Propensities and Second Order Uncertainty: A Modified Taxi Cab Problem

The study of people’s ability to engage in causal probabilistic reasoning has typically used fixed-point estimates for key figures. For example, in the classic taxi-cab problem, where a witness provides evidence on which of two cab companies (the more common ‘green’/less common ‘blue’) were responsible for a hit and run incident, solvers are told the witness’s ability to judge cab color is 80%. In reality, there is likely to be some uncertainty around this estimate (perhaps we tested the witness and they were correct 4/5 times), known as second-order uncertainty, producing a distribution rather than a fixed probability. While generally more closely matching real world reasoning, a further important ramification of this is that our best estimate of the witness’ accuracy can and should change when the witness makes the claim that the cab was blue. We present a Bayesian Network model of this problem, and show that, while the witness’s report does increase our probability of the cab being blue, it simultaneously decreases our estimate of their future accuracy (because blue cabs are less common). We presented this version of the problem to 131 participants, requiring them to update their estimates of both the probability the cab involved was blue, as well as the witness’s accuracy, after they claim it was blue. We also required participants to explain their reasoning process and provided follow up questions to probe various aspects of their reasoning. While some participants responded normatively, the majority self-reported ‘assuming’ one of the probabilities was a certainty. Around a quarter assumed the cab was green, and thus the witness was wrong, decreasing their estimate of their accuracy. Another quarter assumed the witness was correct and actually increased their estimate of their accuracy, showing a circular logic similar to that seen in the confirmation bias/belief polarization literature. Around half of participants refused to make any change, with convergent evidence suggesting that these participants do not see the relevance of the witness’s report to their accuracy before we know for certain whether they are correct or incorrect

Categorical Updating in a Bayesian Propensity Problem

We present three experiments using a novel problem in which participants update their estimates of propensities when faced with an uncertain new instance. We examine this using two different causal structures (common cause/common effect) and two different scenarios (agent-based/mechanical). In the first, participants must update their estimate of the propensity for two warring nations to successfully explode missiles after being told of a new explosion on the border between both nations. In the second, participants must update their estimate of the accuracy of two early warning tests for cancer when they produce conflicting reports about a patient. Across both experiments, we find two modal responses, representing around one-third of participants each. In the first, "Categorical" response, participants update propensity estimates as if they were certain about the single event, for example, certain that one of the nations was responsible for the latest explosion, or certain about which of the two tests is correct. In the second, "No change" response, participants make no update to their propensity estimates at all. Across the three experiments, the theory is developed and tested that these two responses in fact have a single representation of the problem: because the actual outcome is binary (only one of the nations could have launched the missile; the patient either has cancer or not), these participants believe it is incorrect to update propensities in a graded manner. They therefore operate on a "certainty threshold" basis, whereby, if they are certain enough about the single event, they will make the "Categorical" response, and if they are below this threshold, they will make the "No change" response. Ramifications are considered for the "categorical" response in particular, as this approach produces a positive-feedback dynamic similar to that seen in the belief polarization/confirmation bias literature

Spatiotemporal epidemiology of rabies at an interface between domestic dogs and wildlife in South Africa

We characterized the spatiotemporal epidemiology of rabies from January 2009 through March 2014 across the interface between a wildlife reserve and communal livestock farming area in South Africa. Brain tissue from 344 animals of 28 different species were tested for lyssavirus antigen. Of these, 146 (42.4%) samples tested positive, of which 141 (96.6%) came from dogs. Brain samples of dogs were more likely to test positive for lyssavirus antigen if they were found and destroyed in the reserve, compared to samples originating from dogs outside the reserve (65.3% vs. 45.5%; odds ratio (OR) = 2.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.27–4.03), despite rabies surveillance outside the reserve being targeted to dogs that have a higher index of suspicion due to clinical or epidemiological evidence of infection. In the reserve, dogs were more likely to test positive for rabies if they were shot further from villages (OR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.18–1.71) and closer to water points (OR = 0.41, 95% CI 0.21–0.81). Our results provide a basis for refinement of existing surveillance and control programs to mitigate the threat of spillover of rabies to wildlife populations.http://www.nature.com/srepam2019Veterinary Tropical Disease

Distinct Mechanisms for Induction and Tolerance Regulate the Immediate Early Genes Encoding Interleukin 1β and Tumor Necrosis Factor α

Interleukin-1β and Tumor Necrosis Factor α play related, but distinct, roles in immunity and disease. Our study revealed major mechanistic distinctions in the Toll-like receptor (TLR) signaling-dependent induction for the rapidly expressed genes (IL1B and TNF) coding for these two cytokines. Prior to induction, TNF exhibited pre-bound TATA Binding Protein (TBP) and paused RNA Polymerase II (Pol II), hallmarks of poised immediate-early (IE) genes. In contrast, unstimulated IL1B displayed very low levels of both TBP and paused Pol II, requiring the lineage-specific Spi-1/PU.1 (Spi1) transcription factor as an anchor for induction-dependent interaction with two TLR-activated transcription factors, C/EBPβ and NF-κB. Activation and DNA binding of these two pre-expressed factors resulted in de novo recruitment of TBP and Pol II to IL1B in concert with a permissive state for elongation mediated by the recruitment of elongation factor P-TEFb. This Spi1-dependent mechanism for IL1B transcription, which is unique for a rapidly-induced/poised IE gene, was more dependent upon P-TEFb than was the case for the TNF gene. Furthermore, the dependence on phosphoinositide 3-kinase for P-TEFb recruitment to IL1B paralleled a greater sensitivity to the metabolic state of the cell and a lower sensitivity to the phenomenon of endotoxin tolerance than was evident for TNF. Such differences in induction mechanisms argue against the prevailing paradigm that all IE genes possess paused Pol II and may further delineate the specific roles played by each of these rapidly expressed immune modulators. © 2013 Adamik et al

