Using a physically-based model, tRIBS-Erosion, for investigating the effects of climate change in semi-arid headwater basins.

Soil erosion due to rainfall detachment and flow entrainment of soil particles is a physical process responsible for a continuous evolution of landscapes. The rate and spatial distribution of this phenomenon depend on several factors such as climate, hydrologic regime, geomorphic characteristics, and vegetation of a basin. Many studies have demonstrated that climate-erosion linkage in particular influences basin sediment yield and landscape morphology. Although soil erosion rates are expected to change in response to climate, these changes can be highly non-linear and thus require mechanistic understanding of underlying causes. In this study, an integrated geomorphic component of the physically-based, spatially distributed hydrological model, tRIBS, the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator, is used to analyze the sensitivity of semi-arid headwater basins to climate change. Downscaled outputs of global circulation models are used to inform a stochastic weather generator that produces an ensemble of climate scenarios for an area in the Southwest U.S. The ensemble is used as input to the integrated model that is applied to different headwater basins of the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed to understand basin response to climate change in terms of runoff and sediment yield. Through a model application to multiple catchments, a scaling relationship between specific sediment yield and drainage basin area is also addressed and probabilistic inferences on future changes in catchment runoff and yield are drawn. Geomorphological differences among catchments do not influence specific changes in runoff and sediment transport that are mostly determined by precipitation changes. Despite a large uncertainty dictated by climate change projections and stochastic variability, sediment transport is predicted to decrease despite a non-negligible possibility of larger runoff rates

Green roof effects on the rainwater response in the Mediterranean area: first results of a Sicilian case study

Over the last decades, we have been witnessing an increasing frequency of urban floods often attributed to the interaction between intensification of rainfall extremes due to climate change and increasing urbanization. Consequently, many studies have been trying to propose different new alternatives to mitigate ground effects of ever more frequent and severe extreme rainfall events in a context of growing urbanization, such as rain gardens, green roofs, permeable parking lots, etc., which are commonly referred to as green infrastructures. With this regard, one of the most promising mitigation solutions is represented by multilayer green roofs. These systems, coupling classical green roofs with a rainwater harvesting system, results in a high capacity in retaining rainwater, thus improving the potential effects acted by classical green roofs on pluvial floods mitigation. These systems are particularly suited for applications in semi-arid climate, where a fraction of the rainwater can be detained during the more severe rainfall events, significantly reducing the pressure on drainage systems, and released in a later moment or reused, for instance, to sustain the vegetation during driest periods. This study describes a multilayer green roof installed at the Department of Engineering of the University of Palermo (Sicily, Italy) and its preliminary results on its capacity to reduce the pressure of rainfall events on drainage systems in a Mediterranean context. The green roof has an extension of almost 35 m2 and is made of three different areas with different soil thickness (a mixture of volcanic material) and different Mediterranean vegetation. The green roof is equipped with multiple sensors to monitor the water level in the storage layer, soil water content, air and water temperature, and rainfall. Besides, a weighted rain gauge, a disdrometer, and a meteorological station for the collection of meteorological data are available as well. An equal size classical roof area bordering the green roof installation is also monitored. Four different thermometers are used to measure the temperatures in different points of the roofs and a system of two rain barrels and two pressure sensors allows to collect and compare the rainwater coming from the green and the original roofs. Such an installation, differently from many others, has the advantage to allow a complete characterization of the potential benefits of a multilayer green roof through a comparison of the rainwater released by the two roof configurations at a rainfall event scale. The study provides the preliminary results arising from the analysis of the two roof configurations' response to a series of rainfall events characterized by different duration and intensity

