Adaptation d'un modèle de culture et conception d'un modèle de décision pour la gestion conjointe de l'irrigation et de la fertilisation azotée du blé dur

Les changements de contexte économique, réglementaire et environnementaux auxquels la production agricole doit faire face nécessitent d'évaluer de nouvelles stratégies de gestion conjointe de l'irrigation et de la fertilisation pour blé dur. Le travail de thèse a suivi un double objectif : i) adapter le modèle de culture STICS à différents cultivars de blé dur, et ii) concevoir un modèle de décision des pratiques de fertilisation azotée et d'irrigation. Une base de données comportant 373 traitements expérimentaux issus de douze années climatiques a été constituée à partir d'expérimentations réalisées avant la thèse à l'INRA et ARVALIS puis mobilisée pour conduire le travail d'adaptation et d'évaluation du modèle de culture. L'adaptation du modèle de culture a consisté dans un premier temps en un travail d'estimation de paramètres par optimisation mathématique pour sept cultivars de blé dur. Une analyse comparative de trois démarches a permis de sélectionner la démarche pertinente pour obtenir un modèle précis et robuste pour la simulation du rendement, de la teneur en azote des grains et des variables intermédiaires (Biomasse aérienne, surface foliaire, quantité d'azote absorbée) dans différents contextes pédo-climatiques (large gamme de niveaux de nutrition hydrique et azotée). Cette étude fournit un cadre méthodologique pour l'estimation des paramètres des modèles de culture. Les résultats de ce travail ont de plus démontré que le modèle de culture, avec son formalisme initial, n'était pas sensible à l'effet du fractionnement de la fertilisation sur la quantité d'azote et la teneur en azote des grains. L'adaptation est appréhendée dans un deuxième temps par la modification du formalisme d'accumulation de l'azote dans les grains par l'introduction d'un formalisme inspiré du modèle AZODYN. La modification n'a pas amélioré suffisamment la sensibilité du modèle à l'effet du fractionnement sur la teneur en azote des grains. Le manque de données expérimentales en phase post-floraison et notamment la dynamique de la sénescence foliaire n'a pas permis d'améliorer la capacité du modèle de culture à simuler les processus d'absorption d'azote du sol après la floraison. A partir d'une enquête auprès de 29 irrigants de blé dur, les pratiques et les stratégies de fertilisation azotée et d'irrigation, ainsi que les décisions stratégiques et tactiques ont été identifiées et formalisées dans un modèle de décision. Une évaluation de stratégies conçues sur la base des résultats d'enquêtes est proposée comme illustration de l'utilisation du modèle STICS adapté au blé dur et du modèle de décision formalisé. Le couplage informatique du modèle de culture STICS au modèle de décision permettra de disposer d'un modèle bio-décisionnel et ainsi pourra être utilisé pour concevoir et évaluer des stratégies de gestion conjointe de l'irrigation et de la fertilisation azotée du blé dur adaptées au contexte des exploitations agricoles. ABSTRACT : Changes in economic, regulatory and environmental context of agricultural production raise the need for research to evaluate and propose new strategies for joint management of irrigation and fertilization for durum wheat. The thesis had two objectives: i) adapting the simulation crop model STICS to different durum wheat cultivars, and ii) designing a decision model for nitrogen fertilization and irrigation practices. A database containing 373 experimental treatments carried out by INRA and ARVALIS before this PhD work was established and mobilized to conduct the adaptation and the evaluation of crop model. The adaptation of the crop model was first conducted through durum wheat parameter estimation by mathematical optimization. A comparative analysis of three approaches was conducted to select an appropriate approach to obtain an accurate and robust crop model for the simulation of grain yield, grain nitrogen content and intermediate variables (biomass, leaf area, amount of nitrogen absorbed) in different soil and climatic conditions. This study provided a methodological framework for crop models parameters estimation. The results of this study showed that the crop model, with its original formalism, was not sensitive to the effect of splitting of fertilization on the grain nitrogen content and protein concentration. The adaptation was then conducted through the modification of the formalism of nitrogen accumulation in grains by introducing a formalism inspired the AZODYN crop model. The modification did not significantly improve the model's sensitivity to the effect of N splitting on the nitrogen content of grain. The results of this study call into question the ability of crop model to simulate the absorption process of nitrogen after flowering. Unfortunately the lack of data concerning post-flowering leaf area dynmaics did not allow improving the model. From a survey of 29 irrigators, practices and strategies of nitrogen fertilization and irrigation, as well as strategic and tactical decisions have been identified and formalized in a decision model. An evaluation of strategies based on survey results is given as an illustration of the potential use of the STICS soil-crop model and the decision rules identified and formalised. The coupling of the crop model to the model decision will allow proposing and evaluating strategies adapted to the farm context for joint management of irrigation and nitrogen fertilization of durum wheat

