Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

This study explores how researchers’ analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers’ expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team’s workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers’ results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings

Late Holocene primary productivity and sea surface temperature variations in the northeastern Arabian Sea : Implications for winter monsoon variability

Variability in the oceanic environment of the Arabian Sea region is strongly influenced by the seasonal monsoon cycle of alternating wind directions. Prominent and well studied is the summer monsoon, but much less is known about late Holocene changes in winter monsoon strength with winds from the northeast that drive convective mixing and high surface ocean productivity in the northeastern Arabian Sea. To establish a high-resolution record of winter monsoon variability for the late Holocene, we analyzed alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) variations and proxies of primary productivity (organic carbon and δ15N) in a well-laminated sediment core from the Pakistan continental margin. Weak winter monsoon intensities off Pakistan are indicated from 400 B.C. to 250 A.D. by reduced productivity and relatively high SST. At about 250 A.D., the intensity of the winter monsoon increased off Pakistan as indicated by a trend to lower SST. We infer that monsoon conditions were relatively unstable from ~500 to 1300 A.D., because primary production and SST were highly variable. Declining SST and elevated biological production from 1400 to 1900 A.D. suggest invigorated convective winter mixing by strengthening winter monsoon circulation, most likely a regional expression of colder climate conditions during the Little Ice Age on the Northern Hemisphere. The comparison of winter monsoon intensity with records of summer monsoon intensity suggests that an inverse relationship between summer and winter monsoon strength exists in the Asian monsoon system during the late Holocene, effected by shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone

Low Power High Bandwidth Acceleration Sensor For Industrial Applications

This paper reports on the improved micromechanical structures and improved integrated electronics to create high bandwidth acceleration sensors with a high signal to noise ratio and very low power electronics. This ambitious aim can be achieved by a very close co-design of MEMS and ASIC. Our two axis micromechanical element is optimized with respect to its seismic mass, which is needed to have an ultra-low noise sensor. Therefore, a large height of the micro mechanical structure is preferred. Another aim is a very high capacitive sensitivity while keeping the base capacitance as small as possible to aim for a small power consumption. Hence, a high aspect ratio technology is essential