710 research outputs found
Monetary Policy Rules in the BRICS: How Important is Nonlinearity?
Given limited research on monetary policy rules in emerging markets, this paper estimates monetary policy rules for five key emerging market economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) analysing whether the monetary authority reacts to changes in financial markets, in monetary conditions, in the foreign exchange sector and in the commodity price. To get a deeper understanding of the central bankâs behaviour, we assess the importance of nonlinearity using a smooth transition (STAR) model. Using quarterly data, we find strong evidence that the monetary policy followed by the Central Banks in the BRICS varies from one country to another and that it exhibits nonlinearity. In particular, considerations about economic growth (in the cases of Brazil and Russia), inflation (for India and China) and stability of financial markets (in South Africa) seem to be the major drivers of such nonlinear monetary policy behaviour. Moreover, the findings suggest that the monetary authorities pursue, with the exception of India, a target range for the threshold variable rather than a specific point target. In fact, the exponential smooth transition regression (ESTR) model seems to be the best description of the monetary policy rule in these countries.monetary policy, emerging markets, smooth transition.
Fiscal Policy in the BRICs
This paper assesses the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policy shocks for four key emerging market economies - Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs) â using a Bayesian Structural Vector Auto-Regressive (BSVAR) approach, a Sign-Restrictions Vector Auto-Regressive framework and a Panel Vector Auto-Regressive (PVAR) model. To get a deeper understanding of the governmentâs behaviour, we also estimate fiscal policy rules using a Fully Simultaneous System of Equations and analyze the importance of nonlinearity using a smooth transition (STAR) model. Drawing on quarterly frequency data, we find that government spending shocks have strong Keynesian effects for this group of countries while, in the case of government revenue shocks, a tax hike is harmful for output. This suggests that there is no evidence in favour of âexpansionary fiscal contractionâ in the context of emerging economies where spending policies are largely pro-cyclical. Our findings also show that considerations about growth (in the case of China), exchange rate and inflation (for Brazil and Russia) and commodity prices (in India) drive the nonlinear response of fiscal policy to the dynamics of the economy. All in all, our results are consistent with the idea that fiscal policy can be a powerful stabilization tool and can provide an important short-term economic boost for emerging markets, in particular, in the context of severe downturns as in most recent financial turmoil.fiscal policy, emerging markets, fully simultaneous system of equations, sign-restrictions VAR, smooth transition regression model
Structural breaks and nonlinearity in US and UK public debt
This paper investigates the short-term dynamics for public debts in the US and the UK over more than four decades. We check for structural changes in the data and assess
nonlinearity and switching-regime hypotheses using several linearity tests. Our findings
point to multiple structural breaks due to economic downturns, oil shocks, and financial
and political instability. We also identify different regimes for which the adjustment is
asymmetric and nonlinear, in particular, since 2003 and around the Great Recession.Fundação para a CiĂȘncia e a Tecnologia (FCT
Modelling money demand : further evidence from an international comparison
This paper aims at estimating money demand for the euro area, the US and the UK using a dynamic ordinary least squares estimator (DOLS). Our findings show that: (i) wealth effects on money demand are important in the euro area and the UK; (ii) the impact of changes in the interest rate on real money holdings is negative and small; (iii) goods are a reasonable alternative to money; and (iv) international currency substitution has a major influence on the behaviour of real money demand in the UK.Fundação para a CiĂȘncia e a Tecnologia (FCT
Consumption and wealth in the US, the UK and the Euro Area : a nonlinear investigation
This paper assesses the importance of nonlinearity in estimating the wealth effects on consumption for the US, the UK and the Euro area. We look at the impact of both (i) aggregate wealth and (ii) disaggregate wealth, namely, by comparing financial wealth effects with housing wealth effects. We also assess the magnitude of the response of consumption using both a linear model and two nonlinear approaches (a quantile regression and a smooth transition regression). We find that the elasticity of consumption with respect to aggregate wealth is largest for the UK and housing wealth effects do not seem to be relevant in the Euro area. As for the quantile regression, it shows that the sensitivity of consumption with respect to wealth and income variation is larger when consumption growth is abnormally high, i.e. during periods of economic booms. The smooth transition regression model is able to track reasonably well the consumption patterns during periods of economic downturn, financial instability and housing market corrections. Our approaches uncover a more complex dynamics of the relationship between consumption and wealth than previous results in the literature, whilst being in accordance with the theoretical background underlying the wealth effects on consumption.Fundação para a CiĂȘncia e a Tecnologia (FCT
Monetary policy rules in the BRICS : how important is nonlinearity?
