Resource dependent branching processes and the envelope of societies

Since its early beginnings, mankind has put to test many different society forms, and this fact raises a complex of interesting questions. The objective of this paper is to present a general population model which takes essential features of any society into account and which gives interesting answers on the basis of only two natural hypotheses. One is that societies want to survive, the second, that individuals in a society would, in general, like to increase their standard of living. We start by presenting a mathematical model, which may be seen as a particular type of a controlled branching process. All conditions of the model are justified and interpreted. After several preliminary results about societies in general we can show that two society forms should attract particular attention, both from a qualitative and a quantitative point of view. These are the so-called weakest-first society and the strongest-first society. In particular we prove then that these two societies stand out since they form an envelope of all possible societies in a sense we will make precise. This result (the envelopment theorem) is seen as significant because it is paralleled with precise survival criteria for the enveloping societies. Moreover, given that one of the "limiting" societies can be seen as an extreme form of communism, and the other one as being close to an extreme version of capitalism, we conclude that, remarkably, humanity is close to having already tested the limits.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AAP998 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The ELPAT Living Organ Donor Psychosocial Assessment Tool (EPAT): from 'What' to 'How' of Psychosocial Screening - a Pilot Study

Thorough psychosocial screening of donor candidates is required in order to minimize potential negative consequences and to strive for optimal safety within living donation programmes. We aimed to develop an evidence-based tool to standardize the psychosocial screening process. Key concepts of psychosocial screening were used to structure our tool: motivation and decision-making, personal resources, psychopathology, social resources, ethical and legal factors and information and risk processing. We (i) discussed how each item per concept could be measured, (ii) reviewed and rated available validated tools, (iii) where necessary developed new items, (iv) assessed content validity and (v) pilot-tested the new items. The resulting ELPAT living organ donor Psychosocial Assessment Tool (EPAT) consists of a selection of validated questionnaires (28 items in total), a semi-structured interview (43 questions) and a Red Flag Checklist. We outline optimal procedures and conditions for implementing this tool. The EPAT and user manual are available from the authors. Use of this tool will standardize the psychosocial screening procedure ensuring that no psychosocial issues are overlooked and ensure that comparable selection criteria are used and facilitate generation of comparable psychosocial data on living donor candidates.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Evaluating the performance of SURFEXv5 as a new land surface scheme for the ALADINcy36 and ALARO-0 models

The newly developed land surface scheme SURFEX (SURFace EXternalisee) is implemented into a limited-area numerical weather prediction model running operationally in a number of countries of the ALADIN and HIRLAM consortia. The primary question addressed is the ability of SURFEX to be used as a new land surface scheme and thus assessing its potential use in an operational configuration instead of the original ISBA (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere) scheme. The results show that the introduction of SURFEX either shows improvement for or has a neutral impact on the 2m temperature, 2m relative humidity and 10m wind. However, it seems that SURFEX has a tendency to produce higher maximum temperatures at high-elevation stations during winter daytime, which degrades the 2m temperature scores. In addition, surface radiative and energy fluxes improve compared to observations from the Cabauw tower. The results also show that promising improvements with a demonstrated positive impact on the forecast performance are achieved by introducing the town energy balance (TEB) scheme. It was found that the use of SURFEX has a neutral impact on the precipitation scores. However, the implementation of TEB within SURFEX for a high-resolution run tends to cause rainfall to be locally concentrated, and the total accumulated precipitation obviously decreases during the summer. One of the novel features developed in SURFEX is the availability of a more advanced surface data assimilation using the extended Kalman filter. The results over Belgium show that the forecast scores are similar between the extended Kalman filter and the classical optimal interpolation scheme. Finally, concerning the vertical scores, the introduction of SURFEX either shows improvement for or has a neutral impact in the free atmosphere

An ELPAT definition of the concept ‘Psychosocial’ in the context of Screening Living Organ Donors in Europe: A Concept Mapping approach

Introduction: Across Europe, transplant centers vary in the set of psychosocial screening criteria/guidelines used for the selection of eligible living donors. Our aim was to explore whether a common framework underlies this variation in screening criteria and, based on this framework, to develop a consensus on the essential elements of psychosocial screening of living liver and kidney donors. In order to do so, a research question was set out to define a conceptual framework of the concept ‘Psychosocial’ in the context of screening living organ donors in Europe. We formulated the following research question: Which psychosocial screening criteria are most commonly reported and considered as most important or effective in selecting eligible kidney and liver donors? Method: Concept mapping methodology was used to create a visual representation of the complex topic ‘Psychosocial’ in the context of screening living organ donors in Europe, in which underlying concepts, the relative importance of these concepts and the interplay between different concepts are organized. Initial psychosocial screening criteria (N=83) were derived from an extensive systematic literature review on guidelines, protocols and consensus statements on psychosocial screening practices, complemented by group brainstorm sessions. These criteria were then sorted and rated for their importance and effectiveness by 26 project participants. The data were analyzed using the Concept System Core© Software, which provided us with graphical depictions (concept maps) illustrating the view of project participants on these screening criteria. Pattern Matches and Go-Zones showed us the highlycommon, important and effective criteria. Results: The concept map procedure resulted in six clusters of psychosocial screening criteria: (1) Motivation and decision making (2) Personal resources (3) Psychopathology (4) Social resources (5) Ethical and Legal factors (6) Information and risk processing. Bivariate rating of these criteria revealed which important criteria are already frequently used for screening and which require more attention. Based on the cluster map and bivariate ratings we constructed a conceptual framework for non-medical risk factors that need to be considered when screening potential living organ donors. Conclusion: We provided a conceptual framework of psychosocial screening criteria which can serve as a practical recommendation for the psychosocial screening of potential living organ donors

