The effect of tax-based savings incentives on government revenue

There is an unresolved debate on the effect of tax-based savings incentives on government revenue. The conventional wisdom on tax-assisted saving plans (TASPs) holds that they reduce public savings, but may raise national savings by stimulating private savings. Feldstein (1995) has challenged the view that TASPs reduce government revenue. According to Feldstein, ‘some of the increase in personal saving raises the corporate capital stock, and the return on this additional capital raises corporate tax payments’. When the additional corporate income tax revenue is taken into account, ‘the revenue loss associated with IRAs [Individual Retirement Accounts] either is much smaller than has generally been estimated or is actually a revenue gain’. This paper extends Feldstein’s analysis to incorporate international considerations,differences in tax structures and alternative values for key parameters. We show that the result presented by Feldstein represents a special case that does not lead to broad generalisations. We also show that, under most conditions, the tenets of conventional wisdom that TASPs reduce government revenue are likely to hold, but that the magnitude of the effect may not be large. Finally, we suggest that the focus of research on the savings effects of TASPs is justifiable in a closed economy, where domestic savings affect domestic investment, but is not useful for policy development in small open economies.

Choosing the Field of Study in Post-Secondary Education: Do Expected Earnings Matter?

This paper examines the determinants of the choice of the major when the length of studies is uncertain, by using a framework in which students entering post-secondary education are assumed to anticipate their future earnings. For that purpose, we use French data coming from the 1992 and 1998 Génération surveys collected by the Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur l'Emploi et les Qualifications (CEREQ, Marseille). Our econometric approach is based on a semi-structural three-equations model, which is identified thanks to some exclusion restrictions. We exploit in particular exogenous variations in the earnings returns associated with the majors across the business cycle, in order to identify the causal effect of expected earnings on the probability of choosing a given major. Relying on a three-component mixture distribution, we account for correlation between the unobserved individual-specific terms affecting the preferences for the majors, the unobserved individual-specific factors entering the equation determining the length of studies within each major, and that affecting the labor market earnings equation. Following Arcidiacono and Jones (2003), we use the EM algorithm with a sequential maximization step to produce consistent parameter estimates. Simulating for each given major a 10 percent increase in the expected earnings suggests that expected earnings have a statistically significant but quantitatively small impact on the allocation of students across majors.post-secondary education, major choice, returns to education, EM algorithm

Inter-temporal and Inter-Industry Effects of Population Ageing: A General Equilibrium Assessment for Canada

The objective of this paper is to examine the inter-industry and labour market occupational effects of population ageing in Canada, using a computable general equilibrium overlapping-generations model. The model is calibrated along a balanced-growth path, taking into account labour-augmenting (Harrod-neutral) technical progress. It also accounts for heterogeneity at the household level, using 25 occupation-specific earnings profiles. In addition to the impact of slower labour force growth, the model captures the shift in sectoral composition of final demand. The latter is due to different consumption preferences of older individuals. Moreover, a wage curve is introduced to explore the impact of population ageing on the unemployment rate. The simulation results indicate that the growth in real GDP per capita could decline by nearly one percentage point between 2006 and 2050. Besides, the production of services, in percent of total GDP, is projected to increase in the long-run, although the analysis shows more modest changes in production shares than in previous studies. The results also suggest that the equilibrium unemployment rate is likely to decline by more than 2 percentage points in the long run. The impact also varies quite significantly at the occupational level.Population ageing, growth, general equilibrium model, overlapping generations, Canada

Estimating the Effect of a Retraining Program on the Re-Employment Rate of Displaced Workers

In this paper we estimate by matching techniques the effects of a French retraining program on the reemployment rate of displaced workers. This program, called "Conventions de conversion", was intended to improve reemployment prospects of displaced workers by proposing them retraining and job seeking assistance for a period of six months beginning just after the dismissal. Our empirical analysis is based upon non-experimental data collected by the French Ministry of Labour. Matching estimates show that this program succeeded in increasing the employment rate of trainees by approximately 6 points of percentage in the medium-term, namely in the second and third years after the date of entry into the program. This improvement is essentially due to an increase of their reemployment rate in regular jobs, namely jobs under long-term labour contracts.evaluation, retraining program, displaced workers, matching estimates

The Effect of Part-Time Work on Post-Secondary Educational Attainment: New Evidence from French Data

In this paper, we provide new evidence on the effect of part-time work on postsecondary educational attainment. To do so, we use samples extracted from the French Labor Force Surveys conducted over the years 1992-2002. These samples are restricted to students in initial education following university studies and preparing an Associate, a Bachelor or a Master degree. We estimate probit models with two simultaneous equations accounting for part-time working while studying and for success on the final exam, along with the decision to continue the following year in one of the models. We take the working time into account by drawing in one of the models a distinction between jobs in which more or less than 16 hours are worked per week. We use variations across departements in low-skilled youth unemployment rates and in their interactions with the father's socio-economic status in order to identify the effect of part-time work on educational attainment. Our results suggest a statistically significant and very large detrimental effect of holding a regular part-time job on graduation probability. Still, a complementary analysis shows that working while studying does not have any significant effect on the probability of continuing studies.post-secondary educational attainment, students' labor supply, bivariate Probit models

Wage rigidity, collective bargaining and the minimum wage: evidence from French agreement data.

We highlight different stylized facts concerning wage stickiness. First, in France, the typical duration of a wage agreement is one year. Consequently, a Taylor (1980) -type model appears to reproduce appropriately the distribution of agreement durations. Some 30 percent of settlements stipulate several predetermined wage changes during the year following the date of signature of the agreement. The frequency of wage agreements is highly seasonal, but the dates at which agreements take effect are more staggered. The date at which the national minimum wage level is revised each year has a significant impact on the timetable of wage agreements, both at the firm- and at the industry-levels. Wage increases negotiated at these two levels mainly depend on the inflation regime, the firm profitability and the proportion of minimum-wage workers in the same industry.Wage Stickiness, Wage Bargaining, Minimum Wage, Downward nominal Wage Rigidity.

Restaurant Prices and the Minimum Wage

We examine the effect of the minimum wage on restaurant prices. We contribute to both the study of economic impact of the minimum wage and to the micro patterns of price stickiness. For that purpose, we use a unique dataset of individual price quotes collected to calculate the Consumer Price Index in France and we estimate a price rigidity model based on a flexible (S; s) rule. We find a positive and significant impact of the minimum wage on prices. The effect of the minimum wage on prices is however very protracted. The aggregate impact estimated with our model takes more than a year to fully pass through to retail prices.price stickiness, minimum wage, inflation, restaurant prices