Neonatal anthropometry: a tool to evaluate the nutritional status and predict early and late risks

Neonatal anthropometry is an inexpensive, noninvasive and convenient tool for bedside evaluation, especially in sick and fragile neonates. Anthropometry can be used in neonates as a tool for several purposes: diagnosis of foetal malnutrition and prediction of early postnatal complications; postnatal assessment of growth, body composition and nutritional status; prediction of long-term complications including metabolic syndrome; assessment of dysmorphology; and estimation of body surface. However, in this age group anthropometry has been notorious for its inaccuracy and the main concern is to make validated indices available. Direct measurements, such as body weight, length and body circumferences are the most commonly used measurements for nutritional assessment in clinical practice and in field studies. Body weight is the most reliable anthropometric measurement and therefore is often used alone in the assessment of the nutritional status, despite not reflecting body composition. Derived indices from direct measurements have been proposed to improve the accuracy of anthropometry. Equations based on body weight and length, mid-arm circumference/head circumference ratio, and upper-arm cross-sectional areas are among the most used derived indices to assess nutritional status and body proportionality, even though these indices require further validation for the estimation of body composition in neonates

Reproductive factors and oesophageal cancer in Chinese women: a case-control study

<p/> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous studies showed that sex hormone might play a role in the development of oesophageal cancer in Western countries. However, evidence from Chinese populations is still lacking.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a hospital-based case-control study in Guangzhou, China. From June 2006 to May 2009, face-to-face interviews were conducted on 73 cases and 157 controls. Cases were Chinese females with newly diagnosed primary oesophageal cancer. Controls were hospitalized individuals without cancer and frequency matched by age groups. The interviews included questions about childbearing and menarche history, together with potential confounders. Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate the risk of factors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Women who had given birth before were not at increased risk compared to childless women (adjusted OR = 1.17, 95% CI: 0.48 ~ 2.85). The risk of oesophageal cancer increased with age at first birth: the adjusted OR for women first giving birth at age 25 or later was 2.02 (95% CI: 1.01 ~ 4.04) compared with those reporting their first birth before age 22. History of spontaneous abortion was not significantly associated with increased risk (adjusted OR = 1.37, 95% CI: 0.49 ~ 3.83). No significant association was observed between menstrual variables (age at menarche, age at menopause, and years of menstruation) and risk of oesophageal cancer.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Giving birth at later age may increase the risk of oesophageal cancer in women. Further studies in Chinese populations with larger sample sizes are still needed.</p

The Red Sea, Coastal Landscapes, and Hominin Dispersals

This chapter provides a critical assessment of environment, landscape and resources in the Red Sea region over the past five million years in relation to archaeological evidence of hominin settlement, and of current hypotheses about the role of the region as a pathway or obstacle to population dispersals between Africa and Asia and the possible significance of coastal colonization. The discussion assesses the impact of factors such as topography and the distribution of resources on land and on the seacoast, taking account of geographical variation and changes in geology, sea levels and palaeoclimate. The merits of northern and southern routes of movement at either end of the Red Sea are compared. All the evidence indicates that there has been no land connection at the southern end since the beginning of the Pliocene period, but that short sea crossings would have been possible at lowest sea-level stands with little or no technical aids. More important than the possibilities of crossing the southern channel is the nature of the resources available in the adjacent coastal zones. There were many climatic episodes wetter than today, and during these periods water draining from the Arabian escarpment provided productive conditions for large mammals and human populations in coastal regions and eastwards into the desert. During drier episodes the coastal region would have provided important refugia both in upland areas and on the emerged shelves exposed by lowered sea level, especially in the southern sector and on both sides of the Red Sea. Marine resources may have offered an added advantage in coastal areas, but evidence for their exploitation is very limited, and their role has been over-exaggerated in hypotheses of coastal colonization

Serosorting Is Associated with a Decreased Risk of HIV Seroconversion in the EXPLORE Study Cohort

Background: Seroadaptation strategies such as serosorting and seropositioning originated within communities of men who have sex with men (MSM), but there are limited data about their effectiveness in preventing HIV transmission when utilized by HIV-negative men. Methodology/Principal Findings: Data from the EXPLORE cohort of HIV-negative MSM who reported both seroconcordant and serodiscordant partners were used to evaluate serosorting and seropositioning. The association of serosorting and seropositioning with HIV seroconversion was evaluated in this cohort of high risk MSM from six U.S. cities. Serosorting was independently associated with a small decrease in risk of HIV seroconversion (OR = 0.88; 95%CI, 0.81–0.95), even among participants reporting $10 partners. Those who more consistently practiced serosorting were more likely to be white (p = 0.01), have completed college (p =,0.0002) and to have had 10 or more partners in the six months before the baseline visit (p = 0.01) but did not differ in age, reporting HIV-infected partners, or drug use. There was no evidence of a seroconversion effect with seropositioning (OR 1.02, 95%CI, 0.92–1.14). Significance: In high risk HIV uninfected MSM who report unprotected anal intercourse with both seroconcordant and serodiscordant partners, serosorting was associated with a modest decreased risk of HIV infection. To maximize any potential benefit, it will be important to increase accurate knowledge of HIV status, through increased testing frequency