Detecting hydrological changes through conceptual model

Natural changes and human modifications in hydrological systems coevolve and interact in a coupled and interlinked way. If, on one hand, climatic changes are stochastic, non-steady, and affect the hydrological systems, on the other hand, human-induced changes due to over-exploitation of soils and water resources modifies the natural landscape, water fluxes and its partitioning. Indeed, the traditional assumption of static systems in hydrological analysis, which has been adopted for long time, fails whenever transient climatic conditions and/or land use changes occur. Time series analysis is a way to explore environmental changes together with societal changes; unfortunately, the not distinguishability between causes restrict the scope of this method. In order to overcome this limitation, it is possible to couple time series analysis with an opportune hydrological model, such as a conceptual hydrological model, which offers a schematization of complex dynamics acting within a basin. Assuming that model parameters represent morphological basin characteristics and that calibration is a way to detect hydrological signature at a specific moment, it is possible to argue that calibrating the model over different time windows could be a method for detecting potential hydrological changes. In order to test the capabilities of a conceptual model in detecting hydrological changes, this work presents different “in silico” experiments. A synthetic-basin is forced with an ensemble of possible future scenarios generated with a stochastic weather generator able to simulate steady and non-steady climatic conditions. The experiments refer to Mediterranean climate, which is characterized by marked seasonality, and consider the outcomes of the IPCC 5th report for describing climate evolution in the next century. In particular, in order to generate future climate change scenarios, a stochastic downscaling in space and time is carried out using realizations of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the future scenarios 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. Land use changes (i.e. changes in the fraction of impervious area due to increasing urbanization) are explicitly simulated, while the reference hydrological responses are assessed by the spatially distributed, process-based hydrological model tRIBS, the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator. Several scenarios have been created, describing hypothetical centuries with steady conditions, climate change conditions, land use change conditions and finally complex conditions involving both transient climatic modifications and gradual land use changes. A conceptual lumped model, the EHSM (EcoHydrological Streamflow Model) is calibrated for the above mentioned scenarios with regard to different time-windows. The calibrated parameters show high sensitivity to anthropic variations in land use and/or climatic variability. Land use changes are clearly visible from parameters evolution especially when steady climatic conditions are considered. When the increase in urbanization is coupled with rainfall reduction the ability to detect human interventions through the analysis of conceptual model parameters is weakened

Comprehensive Hydrological Modeling Tool for Flood Discharge Estimation in Sicilian Watersheds

Designing hydraulic infrastructures and/or carry out a flood risk assessment analysis, as mandated by Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament regarding the assessment and management of flood risk, needs estimating flood discharges for different return periods. In the current era, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) make more efficient the integration of spatially distributed data and advanced analytical tools for hydrological applications. This work introduces a Python-based tool that merges GIS functionalities (i.e., open-source geospatial libraries, such as native QGIS plugins, GDAL, SAGA) with hydrological modeling techniques, providing a comprehensive framework for watershed analysis aimed to derive synthetic flood hydrographs for specified return periods. The tool is composed of different modules, performing different operations: following the delineation of the watershed based on a user-specified outlet, the tool uses a regionalized approach to establish Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves and derives the synthetic Chicago hyetographs for specified return periods. The tool comprises a module for calculating runoff depths using the Curve Number method and another module where flow hydrographs are derived by using distributed unit hydrograph (D-UH) through a spatial representation of times of concentration, accounting for varying flow velocities within the watershed. Additionally, the tool allows for the simulation of the basin response to historical precipitation. In the present study, the tool underwent testing on catchments of Sicily (Italy) even if it is worth noting that the tool can be customized for application in various regions worldwide

Assessing the hydrological changes due to land use alterations

The increase of urbanized areas and, consequently, of the impervious surfaces in land-use distributions may have important implications on the basin hydrological response. As a direct impact, the increase of cemented areas reduces the available storage volume for water in the watershed, which in turn exacerbates the runoff generation. Additionally, drainage pathways can be altered and the travel time to the watershed outlet considerably speeded up, with impacts on the hydrograph characteristics. The complex interactions among different hydrological processes make the estimations of the hydrological changes highly non linear. The aim of this work is using an advanced physically-based and distributed model, i.e. tRIBS (TIN-based real-time integrated basin simulator), to evaluate how the changes in the hydrological properties affect the watershed response not only in terms of outlet discharge but also in terms of spatial distribution of the main hydrological variables (e.g., soil moisture patterns, groundwater level, etc...). Moreover, we evaluate whether and how the spatial pattern of the impervious areas increase affects the change in the hydrological response. The work has been carried out on the Baron Fork watershed, located in OK (USA), characterized by an area of about 800 km2 and for which the tRIBS model was successfully calibrated in the past. Specifically, we eval- uate the hydrological response for different extreme events typical of the area and different land-use configurations

