The mark-ups in the Spanish economy : international comparison and recent evolution

This paper estimates the steady state mark-ups of 23 branches of activity in seven developed countries (USA, Japan, Germany, France, UK, Italy and Spain). The empirical methodology departs from the Hall (1988) seminal approach and incorporates the possibility of non-competitive labour markets. Besides, it is used a time varying parameter (TVP) estimation technique in order to compute the evolution of steady state mark-ups. Looking at the constant parameter estimations, it emerges a clear dichotomy between two groups of countries: USA and UK, with the lowest mark-ups, and Japan and Germany, in the other side of the spectrumItaly and Spain keep an intermediate position. With respect to the bargaining power of trade unions, the dichotomy between Anglo-Saxon countries, where it is almost inexistent, and Central European countries is even more marked. Allowing these parameters to evolve in time, the results are also interesting: there have been increases in mark ups in Italy, France and Germanyon the contrary, in USA, Japan, UK and Spain they have diminished. In the case of the bargaining power of the trade unions, all these countries have shown reductions since 1980, with the only exception of Germany. Finally, the paper finds a quite robust inverse relation between productivity growth, mark ups and the bargaining power of trade unions, although the quantitative effects are moderate

Creditor countries and debtor countries : some asymmetries in the dynamics of external wealth accumulation

Artículo de revistaFollowing the global financial crisis, the external imbalances in terms of countries’ current account balances have been reduced to a large extent. However, the imbalances measured in terms of net external wealth (or net international investment position, NIIP) have continued to increase. The empirical analysis presented in this article suggests that there is asymmetry between net debtor countries (negative NIIP) and net creditor countries (positive NIIP), with potential implications for global trade and growth. In the case of debtors, their negative NIIP contributes to reducing current account deficits and is therefore a stabilising factor. Conversely, in the case of the creditors, the NIIP contributes to increasing current account surpluses which, in turn, strengthens the dynamics of wealth accumulation in these countries, compared with the rest of the worl

The Spanish block of the ESCB-Multi-Country Model

Se presenta el bloque español (ES-MCM) del modelo Multi-Pais del Sistema Europeo de Bancos Centrales (ESCB-MCM) para el area del euro, que ha sido desarrollado conjuntamente por el Banco de España. Este modelo guarda una estrecha relacion con el Are-Wide Model del ECB (AWM, see Fagan et al. 2001), tanto desde un punto de vista teorico como contable. Esto se debe a que, al igual que el AWM, el ES-MCM y el resto de bloques del ESCB-MCM se usan en los ejercicio de prediccion del ESCB. La estructura teorica del ES-MCM esta en linea con la mayoria de los moedlos macroeconomicos que se utilizan en la actualidad. En la version actual de este modelo, las expectativas se consideran de forma implicita mediante la inclusion de los valores retrasados de las variables. Incluye tambien una regla de politica fiscal en linea con el Pacto de Crecimiento y Estabilidad, que evita el incumplimiento de la restriccion de solvencia del sector publico. (ad

Function and application of the new macroprudential tools available to the Banco de España

Following the global financial crisis, banking regulation incorporated macroprudential policy into the authorities’ toolkit with the aim of mitigating so-called “systemic risk”. This is namely the risk of financial instability becoming so widespread that it hampers the functioning of the financial system, to such an extent that economic growth and citizens’ well-being are adversely affected. One of the distinctive characteristics of this risk is that it is multi-dimensional; accordingly, a broad range of specific tools is needed to be able to tackle each of these dimensions. Up to a year ago Spanish regulations, deriving from European regulations, basically provided for macroprudential tools that could bear on banks’ solvency requirements. Since then it has added other tools, some of which are common to other jurisdictions, that allow action to be taken on specific credit portfolios or on specific characteristics of the loans granted by banks. This article sets out these new tools, discussing their main properties and their potential scope for operating in practice. It also reviews some of the challenges that future revisions or future extensions of the macroprudential toolbox may pose

