Design Principles for Robust Fraud Detection: The Case of Stock Market Manipulations

We address the challenge of building an automated fraud detection system with robust classifiers that mitigate countermeasures from fraudsters in the field of information-based securities fraud. Our work involves developing design principles for robust fraud detection systems and presenting corresponding design features. We adopt an instrumentalist perspective that relies on theory-based linguistic features and ensemble learning concepts as justificatory knowledge for building robust classifiers. We perform a naive evaluation that assesses the classifiers’ performance to identify suspicious stock recommendations, and a robustness evaluation with a simulation that demonstrates a response to fraudster countermeasures. The results indicate that the use of theory-based linguistic features and ensemble learning can significantly increase the robustness of classifiers and contribute to the effectiveness of robust fraud detection. We discuss implications for supervisory authorities, industry, and individual users

News Cohesiveness: an Indicator of Systemic Risk in Financial Markets

Motivated by recent financial crises significant research efforts have been put into studying contagion effects and herding behaviour in financial markets. Much less has been said about influence of financial news on financial markets. We propose a novel measure of collective behaviour in financial news on the Web, News Cohesiveness Index (NCI), and show that it can be used as a systemic risk indicator. We evaluate the NCI on financial documents from large Web news sources on a daily basis from October 2011 to July 2013 and analyse the interplay between financial markets and financially related news. We hypothesized that strong cohesion in financial news reflects movements in the financial markets. Cohesiveness is more general and robust measure of systemic risk expressed in news, than measures based on simple occurrences of specific terms. Our results indicate that cohesiveness in the financial news is highly correlated with and driven by volatility on the financial markets

Extraction of temporal networks from term co-occurrences in online textual sources

A stream of unstructured news can be a valuable source of hidden relations between different entities, such as financial institutions, countries, or persons. We present an approach to continuously collect online news, recognize relevant entities in them, and extract time-varying networks. The nodes of the network are the entities, and the links are their co-occurrences. We present a method to estimate the significance of co-occurrences, and a benchmark model against which their robustness is evaluated. The approach is applied to a large set of financial news, collected over a period of two years. The entities we consider are 50 countries which issue sovereign bonds, and which are insured by Credit Default Swaps (CDS) in turn. We compare the country co-occurrence networks to the CDS networks constructed from the correlations between the CDS. The results show relatively small, but significant overlap between the networks extracted from the news and those from the CDS correlations

The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns

Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-know micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnormal returns during the peaks of Twitter volume. This is valid not only for the expected Twitter volume peaks (e.g., quarterly announcements), but also for peaks corresponding to less obvious events. We formalize the procedure by adapting the well-known "event study" from economics and finance to the analysis of Twitter data. The procedure allows to automatically identify events as Twitter volume peaks, to compute the prevailing sentiment (positive or negative) expressed in tweets at these peaks, and finally to apply the "event study" methodology to relate them to stock returns. We show that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns. The amount of cumulative abnormal returns is relatively low (about 1-2%), but the dependence is statistically significant for several days after the events

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