Fear of appreciation

In recent years the term"fear of floating"has been used to describe exchange rate regimes that, while officially flexible, in practice intervene heavily to avoid sudden or large depreciations. However, the data reveals that in most cases (and increasingly so in the 2000s) intervention has been aimed at limiting appreciations rather than depreciations, often motivated by the neo-mercantilist view of a depreciated real exchange rate as protection for domestic industries. As a first step to address the broader question of whether this view delivers on its promise, the authors examine whether this"fear of appreciation"has a positive impact on growth performance in developing economies. The authors show that depreciated exchange rates appear to induce higher growth, but that the effect, rather than through import substitution or export booms as argued by the mercantilist view, works largely through thedeepening of domestic savings and capital accumulation.Currencies and Exchange Rates,Emerging Markets,Debt Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Macroeconomic Management

Diversity of amphibians in rice fields from northeastern Argentina

Se registró y analizó la diversidad y riqueza de una comunidad de anfibios que habita campos de arroz en el nordeste de Ar.gentina. Las muestras fueron obtenidas en el período comprendido entre octubre 2001 y junio 2003. Se identificaron 26 especies habitando cinco microhábitats: campos de arroz, zanjas y caminos, vegetación natural, vegetación acuática y barrancas. La vegetación natural fue el microhábitat más diverso mientras que las barrancas presentaron la menor cantidad de especies. El modelo de rango abundancia serie logarítmica fue el de mejor ajuste para tres de los microhábitats analizados, otro se ajustó al modelo geométrico y el restante al modelo de varilla rota. Los datos sugieren que los cultivos de arroz del nordeste argentino, podrían albergar una fauna muy diversa si están sujetos a un manejo apropiado.Registrou-se e analisou-se a diversidade e riqueza de uma comunidade de anfíbios que habita campos de arroz no nordeste da Argentina. As amostras foram obtidas no período compreendido entre outubro de 2001 e junho de 2003. Identificaram-se 26 espécies habitando cinco microhábitats: campos de arroz, sulcos e caminhos, vegetação natural, vegetação aquática e barrancas. A vegetação natural foi o microhábitat mais diverso enquanto que as barrancas apresentaram a menor quantidade de espécies. O modelo de espécie-abundância de série logarítmica foi o de melhor ajuste para três dos microhábitats analisados, outro foi ajustou ao modelo geométrico e o último ao modelo de vara quebrada. Os dados sugerem que os cultivos de arroz do nordeste argentino poderiam abrigar uma fauna muito diversa se estão sujeitos a uma manipulação apropriada.The anuran biodiversity and richness of a frog community inhabiting rice fields in northeastern Argentina was surveyed and analyzed. The samples were taken between October 2001 and June 2003. Twenty six species of amphibians were identified in five microhabitats: rice fields per se, ditches and paths, natural vegetation, aquatic vegetation and gullies. The natural vegetation was the most diverse of the microhabitats, while gullies were the poorest in species. The amphibian species of three of the microhabitats adjusted to the logarithmic range-abundance model, one to the geometric and one to the broken stick model. The data suggest that rice cropping in northeastern Argentina, if properly managed, can support a diverse anuran fauna.Fil: Duré Pitteri, Marta Inés. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Nordeste. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral; ArgentinaFil: Kehr, Arturo Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Nordeste. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral; ArgentinaFil: Schaefer, Eduardo Federico. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Nordeste. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral; ArgentinaFil: Marangoni, Federico. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Nordeste. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral; Argentin

A recovery operator for nontransitive approaches

In some recent articles, Cobreros, Egré, Ripley, & van Rooij have defended the idea that abandoning transitivity may lead to a solution to the trouble caused by semantic paradoxes. For that purpose, they develop the Strict-Tolerant approach, which leads them to entertain a nontransitive theory of truth, where the structural rule of Cut is not generally valid. However, that Cut fails in general in the target theory of truth does not mean that there are not certain safe instances of Cut involving semantic notions. In this article we intend to meet the challenge of answering how to regain all the safe instances of Cut, in the language of the theory, making essential use of a unary recovery operator. To fulfill this goal, we will work within the so-called Goodship Project, which suggests that in order to have nontrivial naïve theories it is sufficient to formulate the corresponding self-referential sentences with suitable biconditionals. Nevertheless, a secondary aim of this article is to propose a novel way to carry this project out, showing that the biconditionals in question can be totally classical. In the context of this article, these biconditionals will be essentially used in expressing the self-referential sentences and, thus, as a collateral result of our work we will prove that none of the recoveries expected of the target theory can be nontrivially achieved if self-reference is expressed through identities

Minos, Delfi e l'Occidente: identità cretesi a confronto attraverso una rilettura di Hdt. 7, 169-171

