Capital services estimates in Portuguese industries, 1977-2003

This paper presents capital services estimates for 26 Portuguese industries for the 1977-2003 period. The estimation procedure follows an integrated approach under which the flows of capital services are approximated as a proportion of the capital stock converted into standard efficiency units. Our findings suggest a close proximity between the evolution of capital flows and the observed fluctuations of Portuguese macroeconomic growth. TFP growth estimates based on growth accounting reveal, furthermore, a very disappointing performance of the Portuguese economy during the period under study,with an average annual rate of TFP growth of 0.8% being observed. Performance varies across industries, but the bulk of activities show very modest rates of TFP growth.Capital services, TFP, Portugal

Portugal and Spain: catching up and falling behind. A comparative analysis of productivity trends and their causes, 1980-2007

A number of studies in the literature have recently explored the causes behind the European productivity slowdown from the mid-1990s onwards and the correlative increase in the productivity gap between Europe and the United States (e.g., van Ark et al, 2008; Maudos et al, 2008; van Ark and Inklaar, 2005). Much less attention has been given, however, to the specific role of the EU peripheral countries in the process. In this paper we focus on the growth performances of two of such countries: Portugal and Spain. After a period of successful catch-up relative to the EU core, the two countries, which have a number of historical and economic features in common, have recently faced increasing difficulties in closing the gap to the EU. In the last decade, Spain has shown one of the worst productivity growth records among EU-members, whereas Portugal remained quite distant from European average productivity levels, and has increased the gap in per capita income levels. In this paper an attempt is made to shed light on the causes behind the overall disappointing performance of both countries, by focusing on the role of structural change on the process. An extensive literature, from both mainstream and more heterodox streams of research, suggests that sectoral specialization may have a major impact on productivity growth, by influencing the extent to which innovation and technological progress can be achieved. In order to account for these effects, an analysis of productivity trends both at the macroeconomic and industry levels of analysis is undertaken, using growth accounting and shiftshare techniques. The analysis is based on data from the EU-KLEMS database for Spain and the EU-core, and on an update and refinement of Silva´s (2010) labor and multifactor productivity estimates for Portugal. By investigating the different sources of productivity growth between 1980 and 2007, it is argued that an important factor explaining the growth difficulties in both countries is related to their difficulties in promoting important changes in their economic structures. In particular, the recent deterioration of economic growth may be seen as reflecting their incapacity in making a strong leap towards a more ‘modern’ industry structure.Productivity, Economic growth, Structural change, Technology

Are Voters Rationally Ignorant? An Empirical Study for Portuguese Local Elections

The application of the rational choice postulate to a political context invariably leads to the conclusion that most voters are ill informed when making the decision for whom to vote. In this paper, the authors do an empirical evaluation of the rational ignorance theory, based on the results of the 1997 Portuguese Local Elections. The results only partially sustain the hypothesis of rational ignorance, although it is also possible to identify several limitations that prevent the establishment of definite conclusions in this specific field.JEL Classification: H7 Key words: Voter’s Behaviour; Local Elections; Local Governments; Portugal.

Surveying structural change: seminal contributions and a bibliometric account

The main aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive survey of the economic literature on structural change. Along with an insightful literature review of the seminal contributions in the field, we perform a quantitative analysis that takes into account all the theoretical and empirical articles on the subject that were published from 1969 onwards. This effort to gather the relevant documentation is based on a review of 910 abstracts from articles published in all the economic journals found in the Econlit database over the past forty years. According to our quantitative analysis, structural change analysis received a major boost in the 1990s, with a considerable increase in the number of articles published on the matter. The marked rise in interest seems to be primarily related to the growing concern to find explanations for the process of technological change and its effects on the economy. In the first half of the current decade technological change comprises a predominant area of research, accounting for about one quarter of the articles published. Despite the increased formalism observed in the 1990s, our results further highlight that the bulk of the research in this field remains empirically led. Furthermore, and quite surprisingly, discussions concerning ICTs do not seem to have been translated so far into a substantial increase in research on structural change-related issues.Structural Change; Bibliometrics; Econlit

Does structure influence growth? A panel data econometric assessment of ‘relatively less developed’ countries, 1979-2003

Neo-Schumpeterian streams of research emphasize the close relationship between changes in economic structure in favour of high-skill and high-tech branches and rapid economic growth. They identify the emergence of a new technological paradigm, strongly based on the application of information and communication technologies (ICTs), in the 1970s, arguing that in such periods of transition and emergence of new techno-economic paradigms the relatively less developed countries have higher opportunities to catch-up. Although this debate is theoretically well documented, the empirics seem to lag behind the theory. In this paper, we contribute to this literature by adding illuminating evidence on the issue. More precisely, we relate the growth experiences of countries which had relatively similar economic structures in the late 1970s, with changes occurring in these countries’ structures between 1979 and 2003. The results reveal a robust relationship between structure and (labour) productivity growth, and lend support to the view that producing (though not user) ICT-related industries are strategic branches of economic activity.Structural change, Economic growth, Technical change

Are dictatorships more unequal? : economic growth and wage inequality during Portugal's estado novo, 1944-1974.

