Collaborative management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam increases economic benefits and resilience

From Springer Nature via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: received 2020-07-29, accepted 2021-08-13, registration 2021-09-07, pub-electronic 2021-09-23, online 2021-09-23, collection 2021-12Publication status: PublishedFunder: UK Research and Innovation: ES/P011373/1Abstract: The landscape of water infrastructure in the Nile Basin is changing with the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Although this dam could improve electricity supply in Ethiopia and its neighbors, there is a lack of consensus between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the dam operation. We introduce a new modeling framework that simulates the Nile River System and Egypt’s macroeconomy, with dynamic feedbacks between the river system and the macroeconomy. Because the two systems “coevolve” throughout multi-year simulations, we term this a “coevolutionary” modeling framework. The framework is used to demonstrate that a coordinated operating strategy could allow the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to help meet water demands in Egypt during periods of water scarcity and increase hydropower generation and storage in Ethiopia during high flows. Here we show the hydrological and macroeconomic performance of this coordinated strategy compared to a strategy that resembles a recent draft proposal for the operation of the dam discussed in Washington DC

NEXUS Gains Talk 11: Integrating Water Resources Management in a Shared River Basin

This webinar discusses application of a nexus tool to support water allocation reform in the Incomati Basin. NEXUS Gains has partnered with INMACOM and the University of Manchester to build a robust and comprehensive river basin systems model using an open-source Python water resources (Pywr) framework that accounts for water demands from agriculture, domestic, industry, and energy sectors. This webinar outlines the process of model co-development and presents preliminary results centering on emerging opportunities to foster greater benefits through more collective basin management

New nexus tool supports holistic management of the Incomati Basin

From its sources in the western mountains and plateau of Mpumalanga in South Africa to its mouth just north of Maputo’s bustling docks in Mozambique, the Incomati River basin supports lives, livelihoods, and irreplaceable ecosystems across eastern Southern Africa. However, growing irrigation and energy needs and accelerating climate change have placed increasing water stress on the transboundary river basin. Without responsive, data-driven, and coordinated management from the basin’s three countries – South Africa, Eswatini, and Mozambique – the lifeblood of the region is at risk of drying up

Collaborative management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam increases economic benefits and resilience

The landscape of water infrastructure in the Nile Basin is changing with the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Although this dam could improve electricity supply in Ethiopia and its neighbors, there is a lack of consensus between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the dam operation. We introduce a new modeling framework that simulates the Nile River System and Egypt's macroeconomy, with dynamic feedbacks between the river system and the macroeconomy. Because the two systems "coevolve" throughout multi-year simulations, we term this a "coevolutionary" modeling framework. The framework is used to demonstrate that a coordinated operating strategy could allow the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to help meet water demands in Egypt during periods of water scarcity and increase hydropower generation and storage in Ethiopia during high flows. Here we show the hydrological and macroeconomic performance of this coordinated strategy compared to a strategy that resembles a recent draft proposal for the operation of the dam discussed in Washington DC

Filling Africa’s largest hydropower dam should consider engineering realities

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River will double Ethiopia’s electricity generation and reduce the Nile flow to Sudan and Egypt during reservoir filling. We argue that multi-country negotiations over the initial filling and long-term operation of the GERD reservoir should not overlook key dam engineering features

Energy trade tempers Nile water conflict

The demand for energy, water and food in Africa continues to increase, resulting in growing pressure on contentious multisector resource systems like the River Nile. The ongoing dispute over Nile resources could become a zero-sum game if addressed from a water-centric viewpoint. Understanding how energy system management impacts water infrastructure introduces new opportunities to solve water conflicts. Although benefit-sharing of water resources in the Nile Basin has been promoted to counteract water volume disputes, it has not yielded actionable solutions to the toughest negotiations over the past two decades. Here we develop a detailed and integrated energy–river basin system simulator of 13 East African countries, including the Nile Basin, and show how new electricity trade agreements between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt could help resolve the ongoing water dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The results show that increasing energy trade can reduce Egyptian water deficits, reduce regional greenhouse gas emissions, increase hydropower generation in all three countries, reduce energy curtailment in Sudan and increase Ethiopia’s financial returns from electricity. This study underscores how spatial quantification of river–energy system interdependencies can help decision-makers find actionable multisector benefit-sharing solutions

Designing diversified renewable energy systems to balance multisector performance

Renewable energy system development and improved operation can mitigate climate change. In many regions, hydropower is called to counterbalance the temporal variability of intermittent renewables like solar and wind. However, using hydropower to integrate these renewables can affect aquatic ecosystems and increase cross-sectoral water conflicts. We develop and apply an artificial intelligence-assisted multisector design framework in Ghana, which shows how hydropower’s flexibility alone could enable expanding intermittent renewables by 38% but would increase sub-daily Volta River flow variability by up to 22 times compared to historical baseload hydropower operations. This would damage river ecosystems and reduce agricultural sector revenues by US$169 million per year. A diversified investment strategy identified using the proposed framework, including intermittent renewables, bioenergy, transmission lines and strategic hydropower re-operation could reduce sub-daily flow variability and enhance agricultural performance while meeting future national energy service goals and reducing CO2 emissions. The tool supports national climate planning instruments such as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by steering towards diversified and efficient power systems and highlighting their sectoral and emission trade-offs and synergies