Correlated Binomial Models and Correlation Structures

We discuss a general method to construct correlated binomial distributions by imposing several consistent relations on the joint probability function. We obtain self-consistency relations for the conditional correlations and conditional probabilities. The beta-binomial distribution is derived by a strong symmetric assumption on the conditional correlations. Our derivation clarifies the 'correlation' structure of the beta-binomial distribution. It is also possible to study the correlation structures of other probability distributions of exchangeable (homogeneous) correlated Bernoulli random variables. We study some distribution functions and discuss their behaviors in terms of their correlation structures.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figure

Don't know, can't know: Embracing deeper uncertainties when analysing risks

This article is available open access through the publisher’s website at the link below. Copyright @ 2011 The Royal Society.Numerous types of uncertainty arise when using formal models in the analysis of risks. Uncertainty is best seen as a relation, allowing a clear separation of the object, source and ‘owner’ of the uncertainty, and we argue that all expressions of uncertainty are constructed from judgements based on possibly inadequate assumptions, and are therefore contingent. We consider a five-level structure for assessing and communicating uncertainties, distinguishing three within-model levels—event, parameter and model uncertainty—and two extra-model levels concerning acknowledged and unknown inadequacies in the modelling process, including possible disagreements about the framing of the problem. We consider the forms of expression of uncertainty within the five levels, providing numerous examples of the way in which inadequacies in understanding are handled, and examining criticisms of the attempts taken by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to separate the likelihood of events from the confidence in the science. Expressing our confidence in the adequacy of the modelling process requires an assessment of the quality of the underlying evidence, and we draw on a scale that is widely used within evidence-based medicine. We conclude that the contingent nature of risk-modelling needs to be explicitly acknowledged in advice given to policy-makers, and that unconditional expressions of uncertainty remain an aspiration

Optimization of organotypic cultures of mouse spleen for staining and functional assays

By preserving cell viability and three-dimensional localization, organotypic culture stands out among the newest frontiers of cell culture. It has been successfully employed for the study of diseases among which neoplasias, where tumoral cells take advantage of the surrounding stroma to promote their own proliferation and survival. Organotypic culture acquires major importance in the context of the immune system, whose cells cross-talk in a complex and dynamic fashion to elicit productive responses. However, organotypic culture has been as yet poorly developed for and applied to primary and secondary lymphoid organs. Here we describe in detail the development of a protocol suitable for the efficient cutting of mouse spleen, which overcomes technical difficulties related to the peculiar organ texture, and for optimized organotypic culture of spleen slices. Moreover, we used microscopy, immunofluorescence, flow cytometry and qRT-PCR to demonstrate that the majority of cells residing in spleen slices remain alive and maintain their original location in the organ architecture for several days after cutting. The development of this protocol represents a significant technical improvement in the study of the lymphoid microenvironment in both physiological and pathological conditions involving the immune system

The small GTPase Rab29 is a common regulator of immune synapse assembly and ciliogenesis

Acknowledgements We wish to thank Jorge Galán, Gregory Pazour, Derek Toomre, Giuliano Callaini, Joel Rosenbaum, Alessandra Boletta and Francesco Blasi for generously providing reagents and for productive discussions, and Sonia Grassini for technical assistance. The work was carried out with the financial support of Telethon (GGP11021) and AIRC.Peer reviewedPostprin

On quantum estimation, quantum cloning and finite quantum de Finetti theorems

This paper presents a series of results on the interplay between quantum estimation, cloning and finite de Finetti theorems. First, we consider the measure-and-prepare channel that uses optimal estimation to convert M copies into k approximate copies of an unknown pure state and we show that this channel is equal to a random loss of all but s particles followed by cloning from s to k copies. When the number k of output copies is large with respect to the number M of input copies the measure-and-prepare channel converges in diamond norm to the optimal universal cloning. In the opposite case, when M is large compared to k, the estimation becomes almost perfect and the measure-and-prepare channel converges in diamond norm to the partial trace over all but k systems. This result is then used to derive de Finetti-type results for quantum states and for symmetric broadcast channels, that is, channels that distribute quantum information to many receivers in a permutationally invariant fashion. Applications of the finite de Finetti theorem for symmetric broadcast channels include the derivation of diamond-norm bounds on the asymptotic convergence of quantum cloning to state estimation and the derivation of bounds on the amount of quantum information that can be jointly decoded by a group of k receivers at the output of a symmetric broadcast channel.Comment: 19 pages, no figures, a new result added, published version to appear in Proceedings of TQC 201

GCR flux 9-day variations with LISA Pathfinder

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Infectious Default Model with Recovery and Continuous Limit

We introduce an infectious default and recovery model for N obligors. Obligors are assumed to be exchangeable and their states are described by N Bernoulli random variables S_{i} (i=1,...,N). They are expressed by multiplying independent Bernoulli variables X_{i},Y_{ij},Y'_{ij}, and default and recovery infections are described by Y_{ij} and Y'_{ij}. We obtain the default probability function P(k) for k defaults. Taking its continuous limit, we find two nontrivial probability distributions with the reflection symmetry of S_{i} \leftrightarrow 1-S_{i}. Their profiles are singular and oscillating and we understand it theoretically. We also compare P(k) with an implied default distribution function inferred from the quotes of iTraxx-CJ. In order to explain the behavior of the implied distribution, the recovery effect may be necessary.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figure

Collective Autoionization in Multiply-Excited Systems: A novel ionization process observed in Helium Nanodroplets

Free electron lasers (FELs) offer the unprecedented capability to study reaction dynamics and image the structure of complex systems. When multiple photons are absorbed in complex systems, a plasma-like state is formed where many atoms are ionized on a femtosecond timescale. If multiphoton absorption is resonantly-enhanced, the system becomes electronically-excited prior to plasma formation, with subsequent decay paths which have been scarcely investigated to date. Here, we show using helium nanodroplets as an example that these systems can decay by a new type of process, named collective autoionization. In addition, we show that this process is surprisingly efficient, leading to ion abundances much greater than that of direct single-photon ionization. This novel collective ionization process is expected to be important in many other complex systems, e.g. macromolecules and nanoparticles, exposed to high intensity radiation fields