Forecast with judgment and models

This paper proposes a simple and model-consistent method for combining forecasts generated by structural micro-founded models and judgmental forecasts. The method also enables the judgmental forecasts to be interpreted through the lens of the model. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a real-time forecasting exercise, using a simple neo-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and prediction from the Survey of Professional Forecastersforecasting, judgment, structural models, Kalman Filter, real time

Can a data-rich environment help identify the sources of model misspecification?

This paper proposes a method for detecting the sources of misspecification in a DSGE model based on testing, in a data-rich environment, the exogeneity of the variables of the DSGE with respect to some auxiliary variables. Finding evidence of non-exogeneity implies misspecification, but finding that some specific variables help predict certain shocks can shed light on the dimensions along which the model is misspecified. Forecast error variance decomposition analysis then helps assess the relevance of the missing channels. The paper puts the proposed methodology to work both in a controlled experiment - by running a Monte Carlo simulations with a known DGP - and using a state-of-the-art model and US data up to 2011

Forecast with judgment and models

This paper proposes a simple and model-consistent method for combining forecasts generated by structural micro-founded models and judgmental forecasts. The method also enables the judgmental forecasts to be interpreted through the lens of the model. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a real-time forecasting exercise, using a simple neo-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and prediction from the Survey of Professional Forecaster

Lighting of University lecture halls:a Design Proposal for Palazzo Malvezzi - Campeggi

Many university lecture halls in Bologna are based inside historic buildings and noble palaces, not designed for students as they are built for a different purpose. The daylight contribution in the rooms is usually not sufficient to satisfy the requirements for school premises; moreover, artificial lighting mainly consists in lamps with high consumption and low performances. Under these conditions the student's visual comfort is not optimal. The following work is based on the open site analysis about the state of art of some university classrooms and their led re-design. The case studies are the lecture halls of Palazzo Malvezzi-Campeggi in Bologna, including the two noble halls on the main floor and the Aula Magna. It has been possible to interact with the acoustic component, not treated here, developing an integrated project able to meet the needs of both parties. The classrooms were qualified through simulations with lighting design software, in accordance with EN 12464, analyzing the daylight factor and the visual comfort parameters

Implementing optimal control in cointegrated I(1) structural VAR models

JEL Classification: C32, C61, E52optimal control, VAR models

Human plasmacytoid dendritic cells and cutaneous melanoma

The prognosis of metastatic melanoma (MM) patients has remained poor for a long time. However, the recent introduction of effective target therapies (BRAF and MEK inhibitors for BRAFV600-mutated MM) and immunotherapies (anti-CTLA-4 and anti-PD-1) has significantly improved the survival of MM patients. Notably, all these responses are highly dependent on the fitness of the host immune system, including the innate compartment. Among immune cells involved in cancer immunity, properly activated plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDCs) exert an important role, bridging the innate and adaptive immune responses and directly eliminating cancer cells. A distinctive feature of pDCs is the production of high amount of type I Interferon (I-IFN), through the Toll-like receptor (TLR) 7 and 9 signaling pathway activation. However, published data indicate that melanoma-associated escape mechanisms are in place to hijack pDC functions. We have recently reported that pDC recruitment is recurrent in the early phases of melanoma, but the entire pDC compartment collapses over melanoma progression. Here, we summarize recent advances on pDC biology and function within the context of melanoma immunity

Monetary policy with ambiguity averse agents

We study a prototypical new-Keynesian model in which agents are averse to ambiguity, and where the ambiguity regards the monetary policy rule. We show that ambiguity has important effects even in steady state, as uncertainty about the policymaker’s response function affects the rest of the model via the consumptionsaving decision. A reduction in ambiguity - e.g. due to credible monetary policy actions and communications - results in a fall in inflation and the policy rate, and an increase in welfare. Moreover while, absent ambiguity, the policymaker’s actual responsiveness to inflation does not matter as long as the Taylor principle is satisfied, in the face of ambiguity the exact degree to which the central bank responds to inflation regains importance. Indeed, a high degree of responsiveness to inflation mitigates the welfare costs of ambiguity. We also present various results regarding the optimal choice of an inflation target, both when ambiguity is given and when assuming the policymaker can affect ambiguity with increased transparency and communication

Ambiguity, monetary policy and trend inflation

Allowing for ambiguity, or Knightian uncertainty, about the behavior of the policymaker helps explain the evolution of trend inflation in the US in a simple new-Keynesian model, without resorting to exogenous changes in the inflation target. Using Blue Chip survey data to gauge the degree of private sector confidence, our model helps reconcile the difference between target inflation and the inflation trend measured in the data. We also show how, in the presence of ambiguity, it is optimal for policymakers to lean against the private sectors pessimistic expectations

Unitarization of the Horocyclic Radon Transform on Homogeneous Trees

Following previous work in the continuous setup, we construct the unitarization of the horocyclic Radon transform on a homogeneous tree X and we show that it intertwines the quasi regular representations of the group of isometries of X on the tree itself and on the space of horocycles.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figure

How to circumvent the limitations of open source software and orthorectify how (or better) than with commercial software

High and very high resolution satellite images are now an irreplaceable resource for earth observation in general and for the extraction of hydrogeological information in particular. In order to use them correctly and compare them with previous surveys and maps, they must be treated geometrically to removethedistortions introduced by the acquisition process. Orthorectification is not a simple georeferencing because the process must take into account the three-dimensional acquisition geometry of the sensor. For this reason orthorectification must be performed within specific commercial software with additional costs compared to image acquisition which, in some cases, is currently free of charge. Some orthorectification algorithms, mainly based on the RPC approach, are available in open source GIS software such as QGIS. OTB (Orpheus toolbox) for QGIS contains some of these algorithms but its interfaces are not clear and there are some incomprehensible limitations such as the impossibility to input three-dimensional ground control points (GCPs). This severely limits the final achievable accuracy because it does not allow to correctly estimate the influence of different ground morphologies on the acquisition geometry. To get around these limitations you can make a "pseudo DEM" and other expedients to complete the whole process obtaining absolute results comparable if not better than those of commercial software. The proposed procedure may not be the fastest but it can be a valid alternative for those who use satellite images as a tool in their research work