CAP REFORM, WHEAT PRICE INSTABILITY AND PRODUCER WELFARE

We use a simple nonlinear commodity market model to illustrate the impact of recent reforms of the CAP on the variability of EU and world wheat prices. Second, within an expected utility framework we estimate the transfer and risk effects on producer welfare due to market liberalizing reforms. We found that wheat producers were over-compensated for the losses due to lower prices following the 1992 reforms. The transfer effect clearly dominated while the risk component was small. Further, we did not find producer incomes to be more unstable following to the 1992 CAP reforms.price transmission, CAP reform, price instability, producer welfare, wheat market, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,

Tax projections in German states – manipulated by opportunistic incumbent parties?

This paper analyses the accuracy of the tax projections of West German states from a public choice perspective. It argues that state governments have the possibility and face incentives to manipulate tax projections. Evidence for the years 1992 – 2002 reveals a general upward bias in tax projections in election as well as non-election years. The degree of overestimation is higher, the less popular the incumbent party is. Partisanship and elections have no significant influence. To improve external control of state governments in the budget process, the process of tax projections must be made transparent. --tax projections,political parties,budget process,public expenditures

CONDITIONAL FORECASTING FOR THE U.S. DAIRY PRICE COMPLEX WITH A BAYESIAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL

A dynamic Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model of the U.S. dairy price complex is estimated based on the Normal-Wishart distribution. The Gibbs sample technique is use with the Normal-Wishart distribution to provide conditional forecasts on the future time-paths of the model variables. The conditional forecasts for key prices are examined. Confidence intervals are calculated for the conditional forecasts.Demand and Price Analysis,

Tax projections in German states – manipulated by opportunistic incumbent parties?

This paper analyses the accuracy of the tax projections of West German states from a public choice perspective. It argues that state governments have the possibility and face incentives to manipulate tax projections. Evidence for the years 1992 - 2002 reveals a general upward bias in tax projections in election as well as non-election years. The degree of overestimation is higher, the less popular the incumbent party is. Partisanship and elections have no significant influence. To improve external control of state governments in the budget process, the process of tax projections must be made transparent

The political economy of tax projections

Tax projections, Political parties, Budget process, Public deficits, Fiscal discipline, Fiscal transparency, H 72, D 72,

CAP REFORM, WHEAT PRICE INSTABILITY AND PRODUCER WELFARE

We use a simple nonlinear commodity market model to illustrate the impact of recent reforms of the CAP on the variability of EU and world wheat prices. Second, within an expected utility framework we estimate the transfer and risk effects on producer welfare due to market liberalizing reforms. We found that wheat producers were over-compensated for the losses due to lower prices following the 1992 reforms. The transfer effect clearly dominated while the risk component was small. Further, we did not find producer incomes to be more unstable following to the 1992 CAP reforms

CONDITIONAL FORECASTING FOR THE U.S. DAIRY PRICE COMPLEX WITH A BAYESIAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL

A dynamic Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model of the U.S. dairy price complex is estimated based on the Normal-Wishart distribution. The Gibbs sample technique is use with the Normal-Wishart distribution to provide conditional forecasts on the future time-paths of the model variables. The conditional forecasts for key prices are examined. Confidence intervals are calculated for the conditional forecasts