Adaptation d'un modèle de culture et conception d'un modèle de décision pour la gestion conjointe de l'irrigation et de la fertilisation azotée du blé dur

Les changements de contexte économique, réglementaire et environnementaux auxquels la production agricole doit faire face nécessitent d'évaluer de nouvelles stratégies de gestion conjointe de l'irrigation et de la fertilisation pour blé dur. Le travail de thèse a suivi un double objectif : i) adapter le modèle de culture STICS à différents cultivars de blé dur, et ii) concevoir un modèle de décision des pratiques de fertilisation azotée et d'irrigation. Une base de données comportant 373 traitements expérimentaux issus de douze années climatiques a été constituée à partir d'expérimentations réalisées avant la thèse à l'INRA et ARVALIS puis mobilisée pour conduire le travail d'adaptation et d'évaluation du modèle de culture. L'adaptation du modèle de culture a consisté dans un premier temps en un travail d'estimation de paramètres par optimisation mathématique pour sept cultivars de blé dur. Une analyse comparative de trois démarches a permis de sélectionner la démarche pertinente pour obtenir un modèle précis et robuste pour la simulation du rendement, de la teneur en azote des grains et des variables intermédiaires (Biomasse aérienne, surface foliaire, quantité d'azote absorbée) dans différents contextes pédo-climatiques (large gamme de niveaux de nutrition hydrique et azotée). Cette étude fournit un cadre méthodologique pour l'estimation des paramètres des modèles de culture. Les résultats de ce travail ont de plus démontré que le modèle de culture, avec son formalisme initial, n'était pas sensible à l'effet du fractionnement de la fertilisation sur la quantité d'azote et la teneur en azote des grains. L'adaptation est appréhendée dans un deuxième temps par la modification du formalisme d'accumulation de l'azote dans les grains par l'introduction d'un formalisme inspiré du modèle AZODYN. La modification n'a pas amélioré suffisamment la sensibilité du modèle à l'effet du fractionnement sur la teneur en azote des grains. Le manque de données expérimentales en phase post-floraison et notamment la dynamique de la sénescence foliaire n'a pas permis d'améliorer la capacité du modèle de culture à simuler les processus d'absorption d'azote du sol après la floraison. A partir d'une enquête auprès de 29 irrigants de blé dur, les pratiques et les stratégies de fertilisation azotée et d'irrigation, ainsi que les décisions stratégiques et tactiques ont été identifiées et formalisées dans un modèle de décision. Une évaluation de stratégies conçues sur la base des résultats d'enquêtes est proposée comme illustration de l'utilisation du modèle STICS adapté au blé dur et du modèle de décision formalisé. Le couplage informatique du modèle de culture STICS au modèle de décision permettra de disposer d'un modèle bio-décisionnel et ainsi pourra être utilisé pour concevoir et évaluer des stratégies de gestion conjointe de l'irrigation et de la fertilisation azotée du blé dur adaptées au contexte des exploitations agricolesChanges in economic, regulatory and environmental context of agricultural production raise the need for research to evaluate and propose new strategies for joint management of irrigation and fertilization for durum wheat. The thesis had two objectives: i) adapting the simulation crop model STICS to different durum wheat cultivars, and ii) designing a decision model for nitrogen fertilization and irrigation practices. A database containing 373 experimental treatments carried out by INRA and ARVALIS before this PhD work was established and mobilized to conduct the adaptation and the evaluation of crop model. The adaptation of the crop model was first conducted through durum wheat parameter estimation by mathematical optimization. A comparative analysis of three approaches was conducted to select an appropriate approach to obtain an accurate and robust crop model for the simulation of grain yield, grain nitrogen content and intermediate variables (biomass, leaf area, amount of nitrogen absorbed) in different soil and climatic conditions. This study provided a methodological framework for crop models parameters estimation. The results of this study showed that the crop model, with its original formalism, was not sensitive to the effect of splitting of fertilization on the grain nitrogen content and protein concentration. The adaptation was then conducted through the modification of the formalism of nitrogen accumulation in grains by introducing a formalism inspired the AZODYN crop model. The modification did not significantly improve the model's sensitivity to the effect of N splitting on the nitrogen content of grain. The results of this study call into question the ability of crop model to simulate the absorption process of nitrogen after flowering. Unfortunately the lack of data concerning post-flowering leaf area dynmaics did not allow improving the model. From a survey of 29 irrigators, practices and strategies of nitrogen fertilization and irrigation, as well as strategic and tactical decisions have been identified and formalized in a decision model. An evaluation of strategies based on survey results is given as an illustration of the potential use of the STICS soil-crop model and the decision rules identified and formalised. The coupling of the crop model to the model decision will allow proposing and evaluating strategies adapted to the farm context for joint management of irrigation and nitrogen fertilization of durum wheatTOULOUSE-INP (315552154) / SudocSudocFranceF

