability for poor forecasting

Bipartite Entanglement in Continuous-Variable Cluster States

We present a study of the entanglement properties of Gaussian cluster states, proposed as a universal resource for continuous-variable quantum computing. A central aim is to compare mathematically-idealized cluster states defined using quadrature eigenstates, which have infinite squeezing and cannot exist in nature, with Gaussian approximations which are experimentally accessible. Adopting widely-used definitions, we first review the key concepts, by analysing a process of teleportation along a continuous-variable quantum wire in the language of matrix product states. Next we consider the bipartite entanglement properties of the wire, providing analytic results. We proceed to grid cluster states, which are universal for the qubit case. To extend our analysis of the bipartite entanglement, we adopt the entropic-entanglement width, a specialized entanglement measure introduced recently by Van den Nest M et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 97 150504 (2006), adapting their definition to the continuous-variable context. Finally we add the effects of photonic loss, extending our arguments to mixed states. Cumulatively our results point to key differences in the properties of idealized and Gaussian cluster states. Even modest loss rates are found to strongly limit the amount of entanglement. We discuss the implications for the potential of continuous-variable analogues of measurement-based quantum computation.Comment: 22 page

Risk factors for overweight and obesity after childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in North America and Switzerland: A comparison of two cohort studies.

BACKGROUND After childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), sequelae include overweight and obesity, yet with conflicting evidence. We compared the prevalence of overweight and obesity between ≥5-year ALL survivors from the North American Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) and the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (SCCSS) and described risk factors. METHODS We included adult childhood ALL survivors diagnosed between 1976 and 1999. We matched CCSS participants (3:1) to SCCSS participants by sex and attained age. We calculated body mass index (BMI) from self-reported height and weight for 1287 CCSS and 429 SCCSS participants; we then compared those with siblings (2034) in North America and Switzerland (678) siblings. We assessed risk factors for overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m2 ) and obesity (≥30 kg/m2 ) using multinomial regression. RESULTS We found overweight and obesity significantly more common among survivors in North America when compared with survivors in Switzerland [overweight: 30%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 27-32 vs. 24%, 21-29; obesity: 29%, 27-32 vs. 7%, 5-10] and siblings (overweight: 30%, 27-32 vs. 25%, 22-29; obesity: 24%, 22-26 vs. 6%, 4-8). Survivors in North America [odds ratio (OR) = 1.24, 1.01-1.53] and Switzerland (1.27, 0.74-2.21) were slightly more often obese than siblings. Among survivors, risk factors for obesity included residency in North America (5.8, 3.7-9.0); male (1.7, 1.3-2.3); attained age (≥45 years: 5.1, 2.4-10.8); Non-Hispanic Black (3.4, 1.6-7.0); low household income (2.3, 1.4-3.5); young age at diagnosis (1.6, 1.1-2.2). Cranial radiotherapy ≥18 Gray was only a risk factor for overweight (1.4, 1.0-1.8); steroids were not associated with overweight or obesity. Interaction tests found no evidence of difference in risk factors between cohorts. CONCLUSIONS Although treatment-related risk for overweight and obesity were similar between regions, higher prevalence among survivors in North America identifies important sociodemographic drivers for informing health policy and targeted intervention trials

Cardiac Substructure Radiation Dose and Risk of Late Cardiac Disease in Survivors of Childhood Cancer: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

PURPOSE: Radiation-associated cardiac disease is a major cause of morbidity/mortality among childhood cancer survivors. Radiation dose-response relationships for cardiac substructures and cardiac diseases remain unestablished. METHODS: Using the 25,481 5-year survivors of childhood cancer treated from 1970 to 1999 in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, we evaluated coronary artery disease (CAD), heart failure (HF), valvular disease (VD), and arrhythmia. We reconstructed radiation doses for each survivor to the coronary arteries, chambers, valves, and whole heart. Excess relative rate (ERR) models and piecewise exponential models evaluated dose-response relationships. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence 35 years from diagnosis was 3.9% (95% CI, 3.4 to 4.3) for CAD, 3.8% (95% CI, 3.4 to 4.2) for HF, 1.2% (95% CI, 1.0 to 1.5) for VD, and 1.4% (95% CI, 1.1 to 1.6) for arrhythmia. A total of 12,288 survivors (48.2%) were exposed to radiotherapy. Quadratic ERR models improved fit compared with linear ERR models for the dose-response relationship between mean whole heart and CAD, HF, and arrhythmia, suggesting a potential threshold dose; however, such departure from linearity was not observed for most cardiac substructure end point dose-response relationships. Mean doses of 5-9.9 Gy to the whole heart did not increase the risk of any cardiac diseases. Mean doses of 5-9.9 Gy to the right coronary artery (rate ratio [RR], 2.6 [95% CI, 1.6 to 4.1]) and left ventricle (RR, 2.2 [95% CI, 1.3 to 3.7]) increased risk of CAD, and to the tricuspid valve (RR, 5.5 [95% CI, 2.0 to 15.1]) and right ventricle (RR, 8.4 [95% CI, 3.7 to 19.0]) increased risk of VD. CONCLUSION: Among children with cancer, there may be no threshold dose below which radiation to the cardiac substructures does not increase the risk of cardiac diseases. This emphasizes their importance in modern treatment planning

Neurologic Morbidity and Functional Independence in Adult Survivors of Childhood Cancer

OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between neurologic late effects and attainment of independence in adult survivors of childhood cancer treated with central nervous system (CNS)-directed therapies. METHODS: A total of 7881 survivors treated with cranial radiation therapy (n = 4051; CRT) and/or intrathecal methotrexate (n = 4193; IT MTX) ([CNS-treated]; median age [range] = 25.5 years [18-48]; time since diagnosis = 17.7 years [6.8-30.2]) and 8039 without CNS-directed therapy reported neurologic conditions including stroke, seizure, neurosensory deficits, focal neurologic dysfunction, and migraines/severe headaches. Functional independence was assessed using latent class analysis with multiple indicators (independent living, assistance with routine and personal care needs, ability to work/attend school, attainment of driver\u27s license, marital/partner status). Multivariable regression models, adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and chronic health conditions, estimated odds ratios (OR) or relative risks (RR) for associations between neurologic morbidity, functional independence, and emotional distress. RESULTS: Among CNS-treated survivors, three classes of independence were identified: (1) moderately independent, never married, and non-independent living (78.7%); (2) moderately independent, unable to drive (15.6%); and (3) non-independent (5.7%). In contrast to 50% of non-CNS-treated survivors and 60% of siblings, a fourth fully independent class of CNS-treated survivors was not identified. History of stroke (OR = 2.50, 95% CI: 1.70-3.68), seizure (OR = 9.70, 95% CI: 7.37-12.8), neurosensory deficits (OR = 2.67, 95% CI: 2.16-3.31), and focal neurologic dysfunction (OR = 3.05, 95% CI: 2.40-3.88) were associated with non-independence among CNS-treated survivors. Non-independence was associated with emotional distress symptoms. INTERPRETATION: CNS-treated survivors do not attain full independence comparable to non-CNS-treated survivors or siblings. Interventions to promote independence may be beneficial for survivors with treatment-related neurological sequalae