Antifragility Analysis and Measurement Framework for Systems of Systems

The twenty-first century is defined by the social and technical hazards we face. A hazardous situation is a condition, or event, that threatens the well-being of people, organizations, societies, environments, and property. The most extreme of the hazards are considered X-Events and are an exogenous source of extreme stress to a system. X-Events can also be the unintended outputs of a system with both positive (serendipitous) and negative (catastrophic) consequences. Systems can vary in their ability to withstand these stress events. This ability exists on a continuum of fragility that ranges from fragile (degrading with stress), to robust (unchanged by stress), to antifragile (improving with stress). The state of the art does not include a method for analyzing or measuring fragility. Given that what we measure we will improve, the absence of a measurement approach limits the effectiveness of governance in making our systems less fragile and more robust if not antifragile. The authors present an antifragile system simulation model, and propose a framework for analyzing and measuring antifragility based on system of systems concepts. The framework reduces a multidimensional concept of fragility into a two-dimensional continuous interval scale

Learning by Doing - Energy Systems Management

Climate change concerns have confronted energy policy makers by unprecedented challenges in the 21st century. Revolution of renewable energy technologies, as well as more efficient energy systems, has been promising in the context of global warming. However, these technologies are not maturing and chaning. Consequently planning for development of these resources requires dealing with various multidisciplinary research questions such as financial feasibility of renewable energy projects. Nevertheless, there is considerable lack of education programs offering multidisciplinary approach for addressing the current energy challenges. Based on the 21st evolving energy landscape, an interdisciplinary graduate certificate course work was designed at Old Dominion University (ODU) in the Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Department. Likewise other engineering departments at ODU, this course was conducted through a hands on approach, by teaching updated decision making and project management tools and encouraging students use them in the real world problem. RETScreen software, which is a clean energy decision-making tool, was taught to the students and a photovoltaic project which was done at ODU, analyzed as students final project work. In this paper, we are going to summarize the results and conclusion of that project as learning by doing approach in our educational system

Resilience Quantification and Its Application to a Residential Building Subject to Hurricane Winds

In order to overcome negative consequences of a disaster, buildings and infrastructures need to be resilient. After a disaster occurs, they must get back to their normal operations as quickly as possible. Buildings and infrastructures should incorporate both pre-event (preparedness and mitigation) and post-event (response and recovery) resilience activities to minimize negative effects of a disaster. Quantitative approaches for measuring resilience for buildings and infrastructures need to be developed. A proposed methodology for quantification of resilience of a given building type based on different hurricane categories is presented. The formulation for the resilience quantification is based on a model embedding several distinct parameters (for example, structural loss ratios, conditional probabilities of exceeding for damage states, estimated and actual recovery times, wind speed probability). The proposed resilience formulation is applied to a residential building type selected from HAZUS.(i) Numerical results of resilience for the selected residential building type against Category 1, 2, and 3 hurricanes are presented in a dashboard representation. Resilience performance indicators between different types of buildings, which are identical except for their roof types, have been evaluated in order to present applicability of the proposed methodology

The Space Infrastructure Vulnerability Cadastre: Orbital Debris Critical Loads

Orbital debris from over 50 years of human activity in space are threatening the operations of existing and future satellites and the sustainability of high-value satellite orbits. This technical memorandum calls for the development of a cadastre that depicts the vulnerability of critical satellite orbits to accumulating orbital debris. A space infrastructure vulnerability cadastre could serve as a governance tool for use by developers and operators of critical space infrastructures to better communicate the current and future vulnerability of high-value orbits to the accumulation of orbital debris. These high-value orbits are susceptible to loss for decades or centuries if generation of orbital debris continues unabated. The concept of environmental critical loads is applied to heavily used orbits as a way to indicate acceptable debris density for satellite operations, and when debris density / risk thresholds approach unacceptable levels that reduce the probability of sustaining spacecraft operations in those orbits

Handling Emergency Management in [an] Object Oriented Modeling Environment

It has been understood that protection of a nation from extreme disasters is a challenging task. Impacts of extreme disasters on a nation's critical infrastructures, economy and society could be devastating. A protection plan itself would not be sufficient when a disaster strikes. Hence, there is a need for a holistic approach to establish more resilient infrastructures to withstand extreme disasters. A resilient infrastructure can be defined as a system or facility that is able to withstand damage, but if affected, can be readily and cost-effectively restored. The key issue to establish resilient infrastructures is to incorporate existing protection plans with comprehensive preparedness actions to respond, recover and restore as quickly as possible, and to minimize extreme disaster impacts. Although national organizations will respond to a disaster, extreme disasters need to be handled mostly by local emergency management departments. Since emergency management departments have to deal with complex systems, they have to have a manageable plan and efficient organizational structures to coordinate all these systems. A strong organizational structure is the key in responding fast before and during disasters, and recovering quickly after disasters. In this study, the entire emergency management is viewed as an enterprise and modelled through enterprise management approach. Managing an enterprise or a large complex system is a very challenging task. It is critical for an enterprise to respond to challenges in a timely manner with quick decision making. This study addresses the problem of handling emergency management at regional level in an object oriented modelling environment developed by use of TopEase software. Emergency Operation Plan of the City of Hampton, Virginia, has been incorporated into TopEase for analysis. The methodology used in this study has been supported by a case study on critical infrastructure resiliency in Hampton Roads

