Reliable inference of exoplanet light curve parameters using deterministic and stochastic systematics models

Time-series photometry and spectroscopy of transiting exoplanets allow us to study their atmospheres. Unfortunately, the required precision to extract atmospheric information surpasses the design specifications of most general purpose instrumentation, resulting in instrumental systematics in the light curves that are typically larger than the target precision. Systematics must therefore be modelled, leaving the inference of light curve parameters conditioned on the subjective choice of models and model selection criteria. This paper aims to test the reliability of the most commonly used systematics models and model selection criteria. As we are primarily interested in recovering light curve parameters rather than the favoured systematics model, marginalisation over systematics models is introduced as a more robust alternative than simple model selection. This can incorporate uncertainties in the choice of systematics model into the error budget as well as the model parameters. Its use is demonstrated using a series of simulated transit light curves. Stochastic models, specifically Gaussian processes, are also discussed in the context of marginalisation over systematics models, and are found to reliably recover the transit parameters for a wide range of systematics functions. None of the tested model selection criteria - including the BIC - routinely recovered the correct model. This means that commonly used methods that are based on simple model selection may underestimate the uncertainties when extracting transmission and eclipse spectra from real data, and low-significance claims using such techniques should be treated with caution. In general, no systematics modelling techniques are perfect; however, marginalisation over many systematics models helps to mitigate poor model selection, and stochastic processes provide an even more flexible approach to modelling instrumental systematics.Comment: 15 pages, 2 figures, published in MNRAS, typo in footnote eq correcte

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne wind shear systems

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne windshear detection systems was developed to support a deployment study for future FAA ground-based windshear detection systems. The deployment study methodology assesses potential future safety enhancements beyond planned capabilities. The reactive airborne systems will be an integral part of planned windshear safety enhancements. The approach to evaluating reactive airborne systems involves separate analyses for both landing and take-off scenario. The analysis estimates the probability of effective warning considering several factors including NASA energy height loss characteristics, reactive alert timing, and a probability distribution for microburst strength

Determining the change in welfare estimates from introducing measurement error in non-linear choice models

Observed and unobserved characteristics of an individual are often used by researchers to explain choices over the provision of environmental goods. One means for identifying what is typically an unobserved characteristic, such as an attitude, is through some data reduction technique, such as factor analysis. However, the resultant variable represents the true attitude with measurement error, and hence, when included into a non-linear choice model, introduces bias in the model. There are well established methods to overcome this issue, which are seldom implemented. In an application to preferences over two water source alternatives for Perth in Western Australia, we use structural equation modeling within a discrete choice model to determine whether welfare measures are significantly impacted by ignoring measurement error in latent attitudes, and the advantage to policy makers from understanding what drives certain attitudes.contingent valuation, attitudes, structural equation modeling, recycled water, Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Q51, Q53, C13,

Adaptive control of a manipulator with a flexible link

An adaptive controller for a manipulator with one rigid link and one flexible link is presented. The performance and robustness of the controller are demonstrated by numerical simulation results. In the simulations, the manipulator moves in a gravitational field and a finite element model represents the flexible link

From manuscript catalogues to a handbook of Syriac literature: Modeling an infrastructure for Syriaca.org

Despite increasing interest in Syriac studies and growing digital availability of Syriac texts, there is currently no up-to-date infrastructure for discovering, identifying, classifying, and referencing works of Syriac literature. The standard reference work (Baumstark's Geschichte) is over ninety years old, and the perhaps 20,000 Syriac manuscripts extant worldwide can be accessed only through disparate catalogues and databases. The present article proposes a tentative data model for Syriaca.org's New Handbook of Syriac Literature, an open-access digital publication that will serve as both an authority file for Syriac works and a guide to accessing their manuscript representations, editions, and translations. The authors hope that by publishing a draft data model they can receive feedback and incorporate suggestions into the next stage of the project.Comment: Part of special issue: Computer-Aided Processing of Intertextuality in Ancient Languages. 15 pages, 4 figure

Interactions of Satellite Galaxies in Cosmological Dark Matter Halos

We present a statistical analysis of the interactions between satellite galaxies in cosmological dark matter halos taken from fully self-consistent high-resolution simulations of galaxy clusters. We show that the number distribution of satellite encounters has a tail that extends to as many as 3-4 encounters per orbit. On average 30% of the substructure population had at least one encounter (per orbit) with another satellite galaxy. However, this result depends on the age of the dark matter host halo with a clear trend for more interactions in younger systems. We also report a correlation between the number of encounters and the distance of the satellites to the centre of the cluster: satellite galaxies closer to the centre experience more interactions. However, this can be simply explained by the radial distribution of the substructure population and merely reflects the fact that the density of satellites is higher in those regions. In order to find substructure galaxies we applied (and present) a new technique based upon the N-body code MLAPM. This new halo finder MHF (MLAPM's-Halo-Finder) acts with exactly the same accuracy as the N-body code itself and is therefore free of any bias and spurious mismatch between simulation data and halo finding precision related to numerical effects.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, accepted by PASA (refereed contribution to the 5th Galactic Chemodynamics workshop, July 2003