This paper relates the changes in the structure of the Portuguese economy to changes in wage inequality, during 1944-1974, when Portugal had its golden age of growth under a dictatorial regime. We present a new wage data set based on surveys conducted by the Portuguese Statistics Office (INE). Our data set covers the whole economy, including 16 sectors, and data on skilled and unskilled labor for manufacturing, and on male and female labor force for agriculture. To measure the evolution of wage inequality we estimate a Theil index. The results reveal an inverted-U curve with a peak in 1959. We proceed by estimating econometrically the relationship between wage inequality and per capita income growth, controlling for the influence of additional variables that capture the effects of industrialization, investment in human and physical capital, emigration, foreign trade and the size of the government. We find a significant relationship between wage inequality, real GDP per capita, human capital and the share of government spending.Wage inequality; Structural change; Portugal;

Are Voters Rationally Ignorant? An Empirical Study for Portuguese Local Elections

The application of the rational choice postulate to a political context invariably leads to the conclusion that most voters are ill informed when making the decision for whom to vote. In this paper, the authors do an empirical evaluation of the rational ignorance theory, based on the results of the 1997 Portuguese Local Elections. The results only partially sustain the hypothesis of rational ignorance, although it is also possible to identify several limitations that prevent the establishment of definite conclusions in this specific field.JEL Classification: H7 Key words: Voter’s Behaviour; Local Elections; Local Governments; Portugal

Are dictatorships more unequal? : economic growth and wage inequality during Portugal's estado novo, 1944-1974

This paper relates the changes in the structure of the Portuguese economy to changes in wage inequality, during 1944-1974, when Portugal had its golden age of growth under a dictatorial regime. We present a new wage data set based on surveys conducted by the Portuguese Statistics Office (INE). Our data set covers the whole economy, including 16 sectors, and data on skilled and unskilled labor for manufacturing, and on male and female labor force for agriculture. To measure the evolution of wage inequality we estimate a Theil index. The results reveal an inverted-U curve with a peak in 1959. We proceed by estimating econometrically the relationship between wage inequality and per capita income growth, controlling for the influence of additional variables that capture the effects of industrialization, investment in human and physical capital, emigration, foreign trade and the size of the government. We find a significant relationship between wage inequality, real GDP per capita, human capital and the share of government spending

Wage inequality in a developing open economy: Portugal, 1944–1984

This paper estimates and analyses wage inequality trends in Portugal, from 1944 to 1984, a period that comprises the Estado Novo dictatorship and the first decade after the transition to democracy. Wage inequality is measured by the gap between skilled and unskilled labour, and reveals a downward trend in most of the period in analysis. We provide an explanation for the observed trends by looking at the influence of domestic and international forces on changes in the relative supply and demand of skilled labour. According to our findings, the skill premium declined due to the combined influence of two major forces: an increase in the relative supply of skilled labour due to the mass emigration of unskilled labour, and the decrease in the relative demand for skills, related to trade-induced changes stemming from the country's increasing openness, which followed the country's unskilled labour comparative advantages. Our findings point to the conclusion that the impact of openness on wage inequality is related to the country's relative level of development among its major trading partners

Export variety, technological content and economic performance: The case of Portugal

Although the analysis of the relationship between international trade and economic growth has an important tradition in the economic literature, the specific focus on a related matter, the link between export variety and economic growth, remains a relatively unexplored field of research. Recently, a few studies have approached this issue, adopting a neo-Schumpeterian framework. In line with this general frame of analysis, in this paper we investigate the impact of export variety on economic growth, cross-relating the variety dimension with technological upgrading.Cointegration econometric results based on the Portuguese experience over the past four decades (1967-2010) show that increased related variety has led to a significant growth bonus, but only in the case of technology advanced sectors. The impact of export variety on economic performance seems, therefore, to be conditioned by the technological intensity ofthe products involved