Design and testing of an agricultural implement for underground application of rodenticide bait

An agricultural implement for underground application of rodenticide bait to control the Mediterranean pocket gopher (Microtus Duodecimcostatus) in fruit orchards has been designed and tested. The main objective of this research was to design and test the implement by using the finite element method (FEM) and considering a range of loads generated on most commonly used furrow openers in agricultural implements. As a second step, the prototype was tested in the field by analysing the effects of forward speed and application depth on the mechanical behaviour of the implement structure. The FEM was used in the design phase and a prototype was manufactured. The structural strains on the prototype chassis under working conditions were tested by using strain gauges to validate the design phase. Three forward speeds (4.5, 5.5, and 7.0 km/h), three application depths (0.12, 0.15, and 0.17 m), and two types of soil (clayey-silty-loam and clayey-silty-sandy) were considered. The prototype was validated successfully by analysing the information obtained from the strain gauges. The Von Mises stresses indicated a safety coefficient of 1.9 for the most critical load case. Although both forward speed and application depth had a significant effect on the stresses generated on the chassis, the latter parameter critically affected the structural behaviour of the implement. The effects of the application depth on the strains were linear such that strains increased with depth. In contrast, strains remained roughly constant regardless of variation in the forward speed

Digenic inheritance of human primary microcephaly delineates centrosomal and non-centrosomal pathways.

Primary microcephaly (PM) is characterized by a small head since birth and is vastly heterogeneous both genetically and phenotypically. While most cases are monogenic, genetic interactions between Aspm and Wdr62 have recently been described in a mouse model of PM. Here, we used two complementary, holistic in vivo approaches: high throughput DNA sequencing of multiple PM genes in human patients with PM, and genome-edited zebrafish modeling for the digenic inheritance of PM. Exomes of patients with PM showed a significant burden of variants in 75 PM genes, that persisted after removing monogenic causes of PM (e.g., biallelic pathogenic variants in CEP152). This observation was replicated in an independent cohort of patients with PM, where a PM gene panel showed in addition that the burden was carried by six centrosomal genes. Allelic frequencies were consistent with digenic inheritance. In zebrafish, non-centrosomal gene casc5 -/- produced a severe PM phenotype, that was not modified by centrosomal genes aspm or wdr62 invalidation. A digenic, quadriallelic PM phenotype was produced by aspm and wdr62. Our observations provide strong evidence for digenic inheritance of human PM, involving centrosomal genes. Absence of genetic interaction between casc5 and aspm or wdr62 further delineates centrosomal and non-centrosomal pathways in PM

Bacterial Infective Stifle Arthritis Secondary to a Migrating Grass Seed Foreign Body in an Adult Dog

An adult neutered male cocker spaniel was presented with a 2-3week history of left pelvic limb lameness, stifle effusion, general malaise and pyrexia. Computed tomography (CT) imaging revealed an irregular tubular tract, extending from the stifle distally to the level of the mid tibial diaphysis, associated with the long digital extensor muscle. Ultrasonography revealed the tract had echogenic contents, however no foreign body could be identified. Following surgical exploration, a grass seed was identified in the medial compartment of the left stifle. Culture of the grass seed and joint capsule tissue yielded growth of Pantoea agglomerans. Following the surgery and subsequent antibacterial and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory medication, the dog made a full recovery to normal activity

Twist exome capture allows for lower average sequence coverage in clinical exome sequencing

Background Exome and genome sequencing are the predominant techniques in the diagnosis and research of genetic disorders. Sufficient, uniform and reproducible/consistent sequence coverage is a main determinant for the sensitivity to detect single-nucleotide (SNVs) and copy number variants (CNVs). Here we compared the ability to obtain comprehensive exome coverage for recent exome capture kits and genome sequencing techniques. Results We compared three different widely used enrichment kits (Agilent SureSelect Human All Exon V5, Agilent SureSelect Human All Exon V7 and Twist Bioscience) as well as short-read and long-read WGS. We show that the Twist exome capture significantly improves complete coverage and coverage uniformity across coding regions compared to other exome capture kits. Twist performance is comparable to that of both short- and long-read whole genome sequencing. Additionally, we show that even at a reduced average coverage of 70× there is only minimal loss in sensitivity for SNV and CNV detection. Conclusion We conclude that exome sequencing with Twist represents a significant improvement and could be performed at lower sequence coverage compared to other exome capture techniques