Durable consumption and house purchases : evidence from Spanish panel data

En este trabajo se derivan y estiman ecuaciones de Euler para el gasto en bienes de consumo duradero, recogiendo la influencia que tiene la decision de adquirir una vivienda en la localizacion intertemporal de la compra de duraderos. Para ello, se utiliza un panel de datos obtenido de la Encuesta Continua de Presupuestos Familiares (1985.I-1991.IV). El principal resultado obtenido es que existe un efecto significativo de la compra de vivienda principal en el gasto duradero, el cual viene a representar un aumento de diez veces en este componente del gasto de las familias. Esto induce a pensar que el notable aumento de la demanda de vivienda en propiedad de los años ochenta es un factor explicativo relevante en el aumento del consumo en ese periodo. (aeg) (obh) (igg

Microeconomic price adjustments and inflation : evidence from Spanish sectoral data

El objetivo de este documento es analizar las implicaciones que tienen diferentes caracterizaciones de las politicas de ajuste de precios a nivel empresarial para la evolucion de la inflacion agregada. Tomando como marco de referencia los trabajos de Caballero y Engel, estos modelos se estiman utilizando informacion sectorial para España, comparando su capacidad para explicar el comportamiento de la inflacion con el modelo de ajuste parcial. Las principales conclusiones que se pueden extraer son las siguientes: 1) este tipo de modelos recoge de forma algo mas precisa que los de ajuste parcial la evolucion de la inflacion2) existe escasa evidencia de diferencias en la magnitud de las rigideces de precios al alza y a la baja, y 3) el impacto sobre la inflacion agregada de las rigideces nominales es significativo. (ae) (ad

Spanish boom-bust and macroprudential policy

Artículo de revistaIn this paper we review the experience of the last Spanish boom and bust to cast some reflections on macroprudential policy. These reflections take place in a country, Spain that is a (relatively small) member of a larger monetary union, which also has a single banking microsupervisor as well as a central bank, the ECB that can top-up national macroprudential decisions. Beyond the euro zone, the experience of the Spanish lending boom-bust maybe also interesting for other policy makers, with a full array of tools to tame the lending cycle

Nuevas herramientas para la gobernanza económica global : marco para el crecimiento y supervisión de desequilibrios

Artículo de revist

El saldo de la balanza por cuenta corriente ajustado de ciclo : un análisis para las economías del G-20

Artículo de revist

Growth beyond imbalances : sustainable growth rates and output gap reassessment

Incluye bibliografíaLa «Gran Recesión» vino precedida por una dilatada fase de alto crecimiento junto con inflación baja y estable, llamada la «Gran Moderación». Durante ese período, las estimaciones del crecimiento potencial eran elevadas y las brechas de producción se mantenían muy moderadas. Sin embargo, se estaban ampliando paulatinamente otros desequilibrios, que finalmente desencadenaron la peor crisis de las últimas décadas. Por tanto, las estimaciones tradicionales de crecimiento potencial, que consideran la inflación como el indicador que resume todos los desequilibrios macroeconómicos, junto con la propia estabilidad de la inflación es este período, proporcionaron información inadecuada a los responsables económicos. Este documento presenta una metodología para estimar la tasa de crecimiento sostenible de una economía, como una alternativa al crecimiento potencial. El crecimiento sostenible se define como aquel que no genera o amplía los desequilibrios macroeconómicos, identificados con un amplio conjunto de indicadores internos y externos. Esto nos permitirá reevaluar la evolución de las brechas de producción de Estados Unidos, Reino Unido, España, Alemania y China, tanto en la etapa de «Gran Moderación» como durante la «Gran Recesión». En países con profundos desequilibrios, el crecimiento sostenible estimado es más estable que el potencial, generando brechas de producción mucho mayores en la fase previa a la crisis‘The Great Recession’ was preceded by a prolonged period of high growth accompanied by low and stable inflation, the so called ‘Great Moderation’. During that period, potential growth estimates were trending upwards and output gaps remained small. However, other imbalances were progressively accumulating, eventually bringing about the worst crisis in decades. Standard potential growth estimates, which consider inflation as the only indicator of macroeconomic imbalances, along with the stability of inflation in that period, therefore provided misleading signals to policymakers. This paper introduces a methodology to obtain sustainable growth rates, as an alternative measure to potential growth. Sustainable growth is defined as the output growth that does not generate or widen macroeconomic imbalances, identified through a wide set of domestic and external indicators. This allow us to reassess the behavior of output gaps in the US, the UK, Spain, Germany and China both in ‘the Great Moderation’ period and during ‘the Great Recession’. In countries with large imbalances, sustainable growth rates are more stable than potential growth resulting in output gaps that were substantially larger in the period prior to the crisi