On the Testing of Seismicity Models

Recently a likelihood-based methodology has been developed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) with a view to testing and ranking seismicity models. We analyze this approach from the standpoint of possible applications to hazard analysis. We arrive at the conclusion that model testing can be made more efficient by focusing on some integral characteristics of the seismicity distribution. This is achieved either in the likelihood framework but with economical and physically reasonable coarsening of the phase space or by choosing a suitable measure of closeness between empirical and model seismicity rate in this space.Comment: To appear at Acta Geophysic

Aperiodicity in one-way Markov cycles and repeat times of large earthquakes in faults

A common use of Markov Chains is the simulation of the seismic cycle in a fault, i.e. as a renewal model for the repetition of its characteristic earthquakes. This representation is consistent with Reid's elastic rebound theory. Here it is proved that in {\it any} one-way Markov cycle, the aperiodicity of the corresponding distribution of cycle lengths is always lower than one. This fact concurs with observations of large earthquakes in faults all over the world

Wavelets techniques for pointwise anti-Holderian irregularity

In this paper, we introduce a notion of weak pointwise Holder regularity, starting from the de nition of the pointwise anti-Holder irregularity. Using this concept, a weak spectrum of singularities can be de ned as for the usual pointwise Holder regularity. We build a class of wavelet series satisfying the multifractal formalism and thus show the optimality of the upper bound. We also show that the weak spectrum of singularities is disconnected from the casual one (denoted here strong spectrum of singularities) by exhibiting a multifractal function made of Davenport series whose weak spectrum di ers from the strong one

Statistical properties of the Burgers equation with Brownian initial velocity

We study the one-dimensional Burgers equation in the inviscid limit for Brownian initial velocity (i.e. the initial velocity is a two-sided Brownian motion that starts from the origin x=0). We obtain the one-point distribution of the velocity field in closed analytical form. In the limit where we are far from the origin, we also obtain the two-point and higher-order distributions. We show how they factorize and recover the statistical invariance through translations for the distributions of velocity increments and Lagrangian increments. We also derive the velocity structure functions and we recover the bifractality of the inverse Lagrangian map. Then, for the case where the initial density is uniform, we obtain the distribution of the density field and its $n$-point correlations. In the same limit, we derive the $n-$point distributions of the Lagrangian displacement field and the properties of shocks. We note that both the stable-clustering ansatz and the Press-Schechter mass function, that are widely used in the cosmological context, happen to be exact for this one-dimensional version of the adhesion model.Comment: 42 pages, published in J. Stat. Phy

Multifractal stationary random measures and multifractal random walks with log-infinitely divisible scaling laws

We define a large class of continuous time multifractal random measures and processes with arbitrary log-infinitely divisible exact or asymptotic scaling law. These processes generalize within a unified framework both the recently defined log-normal Multifractal Random Walk (MRW) [Bacry-Delour-Muzy] and the log-Poisson "product of cynlindrical pulses" [Barral-Mandelbrot]. Our construction is based on some ``continuous stochastic multiplication'' from coarse to fine scales that can be seen as a continuous interpolation of discrete multiplicative cascades. We prove the stochastic convergence of the defined processes and study their main statistical properties. The question of genericity (universality) of limit multifractal processes is addressed within this new framework. We finally provide some methods for numerical simulations and discuss some specific examples.Comment: 24 pages, 4 figure

Shape of Empirical and Synthetic Isoseismals: Comparison for Italian M<=6 Earthquakes

We present results from a comparative analysis of empirical and synthetic shapes for isoseismals of low intensity (I = IV\u2013VI on the MCS scale) for six Italian earthquakes of ML = 4.5\u20136. Our modeling of isoseismals is based on a plane-stratified earth model and on the double\u2013couple point source approximation to calculate seismograms in the frequency range f 1 Hz. With a minimum of parameter variation we demonstrate that the low intensity isoseismals provide information on source geometry. We strive to avoid subjectivity in isoseismal constructions by using the new Diffuse Boundary method, which visualizes isoseismals with their uncertainty. Similar results in this direction are known for large earthquakes (ML 6 or greater) with extended sources and for the higher isoseismals (I VI on the MM scale). The latter studies disregard the earth structure, use a greater number of parameters, and therefore have greater possibilities for fitting the data than our approach

Atlas of isoseismal maps for Italia earthquakes 1400-1997

Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Biblioteca Centrale - P.le Aldo Moro, 7 Rome / CNR - Consiglio Nazionale delle RichercheSIGLEITItal

Statistical analysis of seismicity and hazard estimation for Italy (mixed approach)

Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR). Biblioteca Centrale / CNR - Consiglio Nazionale delle RichercheSIGLEITItal