Towards a Joint Characterization of Monetary Policy and the Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

The paper develops an empirical no-arbitrage Gaussian affine term structure model to explain the dynamics of the German term structure of interest rates from 1979 through 1998. In contrast to most affine term structure models two risk factors that drive the dynamics are linked to observable macroeconomics factors: output and inflation. The results obtained by a Kalman-filter-based maximum likelihood procedure indicate that the dynamics of the German term structure of interest rates can be sufficiently explained by expected variations in those macroeconomic factors plus an additional unobservable factor. Furthermore, we are able to extract a monetary policy reaction function within this no-arbitrage model of the term structure that closely resembles the empirical reaction functions that are based on the dynamics of the short rate only. --affine term structure models,monetary policy rules,Kalman filter

Deutschlands Abschneiden im 'Global Competitiveness Report 2002 - 2003'

Die weltweiten ökonomischen Verflechtungen werden intensiver, daher nimmt auch die Bedeutung der internationalen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit weiter zu. Wie ist Deutschland im internationalen Vergleich positioniert? In welchen Bereichen schneidet Deutschland gut ab und wo besteht wirtschaftspolitischer Handlungsbedarf? --

Wozu Studien zur Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von Volkswirtschaften?

Die Frage nach der Beurteilung der internationalen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von Volkswirtschaften findet in der öffentlichen Diskussion immer mehr Beachtung. Zugleich stoßen solche Rankinguntersuchungen unter Ökonomen immer wieder auf Kritik. Welche Konzepte zur Messung der internationalen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit gibt es und was wird gemessen? --

Das Pro und Kontra der Einfühung inflationsindexierter Staatsanleihen

In den vergangenen Jahren haben sich einige führende Industrieländer für die Einführung inflationsindexierter Staatsanleihen entschieden. Gegenwärtig prüft auch das Bundesfinanzministerium die Einführung inflationsindexierter Staatsanleihen. Was spricht für und was spricht gegen solch ein Finanzierungsinstrument des Staates in Deutschland? --

The Shape of Eurozone’s Uncertainty: Its Impact and Predictive Value on GDP

This paper examines the role of uncertainty in the context of the business cycle in the euro area. To gain a more granular perspective on uncertainty, the paper decomposes uncertainty along two dimensions: First, we construct the four different moments of uncertainty, including the point estimate, the standard deviation, the skewness and the kurtosis. The second dimension of uncertainty spans along three distinct groups of economic agents, including consumers, corporates and financial markets. Based on this taxonomy, we construct uncertainty indices and assess the impact on real GDP via impulse response functions and further investigate their informational value in rolling out-of-sample GDP forecasts. The analysis lends evidence to the hypothesis that higher uncertainty expressed through the point estimate, a larger standard deviation among confidence estimates, positive skewness and a higher kurtosis are all negatively correlated with the business cycle. The impulse response functions reveal that in particular the first and the second moment of uncertainty cause a permanent effect on GDP with an initial decline and a subsequent overshoot. We find uncertainty in the corporate sector to be the main driver behind this observation, followed by financial markets’ uncertainty whose initial effect on GDP is comparable but receding much faster. While the first two moments of uncertainty improve GDP forecasts significantly, both the skewness and the kurtosis do not augment the forecast quality any further

The Slope of the Euro Area Phillips Curve: Always and Everywhere the Same?

To determine whether the sensitivity of inflation to changes in the business cycle varies over time, hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curves are formulated in state space form and estimated via the Kalman filter. Analyses cover the Euro Area aggregate and eleven Euro Area countries. Results confirm the increasingly important role of inflation expectations. While the Phillips curve flattens until 2007, slope coefficients increase considerably with the financial crisis in 2007/08 on the basis of output gaps. Nonetheless, stable or decreasing slope coefficients are observed on the basis of unemployment gaps, indicating strong dependence on the driving variable used in estimations. Overall, differences in cross-country Phillips curve parameters are decreasing, indicating a convergence of Euro Area countries' inflation dynamics since 1990

Common virulence gene expression in adult first-time infected malaria patients and severe cases

Sequestration of Plasmodium falciparum(P. falciparum)-infected erythrocytes to host endothelium through the parasite-derived P. falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1) adhesion proteins is central to the development of malaria pathogenesis. PfEMP1 proteins have diversified and expanded to encompass many sequence variants, conferring each parasite a similar array of human endothelial receptor-binding phenotypes. Here, we analyzed RNA-seq profiles of parasites isolated from 32 P. falciparum-infected adult travellers returning to Germany. Patients were categorized into either malaria naive (n = 15) or pre-exposed (n = 17), and into severe (n = 8) or non-severe (n = 24) cases. For differential expression analysis, PfEMP1-encoding var gene transcripts were de novo assembled from RNA-seq data and, in parallel, var-expressed sequence tags were analyzed and used to predict the encoded domain composition of the transcripts. Both approaches showed in concordance that severe malaria was associated with PfEMP1 containing the endothelial protein C receptor (EPCR)-binding CIDRα1 domain, whereas CD36-binding PfEMP1 was linked to non-severe malaria outcomes. First-time infected adults were more likely to develop severe symptoms and tended to be infected for a longer period. Thus, parasites with more pathogenic PfEMP1 variants are more common in patients with a naive immune status, and/or adverse inflammatory host responses to first infections favor the growth of EPCR-binding parasites

New directions in stabilisation policies

Recently, a new class of macroeconomic business cycle models has emerged. Stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models with rational expectations originally employed by RBC researchers are combined with nominal rigidities and imperfect competition traditionally highlighted by New Keynesian economists. This class of models leads to a new paradigm in business cycle theory and stabilization policies. The paper presents the main characteristics and implications of the new class of models in a predominantly non-technical way. In order to highlight the progress connected with the new class of models, it puts them into the context of former debates on stabilization policy, such as the Phillips curve dispute

Economies Inclusion in the Web of Science and Changes in Its Review Process

Economies is entering its third year of existence and an impressive amount of high-quality research has already been published. It is fair to say that Economies has already established itself as an international, peer-reviewed, open access journal. [...