Trends in the size of the nation's homeless population during the 1980s: A surprising result

There are good national estimates of the number of homeless people in shelters in 1984, 1988, and 1990, but only in 1987 is there a reliable estimate of the number of people sleeping in streets. The large increase in the sheltered homeless population between 1984 and 1987-88 could reflect a shift of the homeless from street to shelters rather than a growth in total homelessness. Data from a number of local studies of homeless populations in U.S. cities in the 1980s have made it possible to estimate the ratio of the number of homeless on the street to the number of homeless in shelters and thereby to estimate the size of the national homeless population over this period with some degree of accuracy. Our estimates indicate that the expansion of shelters over the decade did have the effect of reducing the proportion of the homeless living on the street. Still, when we combine the estimated ratios with the estimates of the shelter population in 1984, 1987, 1988, and 1990, we find that homelessness about doubled between 1984 and 1987. We also find that homelessness declined between 1987 and 1990. At its peak, the number of people literally homeless on any given night was less than 400,000. Finally, our results also provide evidence that pure enumerations or censuses of the homeless population lead to undercounts. Both sample censuses and retrospective interview studies provide more complete counts.

The Fragile Families and Child Well-Being Study: Questions, Design, and a Few Preliminary Results

Nonmarital childbearing is important because it is increasing and because there is concern (and some evidence) that it is damaging to children and perhaps parents as well. We refer to the unions of unwed parents as fragile families because they are similar to traditional families in many respects, but more vulnerable. Most people believe that children in fragile families would be better off if their parents lived together and their fathers were more involved in their upbringing. Indeed, public policy is now attempting to enlarge the role of unwed fathers both by cutting public cash support for single mothers and by strengthening paternity establishment and child support enforcement. Yet the scientific basis for these policies is weak. We know very little about the men who father children outside marriage, and we know even less about the nature of their relationships with their children and their children’s mothers. The Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (FFS) is designed to remedy this situation by following a new birth cohort of approximately 4,700 children, including 3,600 children born to unmarried parents. The new data will be representative of nonmarital births in each of 20 cities and in U.S. cities with populations over 200,000. Both mothers and fathers will be followed for at least 4 years, and in-home assessments of children’s heath and development will be carried out when the child is 4 years old. The survey is designed to address the following questions: (1) What are the conditions and capabilities of new unwed parents, especially fathers? (2) What is the nature of the relationships in fragile families? (3) What factors push new unwed parents together and what factors pull them apart? In particular, how do labor markets, welfare, and child support public policies affect family formation? (4) How do children fare in fragile families and how is their well-being affected by parental capacities and relationships, and by public policies? The paper discusses what we know about each of these questions and how the FFS addresses each of them. It also presents preliminary findings based on data from Austin, Texas, and Oakland, California.

Interaction effects of a child tax credit, national health insurance, and assured child support

If the government offered a refundable tax credit for children, national health insurance, and an assured child support benefit to all families with children - poor families as well as nonpoor families - what would happen to poverty, welfare dependency, and other related issues? The authors simulate the effects of each program operating on its own and of all three acting in concert. They find that the impacts of the programs interacting with one another would be much larger than the sum of the impacts produced by each program alone. With the three programs in place, the poverty rate would fall by 43 percent, the AFDC caseload would shrink by 22 percent, and the annual incomes of poor families would rise by $2500. In addition, AFDC recipients would work more hours. Data come from the 1987 Survey of Income and Program Participation.

Child support reform: some analysis of the 1999 white paper

This paper uses a sample of lone mothers (and former lone mothers who are now repartnered) drawn from the 1997 Family Resources Survey to analyse the potential effects of reforming the UK system of Child Support. The main deficiency of the data is that non-resident fathers cannot be matched to the mothers in the data and this is overcome by exploiting information from another dataset which gives the joint distribution of the characteristics of separated parents. The effects of reforming the Child Support system is simulated for the amount of maintenance liabilities, the amount paid and the net incomes of households containing mothers with care and households containing non-resident fathers. The likely effects of the reform are simulated at various levels of compliance. The analysis highlights the need for further research into the incentive effects of Child Support on individual behaviour