Editorial: International Journal of Critical Infrastructures

(First paragraph) This special issue of the International Journal of Critical Infrastructures is a compilation of the papers presented at the Fourth Annual Conference on Next Generation Infrastructures held in Virginia Beach, Virginia, in November, 2011. This conference was sponsored by Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia, USA and by the Next Generation Infrastructures Foundation, Delft, The Netherlands. The participants travelled from around the globe to converse about ideas that address both concerns for the present and optimism for the future of critical infrastructures. The conference, held in the USA for the first time, provided a platform for vibrant discussions on multiple aspects of critical infrastructures – infrastructures deemed essential for the functioning of our societies. Thought provoking questions were posed and discussions ensued on a wide range topics ranging from infrastructure vulnerability and resilience, including methods for design and operation, to modelling and analysis, including assessment and evaluation methods. Central to the deliberations was the theme that addressing the concerns of next generation critical infrastructures is a primary challenge for the coming decades. Tested by increasing complexity, scare resources, and emerging threats, the future of critical infrastructure development will continue to be a source of challenges, proposed solutions, and continuing research. This conference provided a venue to identify existing and future infrastructure challenges that must be addressed, to highlight advances in practice and research, and finally to provide case studies on methods to address the future of critical infrastructures

Strengthening Urban Resilience: Understanding the Interdependencies of Outer Space and Strategic Planning for Sustainable Smart Environments

The conventional approach to urban planning has predominantly focused on horizontal dimensions, disregarding the potential risks originating from outer space. This paper aims to initiate a discourse on the vertical dimension of cities, which is influenced by outer space, as an essential element of strategic urban planning. Through an examination of a highly disruptive incident in outer space involving a collision between the Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 satellites, this article elucidates the intricate interdependencies between urban areas and outer space infrastructure and services. Leveraging the principles of critical infrastructure protection, which bridge the urban and outer space domains, and employing simulation methods and software, this study articulates the intricate governance complexities of urban security and presents viable solutions for its enhancement. Consequently, the study contributes to the ongoing deliberations regarding the spatial integration of security practices by providing scholarly discourse on urban governance with potential strategies for cultivating sustainable smart cities. In essence, the intrinsic resilience of urban areas heavily relies on the interconnections between cities and outer space, necessitating urban strategists to acknowledge and comprehend these intricate interdependencies. To ensure sustainable urban development, it is imperative to fortify smart cities’ resilience against space debris through the implementation of more stringent regulations

New Dimensions for a Challenging Security Environment: Growing Exposure to Critical Space Infrastructure Disruption Risk

Space systems have become a key enabler for a wide variety of applications that are vital to the functioning of advanced societies. The trend is one of quantitative and qualitative increase of this dependence, so much so that space systems have been described as a new example of critical infrastructure. This article argues that the existence of critical space infrastructures implies the emergence of a new category of disasters related to disruption risks. We inventory those risks and make policy recommendations for what is, ultimately, a resilience governance issue

Exploring Blockchain Adoption Supply Chains: Opportunities and Challenges

Acquisition Management / Grant technical reportAcquisition Research Program Sponsored Report SeriesSponsored Acquisition Research & Technical ReportsIn modern supply chains, acquisition often occurs with the involvement of a network of organizations. The resilience, efficiency, and effectiveness of supply networks are crucial for the viability of acquisition. Disruptions in the supply chain require adequate communication infrastructure to ensure resilience. However, supply networks do not have a shared information technology infrastructure that ensures effective communication. Therefore decision-makers seek new methodologies for supply chain management resilience. Blockchain technology offers new decentralization and service delegation methods that can transform supply chains and result in a more flexible, efficient, and effective supply chain. This report presents a framework for the application of Blockchain technology in supply chain management to improve resilience. In the first part of this study, we discuss the limitations and challenges of the supply chain system that can be addressed by integrating Blockchain technology. In the second part, the report provides a comprehensive Blockchain-based supply chain network management framework. The application of the proposed framework is demonstrated using modeling and simulation. The differences in the simulation scenarios can provide guidance for decision-makers who consider using the developed framework during the acquisition process.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Critical Space Infrastructure: A Complex System Governance Perspective

This paper examines the applicability of Complex System Governance (CSG) to advance the Critical Space Infrastructure field (CSI). CSI encompasses space related hardware, workforce, environment, facilities, and businesses that are necessary for societal well-being. CSI is increasing in importance as more societal serving systems are becoming dependent on CSI to operate. Given this increasing dependence on CSI, societal sectors are increasingly at risk should something go wrong with CSI upon which they depend. CSI has been developing is a fragmented way and lacks coherent organization. CSG is focused on design, execution, and evolution of system functions that provide for communications, control, coordination, and integration of complex systems. CSG provides structure and order to complex systems through a rigorous grounding in systems theory (the axioms and propositions that govern behavior, performance, and structure of complex systems), management cybernetics (the science of organizational structure), and system governance (focused on provision of direction, oversight, and accountability). In this paper the intersection of CSI and CSG is explored with respect to the value that can accrue to both fields through their intersection and joint development. The opportunities that lie at the intersection of these fields are examined. This paper concludes the exploration with a discussion of the implications for movement forward in bringing the value offered by CSG to the governance of space-based critical infrastructures