The One-Loop Matter Bispectrum in the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structures

Given the importance of future large scale structure surveys for delivering new cosmological information, it is crucial to reliably predict their observables. The Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structures (EFTofLSS) provides a manifestly convergent perturbative scheme to compute the clustering of dark matter in the weakly nonlinear regime in an expansion in $k/k_{\rm NL}$, where $k$ is the wavenumber of interest and $k_{\rm NL}$ is the wavenumber associated to the nonlinear scale. It has been recently shown that the EFTofLSS matches to $1\%$ level the dark matter power spectrum at redshift zero up to $k\simeq 0.3 h\,$Mpc$^{-1}$ and $k\simeq 0.6 h\,$Mpc$^{-1}$ at one and two loops respectively, using only one counterterm that is fit to data. Similar results have been obtained for the momentum power spectrum at one loop. This is a remarkable improvement with respect to former analytical techniques. Here we study the prediction for the equal-time dark matter bispectrum at one loop. We find that at this order it is sufficient to consider the same counterterm that was measured in the power spectrum. Without any remaining free parameter, and in a cosmology for which $k_{\rm NL}$ is smaller than in the previously considered cases ($\sigma_8=0.9$), we find that the prediction from the EFTofLSS agrees very well with $N$-body simulations up to $k\simeq 0.25 h\,$Mpc$^{-1}$, given the accuracy of the measurements, which is of order a few percent at the highest $k$'s of interest. While the fit is very good on average up to $k\simeq 0.25 h\,$Mpc$^{-1}$, the fit performs slightly worse on equilateral configurations, in agreement with expectations that for a given maximum $k$, equilateral triangles are the most nonlinear.Comment: 39 pages, 12 figures; v2: JCAP published version, improved numerical data, added explanation and clarification

Lensing reconstruction from line intensity maps: the impact of gravitational nonlinearity

We investigate the detection prospects for gravitational lensing of three-dimensional maps from upcoming line intensity surveys, focusing in particular on the impact of gravitational nonlinearities on standard quadratic lensing estimators. Using perturbation theory, we show that these nonlinearities can provide a significant contaminant to lensing reconstruction, even for observations at reionization-era redshifts. However, we show how this contamination can be mitigated with the use of a "bias-hardened" estimator. Along the way, we present an estimator for reconstructing long-wavelength density modes, in the spirit of the "tidal reconstruction" technique that has been proposed elsewhere, and discuss the dominant biases on this estimator. After applying bias-hardening, we find that a detection of the lensing potential power spectrum will still be challenging for the first phase of SKA-Low, CHIME, and HIRAX, with gravitational nonlinearities decreasing the signal to noise by a factor of a few compared to forecasts that ignore these effects. On the other hand, cross-correlations between lensing and galaxy clustering or cosmic shear from a large photometric survey look promising, provided that systematics can be sufficiently controlled. We reach similar conclusions for a single-dish survey inspired by CII measurements planned for CCAT-prime, suggesting that lensing is an interesting science target not just for 21cm surveys, but also for intensity maps of other lines.Comment: 40+18 pages, 13 figures, 5 tables. v2: JCAP published version, with typos fixed and clarifications adde

What do gas-rich galaxies actually tell us about modified Newtonian dynamics?

It has recently been claimed that measurements of the baryonic Tully-Fisher relation (BTFR), a power-law relationship between the observed baryonic masses and outer rotation velocities of galaxies, support the predictions of modified Newtonian dynamics for the slope and scatter in the relation, while challenging the cold dark matter (CDM) paradigm. We investigate these claims, and find that: 1) the scatter in the data used to determine the BTFR is in conflict with observational uncertainties on the data; 2) these data do not make strong distinctions regarding the best-fit BTFR parameters; 3) the literature contains a wide variety of measurements of the BTFR, many of which are discrepant with the recent results; and 4) the claimed CDM "prediction" for the BTFR is a gross oversimplification of the complex galaxy-scale physics involved. We conclude that the BTFR is currently untrustworthy as a test of CDM.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures; minor revisions to match published versio

Gratuitous violence and the rational offender model

Rational offender models assume that individuals choose whether to offend by weighing the rewards against the chances of apprehension and the penalty if caught. While evidence indicates that rational theory is applicable to acquisitive crimes, the explanatory power for gratuitous non-fatal violent offending has not been evaluated. Lottery-type questions elicited risk attitudes and time preferences from respondents in a street survey. Admitted violent behaviour was predictable on the basis of some of these responses. Consistent with the rational model, less risk averse and more impatient individuals were more liable to violence. Such people were also more likely to be victims of violence. In line with a ‘subjective’ version of the rational model, respondents with lower estimates of average violence conviction chances and of fines were more prone to be violent

Removing systematic errors for exoplanet search via latent causes

We describe a method for removing the effect of confounders in order to reconstruct a latent quantity of interest. The method, referred to as half-sibling regression, is inspired by recent work in causal inference using additive noise models. We provide a theoretical justification and illustrate the potential of the method in a challenging astronomy application.Comment: Extended version of a paper appearing in the Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference on Machine Learning, Lille, France, 201

Baryonic effects on the matter bispectrum

The large-scale clustering of matter is impacted by baryonic physics, particularly AGN feedback. Modelling or mitigating this impact will be essential for making full use of upcoming measurements of cosmic shear and other large-scale structure probes. We study baryonic effects on the matter bispectrum, using measurements from a selection of state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulations: IllustrisTNG, Illustris, EAGLE, and BAHAMAS. We identify a low-redshift enhancement of the bispectrum, peaking at $k\sim 3h\,{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, that is present in several simulations, and discuss how it can be associated to the evolving nature of AGN feedback at late times. This enhancement does not appear in the matter power spectrum, and therefore represents a new source of degeneracy breaking between two- and three-point statistics. In addition, we provide physical interpretations for other aspects of these measurements, and make initial comparisons to predictions from perturbation theory, empirical fitting formulas, and the response function formalism. We publicly release our measurements (including estimates of their uncertainty due to sample variance) and bispectrum measurement code as resources for the community.Comment: 29 pages, 24 figures. v2: MNRAS published version, with references and clarifications added (conclusions unchanged). See Fig. 13 for a summary of the main results. Simulation measurements are available at https://github.com/sjforeman/hydro_bispectrum , and bispectrum measurement code is available at https://github.com/sjforeman/bski