Improvement of the GEOS-5 AGCM upon Updating the Air-Sea Roughness Parameterization

The impact of an air-sea roughness parameterization over the ocean that more closely matches recent observations of air-sea exchange is examined in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model. Surface wind biases in the GEOS-5 AGCM are decreased by up to 1.2m/s. The new parameterization also has implications aloft as improvements extend into the stratosphere. Many other GCMs (both for operational weather forecasting and climate) use a similar class of parameterization for their air-sea roughness scheme. We therefore expect that results from GEOS-5 are relevant to other models as well

Sensory processing in autism across exteroceptive and interoceptive domains

Objective: The current article discusses recent literature on perceptual processing in autism and aims to provide a critical review of existing theories of autistic perception and suggestions for future work. Method: We review findings detailing exteroceptive and interoceptive processing in autism and discuss their neurobiological basis as well as potential links and analogies between sensory domains. Results: Many atypicalities of autistic perception described in the literature can be explained either by weak neural synchronization or by atypical perceptual inference. Evidence for both mechanisms is found across the different sensory domains considered in this review. Conclusions: We argue that weak neural synchronization and atypical perceptual inference might be complementary neural mechanisms that describe the complex bottom-up and top-down differences of autistic perception, respectively. Future work should be sensitive to individual differences to determine if divergent patterns of sensory processing are observed within individuals, rather than looking for global changes at a group level. Determining whether divergent patterns of exteroceptive and interoceptive sensory processing may contribute to prototypical social and cognitive characteristics of autism may drive new directions in our conceptualization of autism

On the Influence of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature on the Arctic Winter Climate

Differences between two ensembles of Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model simulations isolate the impact of North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the Arctic winter climate. One ensemble of extended winter season forecasts is forced by unusually high SSTs in the North Pacific, while in the second ensemble SSTs in the North Pacific are unusually low. High Low differences are consistent with a weakened Western Pacific atmospheric teleconnection pattern, and in particular, a weakening of the Aleutian low. This relative change in tropospheric circulation inhibits planetary wave propagation into the stratosphere, in turn reducing polar stratospheric temperature in mid- and late winter. The number of winters with sudden stratospheric warmings is approximately tripled in the Low ensemble as compared with the High ensemble. Enhanced North Pacific SSTs, and thus a more stable and persistent Arctic vortex, lead to a relative decrease in lower stratospheric ozone in late winter, affecting the April clear-sky UV index at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes

The Arctic Vortex in March 2011: A Dynamical Perspective

Despite the record ozone loss observed in March 2011, dynamical conditions in the Arctic stratosphere were unusual but not unprecedented. Weak planetary wave driving in February preceded cold anomalies in t he polar lower stratosphere in March and a relatively late breakup of the Arctic vortex in April. La Nina conditions and the westerly phas e of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) were observed in March 201 1. Though these conditions are generally associated with a stronger vortex in mid-winter, the respective cold anomalies do not persist t hrough March. Therefore, the La Nina and QBO-westerly conditions cannot explain the observed cold anomalies in March 2011. In contrast, po sitive sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific may ha ve contributed to the unusually weak tropospheric wave driving and s trong Arctic vortex in late winter 2011

Drivers of the Recent Tropical Expansion in the Southern Hemisphere: Changing SSTs or Ozone Depletion?

Observational evidence indicates that the southern edge of the Hadley cell (HC) has shifted southward during austral summer in recent decades. However, there is no consensus on the cause of this shift, with several studies reaching opposite conclusions as to the relative role of changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and stratospheric ozone depletion in causing this shift. Here, the authors perform a meta-analysis of the extant literature on this subject and quantitatively compare the results of all published studies that have used single-forcing model integrations to isolate the role of different factors on the HC expansion during austral summer. It is shown that the weight of the evidence clearly points to stratospheric ozone depletion as the dominant driver of the tropical summertime expansion over the period in which an ozone hole was formed (1979 to late 1990s), although SST trends have contributed to trends since then. Studies that have claimed SSTs as the major driver of tropical expansion since 1979 have used prescribed ozone fields that underrepresent the observed Antarctic ozone depletion