Performances of GPM satellite precipitation over the two major Mediterranean islands

This study aims to assess the reliability of satellite-precipitation products from the Global Precipitation Measurements (GPM) mission in regions with complex landscape morphology. Our analysis is carried out in the European mid-latitude area, namely on the two major islands of Mediterranean Sea, i.e. Sardinia and Sicily (Italy). Both islands experience precipitation originating from the interaction of steep orography on the coasts with winds carrying humid air masses from the Mediterranean Sea. The GPM post real-time IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals from Global Precipitation Measurement) “Final” run product at 0.1° spatial resolution and half-hour temporal resolution have been selected for the two-year 2015–2016 period. Evaluation and comparison ofthe selected product, withreferenceto raingauge network data, areperformed athourly and daily time scales using statistical and graphical tools. The influences of morphology and land-sea coastal area transition on the reliability of the GPM product have been analysed. Confirming previous studies, results showed that GPM satellite data slightly overestimate rainfall over the study areas, but they are well correlated with the interpolated raingauge data. Metrics based on occurrences above a given threshold and on total volume above the same threshold were applied and revealed better performances for the latter ones. Applying the same metrics we show how GPM performances improve as the temporal aggregation increases. Several drawbacks were detected in the coastal areas, which were characterized by worse performances than internal areas. Statistics are generally very similar for the two considered case studies (i.e., Sardinia and Sicily) except for correlation between topography and accuracy of GPM products, which was slightly higher for Sardinia

L’INFLUENZA DELLA MORFOLOGIA SULLA DISTRIBUZIONE DELLE PIOGGE INTENSE

Le precipitazioni intense costituiscono uno dei principali pericoli naturali perché sono all’origine di processi, come innesco di frane o piene improvvise, che possono rappresentare una grave minaccia per la vita umana. Il problema di determinare la variazione spaziale delle precipitazioni intense e in particolare, di indagare sulle relazioni che intercorrono tra queste e la morfologia del territorio, è molto importante soprattutto per gli studi connessi alla realizzazione di efficienti sistemi di allerta e di allarme. Tuttavia la variabilità delle piogge intense con la morfologia è scarsamente studiata in idrologia. In questo lavoro si intende affrontare l’argomento a scala regionale, assumendo che le precipitazioni intense siano rappresentate dalle curve di probabilità pluviometrica che forniscono il quantile Tennale di assegnata durata come prodotto di un coefficiente di crescita in frequenza per una relazione di potenza che serve a riscalare le medie orarie nelle durate maggiori tramite due parametri, a e n. In tal modo lo studio può essere ricondotto all’analisi della variazione di questi due parametri in funzione di alcuni caratteri morfologici e fisiografici. Lo studio è stato condotto sui dati provenienti da 276 stazioni pluviografiche funzionanti sul territorio siciliano. E’ stata utilizzata sia la regressione stepwise sia la Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) pervenendo a risultati interessanti

A weather monitoring system for the study of precipitation fields, weather, and climate in an urban area