Comparative study of meningitis dynamics across nine African countries: a global perspective

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Meningococcal meningitis (MM) represents an important public health problem especially in the "meningitis belt" in Africa. Although seasonality of epidemics is well known with outbreaks usually starting in the dry season, pluri-annual cycles are still less understood and even studied. In this context, we aimed at study MM cases time series across 9 sahelo-sudanian countries to detect pluri-annual periodicity and determine or not synchrony between dynamics. This global and comparative approach allows a better understanding of MM evolution in time and space in the long-term.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We used the most adapted mathematical tool to time series analyses, the wavelet method. We showed that, despite a strong consensus on the existence of a global pluri-annual cycle of MM epidemics, it is not the case. Indeed, even if a clear cycle is detected in all countries, these cycles are not as permanent and regular as generally admitted since many years. Moreover, no global synchrony was detected although many countries seemed correlated.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These results of the first large-scale study of MM dynamics highlight the strong interest and the necessity of a global survey of MM in order to be able to predict and prevent large epidemics by adapted vaccination strategy. International cooperation in Public Health and cross-disciplines studies are highly recommended to hope controlling this infectious disease.</p

Statistical Deviations from the Theoretical only-SBU Model to Estimate MCU rates in SRAMs

This paper addresses a well-known problem that occurs when memories are exposed to radiation: the determination if a bitflip is isolated or if it belongs to a multiple event. As it is unusual to know the physical layout of the memory, this paper proposes to evaluate the statistical properties of the sets of corrupted addresses and to compare the results with a mathematical prediction model where all of the events are SBUs. A set of rules easy to implement in common programming languages can be iteratively applied if anomalies are observed, thus yielding a classification of errors quite closer to reality (more than 80% accuracy in our experiments)

Single Event Upsets under 14-MeV Neutrons in a 28-nm SRAM-based FPGA in Static Mode

A sensitivity characterization of a Xilinx Artix-7 FPGA against 14.2 MeV neutrons is presented. The content of the internal SRAMs and flip-flops were downloaded in a PC and compared with a golden version of it. Flipped cells were identified and classified as cells of the configuration RAM, BRAM, or flip-flops. SBUs and MCUs with multiplicities ranging from 2 to 8 were identified using a statistical method. Possible shapes of multiple events are also investigated, showing a trend to follow wordlines. Finally, MUSCA SEP3 was used to make assesment for actual environments and an improvement of SEU injection test is proposed

Using Risk Assessment as Part of a Systems Approach to the Control and Prevention of HPAIV H5N1

Since its emergence in China in 1996, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 has spread across Asia, Africa, and Europe. Countries had to promptly implement control and prevention measures. Numerous research and capacity building initiatives were conducted in the affected regions to improve the capacity of national animal health services to support the development of risk-based mitigation strategies. This paper reviews and discusses risk assessments initiated in several South-East Asian and African countries under one of these projects. Despite important data gaps, the risk assessment results improved the ability of policy makers to design appropriate risk management policies. Disease risk was strongly influenced by various human behavioral factors. The ongoing circulation of HPAIV H5N1 in several Asian countries and in Egypt, despite major disease control efforts, supports the need for an interdisciplinary approach to development of tailored risk management policies, in accordance with the EcoHealth paradigm and the broad concept of risk governance. In particular, active stakeholders engagement and integration of economic and social studies into the policy making process are needed to optimize compliance and sustainable behavioral changes, thereby increasing the effectiveness of mitigation strategies

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat