Looking Behind the U. K.Term Structure: Were there Peso Problems in Inflation?

This paper develops and estimates a general equilibrium model for the term structures of nominal and real interest rates that incorporates regime-switching into the dynamics ofthe state variables. The model generates time-varying risk premia via changes in the covariance structure of the state variables and Peso problems through regime- switching. When the model is estimated using real and nominal yields from the U. K., I find that Peso problems emanating from instability in inflation have a significant impact on the nominal term structure. Peso problems affect (i) the sample predictability of excess returns, (ii) nominal term premia,and (iii) the inflation risk premia linking real and nominal yields with expected inflation.

The Microstructure of Currency Markets

This article summarizes exchange-rate research using microstructure models. It first lays out the key features of the foreign exchange market and describes how they are incorporated into a canonical model of currency trading. The empirical implications of the model are then examined. The article also discusses how currency trading links spot rate dynamics to macroeconomic conditions, and how this link sheds light on some long standing puzzles concerning the behavior of exchange rates.Currency Trading, Exchange Rates, Exchange Rate Puzzles, Exchange Rate Fundamentals, Foreign Exchange Market, Microstructure, Order Flow, Risk Premium

FX trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics

This paper provides new perspective on the poor performance of exchange rate models by focusing on the information structure of FX trading. I present a new theoretical model of FX trading that emphasizes the role of incomplete and heterogeneous information. The model shows how an equilibrium distribution of FX transaction prices and orders can arise at each point in time from the optimal trading decisions of dealers. This result motivates empirical investigation of how the equilibrium distribution of FX prices behaves using a new data set that details trading activity in the FX market. This analysis produces two striking results: (i) Much of the observed short-term volatility in exchange rates comes from sampling the heterogeneous trading decisions of dealers in an equilibrium distribution that, under normal market conditions, changes comparatively slowly. (ii) In contrast to the assumptions of traditional macro models, public news is rarely the predominant source of exchange rate movements over any horizon.Foreign Exchange, Trading, Microstructure

Real Risk, Inflation Risk, and the Term Structure

I develop and estimate a general equilibrium model for the term structures of nominal and real interest rates in the UK that incorporates Markov-switching. The model allows for non-neutralities, nonlinear dynamics, and flexibility in the dynamics of the risk premia - features that are all present in the data. I use the model to assess how accurately the term structure reflects changing expectations of future yields and inflation. This analysis shows that the presence of time-varying risk premia make it very hard to accurately track changes in the expected path of real or nominal yields over horizons of less than five years. By contrast, variations in inflation expected over the next two to three years are very accurately reflected by changes in spread between real and nominal yields, or by changes in nominal yields alone. Over longer horizons, the term structures closely track changing expectations regarding future nominal and real yields but not future inflation.Term Structure, Risk Premia, Inflation Risk, Markov-Switching

Order Flows and The Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle

The aim of this paper is to establish the link between the high frequency dynamics of spot exchange rates and developments in the macroeconomy. To do so, I first present a theoretical model of exchange-rate determination that bridges the gap between existing microstructure and traditional models. I then report empirical evidence that strongly supports the presence of the link between the macroeconomy, order flow and high frequency exchange rate returns implied by the model. In fact, my empirical results indicate that between 20 and 30 percent of the variance in excess currency returns over one- and two-month horizons can be linked back to developments in the macroeconomy. This level of explanatory power is an order of magnitude higher than that found in traditional models even the newly developed monetary models incorporating central banks reaction functions. Moreover, it provides a straightforward solution to the exchange-rate disconnect puzzle. Namely, the high frequency behavior of spot exchange rates reflects the flow of new information reaching dealers concerning the slowly evolving state of the macroeconomy, rather than the effects of shocks that drive rapidly changing macroeconomic conditions.Exchange Rate Dynamics, The Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle, Microstructure, Order Flow.

Exploring poverty gaps among children in the UK

"The purpose of this paper is to use poverty gap analysis to explore the depth of poverty experienced by children of low-income families in the UK. Measures set out in the Child Poverty Act1 and in the National Child Poverty Strategy2 are based on poverty headcounts, i.e. you are either below or above a certain poverty threshold. The most commonly used measure is the 60 per cent relative poverty measure, defined as individuals living in households with incomes below 60 per cent of the median income. The National Strategy, published in April 2011, introduces a new measure on severe poverty, defined as individuals living in households experiencing material deprivation and with incomes below 50 per cent of the median income. The head count does not distinguish between those with incomes just below the poverty line and those deeper in poverty. Policies which improve incomes for those at the bottom of the income distribution will not lead to a fall in measured income poverty, unless incomes are raised sufficiently to cross the chosen poverty threshold, and yet reducing these families’ depth of poverty is highly likely to improve living standards. This paper supplements the headcount measures with analysis of the ‘poverty gap’ for UK children. The poverty gap measures ‘How poor are the poor’ i.e. the extent of poverty for those who are below the relative poverty threshold. With this measure, an improvement in incomes for those in poverty which is not sufficient for them to escape poverty, is nevertheless captured as a drop in measured poverty. In practice, for each poor individual we measure the poverty gap by calculating the shortfall in their income from the poverty line, and expressing this as a percentage of the poverty line. For example, if the poverty line was 100 and the income was 25 then the poverty gap would be 75 per cent (100 minus 25 equals 75; 75 divided by 100 is 75 per cent). A poverty gap of 75 per cent can be interpreted as an income that is 75 per cent below the poverty line" - page 1

Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macro Economy

This paper describes a method for calculating daily real-time estimates of the current state of the U.S. economy. The estimates are computed from data on scheduled U.S. macroeconomic announcements using an econometric model that allows for variable reporting lags, temporal aggregation, and other complications in the data. The model can be applied to find real-time estimates of GDP, inflation, unemployment or any other macroeconomic variable of interest. In this paper I focus on the problem of estimating the current level of and growth rate in GDP. I construct daily real-time estimates of GDP that incorporate public information known on the day in question. The real-time estimates produced by the model are uniquely-suited to studying how perceived developments the macro economy are linked to asset prices over a wide range of frequencies. The estimates also provide, for the first time, daily time series that can be used in practical policy decisions.