The possibility to study the precipitation dynamics with advanced and specific tools is an important task of the research activity addressing the understanding, the modeling, and the managing of rainfall events. Over the last years, the hydrology laboratory of the Department of Civil, Environmental, Aerospace Engineering, and Materials (DICAM) at the University of Palermo, has installed several instruments for the monitoring and the study of precipitation within the urban area of Palermo (Italy). The main instrument of this system is the X-band weather radar, which allows monitoring the precipitation fields with high resolution in space and time. This instrument is supported by a rain gauges network of 18 tipping bucket gauges spread over the observed area, a weight rain gauge, an optical disdrometer, and a weather station. The information provided by different devices can be combined in order to integrate different data and correct errors. In particular, the disdrometer is able to provide the drop size distribution (DSD) that is directly linked to the parameters used to transform radar reflectivity to precipitation estimates. Moreover, disdrometer observations can be used to classify the precipitation events. The rain gauges network data is used to apply a ground correction to the radar precipitation maps. Such an operation is useful to constrain the radar estimate to the observed ground precipitation value. Results obtained from a prototypal version of the system, that considers only the main applications designed, are discussed for a study event. Finally, all of the above instruments are embedded in an integrated early warning system able to provide warnings related to possible flood in the urban area of Palermo

Individuazione dei trend di pioggia per la Sicilia utilizzando un approccio multiscala basato sulla regressione a quantili

Uno degli argomenti più attuali e controversi è se, negli ultimi decenni, le piogge intense siano diventate più frequenti come possibile effetto dei cambiamenti climatici. La centralità del tema è giustificata dalle gravi conseguenze che l’intensificarsi di questi fenomeni, in frequenza e magnitudo, potrebbe indurre a livello sociale ed economico. Basti pensare alle “flash flood”, spesso causate da eventi di precipitazione con una forte componente convettiva, che in ambito urbano mettono in crisi i sistemi di drenaggio arrecando rilevanti danni e, purtroppo, anche perdite di vite umane. La Sicilia è stata spesso monitorata con l’obiettivo di individuare delle mutazioni significative del ciclo idrologico e, di conseguenza, dei fenomeni precipitativi, potenzialmente imputabili ad un clima che cambia. Ad oggi, l’identificazione di questi trend è principalmente incentrata sull’analisi dei valori estremi di pioggia, come ad esempio i massimi annuali o i valori eccedenti una determinata soglia, attraverso l’utilizzo di differenti test statistici, tra i quali spicca il test di Mann-Kendall. Tuttavia, l’analisi di un campione limitato, seppur significativo, di valori può portare a trascurare dei segnali nascosti nella totalità dei dati osservati. A partire da questa considerazione, il presente lavoro ha come obiettivo lo studio dei trend di precipitazione attraverso lo strumento della regressione a quantili, analizzando serie temporali continue di dati registrate da circa 80 stazioni pluviografiche della rete regionale SIAS nel periodo 2002 – 2019. In particolare, lo studio è stato condotto considerando un ampio ventaglio di durate dei fenomeni, a partire dalla risoluzione temporale delle serie temporali (10 minuti) fino a giungere all’aggregazione nelle 24 ore, e per differenti valori dei quantili (da 0.2 fino a 0.99). Il principale vantaggio della regressione a quantili è che nessun dato valido viene scartato ai fini dell’analisi, ma a tutti i valori che eccedono il quantile considerato viene assegnato un peso ad esso proporzionale, mentre il peso è complementare al valore del quantile nel caso dei valori inferiori alla soglia. I risultati hanno evidenziato che, soprattutto per i quantili più elevati (0.90, 0.95 e 0.99), vi sia un’evidente dipendenza tra i trend positivi e la durata della precipitazione. In particolare, vi è un aumento del numero di stazioni che mostrano un incremento significativo dell’intensità di pioggia oraria passando dalla durata di 24 ore fino a quelle sub-orarie. Ad esempio, circa il 50% delle stazioni considerate mostra un trend positivo per la durata di 10 minuti e per i quantili 0.95 e 0.99. Al contrario, considerando il quantile 0.2 è possibile riscontrare un aumento del numero di stazioni caratterizzate da decrementi significativi di intensità di pioggia oraria con la durata. Oltre alla dipendenza con la durata, è stata anche analizzata la variabilità spaziale dei trend di precipitazione attraverso l’indice di autocorrelazione di Moran, nella variante globale e locale. Dall’applicazione di quest’ultimo è stato riscontrato che la Sicilia sud-orientale è interessata da un aumento significativo dei trend di pioggia, soprattutto per la durata di 10 minuti