Given limited research on monetary policy rules in emerging markets, this paper
estimates monetary policy rules for five key emerging market economies: Brazil, Russia,
India, China and South Africa (BRICS) analysing whether the monetary authority
reacts to changes in financial markets, in monetary conditions, in the foreign exchange
sector and in the commodity price. To get a deeper understanding of the central bankâs
behaviour, we assess the importance of nonlinearity using a smooth transition (STAR)
model. Using quarterly data, we find strong evidence that the monetary policy followed
by the Central Banks in the BRICS varies from one country to another and that it
exhibits nonlinearity. In particular, considerations about economic growth (in the cases
of Brazil and Russia), inflation (for India and China) and stability of financial markets
(in South Africa) seem to be the major drivers of such nonlinear monetary policy
behaviour. Moreover, the findings suggest that the monetary authorities pursue, with
the exception of India, a target range for the threshold variable rather than a specific
point target. In fact, the exponential smooth transition regression (ESTR) model seems
to be the best description of the monetary policy rule in these countries.Fundação para a CiĂȘncia e a Tecnologia (FCT
Fiscal policy in the BRICs
This paper assesses the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policy shocks for four key
emerging market economies - Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs) â using a Bayesian Structural Vector Auto-Regressive (BSVAR) approach, a Sign-Restrictions Vector Auto-Regressive framework and a Panel Vector Auto-Regressive (PVAR) model. To get a deeper understanding of the governmentâs behaviour, we also estimate fiscal policy rules using a Fully Simultaneous System of Equations and analyze the mportance of nonlinearity using a smooth transition (STAR) model. Drawing on quarterly frequency data, we find that government spending shocks have strong Keynesian effects for this group of countries while, in the case of government revenue shocks, a tax hike is harmful for output. This suggests that there is no evidence in favour of âexpansionary fiscal contractionâ in the context of emerging economies where spending policies are largely pro-cyclical. Our findings also show that considerations about growth (in the case of China), exchange rate and inflation (for Brazil and Russia) and commodity prices (in India) drive the nonlinear response of fiscal policy to the dynamics of the economy. All in all, our results are consistent with the idea that fiscal policy can be a powerful stabilization tool and can provide an important short-term economic boost for emerging markets, in particular, in the context of severe downturns as in most recent financial turmoil.Fundação para a CiĂȘncia e a Tecnologia (FCT
Test beam results for an upgraded forward tagger of the L3 experiment at LEP II
We have tested new scintillator modules with silicon photodiode readout for the upgraded Active Lead Rings (ALR) of the L3 detector at LEP II. Results are presented from data recorded in muon and electron test beams with particular emphasis on the light production and collection as a function of the particle impact position on the scintillator modules. The results from the beam test data will be used for the design of the readout and trigger electronics in conjunction with the required ALR performance as an electron tagger and beam background monitor at LEP II
IntĂ©rĂȘt de la technique de Koyanagi dans le traitement de lâhypospadias posterieurchez lâenfant
No Abstrac
Characterization of cumulus cloud fields using trajectories in the center of gravity versus water mass phase space: 1. Cloud tracking and phase space description
We study the evolution of warm convective cloud fields using large eddy simulations of continental and trade cumulus. Individual clouds are tracked a posteriori from formation to dissipation using a 3âD cloudâtracking algorithm, and results are presented in the phase space of center of gravity altitude versus cloud liquid water mass (CvM space). The CvM space is shown to contain rich information on cloud field characteristics, cloud morphology, and common cloud development pathways, together facilitating a comprehensive understanding of the cloud field. In this part we show how the meteorological (thermodynamic) conditions that determine the cloud properties are projected on the CvM phase space and how changes in the initial conditions affect the clouds\u27 trajectories in this space. This part sets the stage for a detailed microphysical analysis that will be shown in part II
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