In Erodoto (7, 169-171) si racconta di come la Pizia dissuase i Cretesi dal prendere parte alla guerra contro Serse: i Greci non li avevano aiutati a vendicare Minosse ucciso da Kokalos in Sicilia. L’oracolo di Delfi, situato nella Terza Grecia stricto sensu, stabilisce un rapporto stretto fra Creta, isola appartenente lato sensu alla Terza Grecia, e l’Occidente italico. L’articolo propone un riesame dei capitoli di Erodoto e ha come obiettivo lo studio del ruolo di Delfi nella definizione dell’ethnicity cretese. Si analizza prima il rapporto fra Creta e Delfi, poi il probabile ruolo del santuario delfico nella restituzione ai Cretesi da parte del tiranno Terone delle ossa di Minosse e infine si sostiene il ruolo della polis di Cnossp nella costruzione dell’oracolo alla metà del V secolo a.C. Inoltre si mette in evidenza come le tradizioni creto-delfiche, che considerano cretesi provenienti dalla “Minoica Cnosso” i primi sacerdoti del culto delfico scelti da Apollo, rifiutano quelle tradizioni “occidentali”, presenti nel passo di Erodoto, che considerano i “barbari” Iapigi, antichi abitanti della Puglia, discendenti dei Cretesi di Minosse partiti in massa per vendicare il loro re morto in Sicilia e mai più ritornati in patria

Robustness of Cucker-Smale flocking model

Consider a system of autonomous interacting agents moving in space, adjusting each own velocity as a weighted mean of the relative velocities of the other agents. In order to test the robustness of the model, we assume that each pair of agents, at each time step, can fail to connect with certain probability, the failure rate. This is a modification of the (deterministic) Flocking model introduced by Cucker and Smale in Emergent behavior in flocks, IEEE Trans. on Autom. Control, 2007, 52 (May) pp. 852-862. We prove that, if this random failures are independent in time and space, and have linear or sub-linear distance dependent rate of decay, the characteristic behavior of flocking exhibited by the original deterministic model, also holds true under random failures, for all failure rates.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figure

On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes

The literature has identified three main approaches to account for the way exchange rate regimes are chosen: i) the optimal currency area theory; ii) the financial view, which highlights the consequences of international financial integration; and iii) the political view, which stresses the use of exchange rate anchors as credibility enhancers in politically challenged economies. Using de facto and de jure regime classifications, we test the empirical relevance of these approaches separately and jointly. We find overall empirical support for all of them, although the incidence of financial and political aspects varies substantially between industrial and non-industrial economies. Furthermore, we find that the link between de facto regimes and their underlying fundamentals has been surprisingly stable over the years, suggesting that the global trends often highlighted in the literature can be traced back to the evolution of their natural determinants, and that actual policies have been little influenced by the frequent twist and turns in the exchange rate regime debate.Exchange rates, Growth, Impossible trinity, Dollarization, Capital flows

A simple analytical description of the non-stationary dynamics in Ising spin systems

The analytical description of the dynamics in models with discrete variables (e.g. Isingspins) is a notoriously difficult problem, that can be tackled only undersome approximation.Recently a novel variational approach to solve the stationary dynamical regime has beenintroduced by Pelizzola [Eur. Phys. J. B, 86 (2013) 120], where simpleclosed equations arederived under mean-field approximations based on the cluster variational method. Here wepropose to use the same approximation based on the cluster variational method also for thenon-stationary regime, which has not been considered up to now within this framework. Wecheck the validity of this approximation in describing the non-stationary dynamical regime ofseveral Ising models defined on Erdos-R ́enyi random graphs: westudy ferromagnetic modelswith symmetric and partially asymmetric couplings, models with randomfields and also spinglass models. A comparison with the actual Glauber dynamics, solvednumerically, showsthat one of the two studied approximations (the so-called ‘diamond’approximation) providesvery accurate results in all the systems studied. Only for the spin glass models we find somesmall discrepancies in the very low temperature phase, probably due to the existence of alarge number of metastable states. Given the simplicity of the equations to be solved, webelieve the diamond approximation should be considered as the ‘minimalstandard’ in thedescription of the non-stationary regime of Ising-like models: any new method pretending toprovide a better approximate description to the dynamics of Ising-like models should performat least as good as the diamond approximation

On the Endogeneity of Exchange Rate Regimes

The literature has identified at least five approaches to the determinants of the choice of exchange rate regimes: i) optimal currency area theory; ii) exchange rate policy and the absortion of real and nominal shocks; iii) exchange rate rules as a policy crutch in credibility-challenged economies; iv) the impossible trinity in light of increasing financial globalization; and v) the balance sheet exposure to exchange rate changes in financially dollarized economies. Using both a de facto and a de jure regime classification, we test the empirical relevance of these approaches simultaneously. We find overall empirical support for all of them, although their relative relevance varies substantially between industrial and non-industrial economies. We show that regime choices, as well as deviations between actual and reported policies, can be accurately predicted by a small number of economic and political characteristics of each country. When regimes are correctly characterized, they display no time trend, suggesting that the trends typically highlighted in the exchange rate regime debate can be traced back to the evolution of their natural determinants