Some pay much but many don’t: Vehicle TCO imputation in travel surveys

Costs of cars are among the most relevant factors influencing travel behavior. However, there is a lack of data about the true costs of car ownership and specifically on how these costs are distributed across different vehicles and across the population. This paper presents a multistage method for imputing car costs by cost item in a German national travel survey data set. Based on vehicle information reported by survey participants, we assign costs to each of the three thousand cars in the data set using the most comprehensive German vehicle cost data base. In addition to combining different data sets, we use model based imputation methods. In order to validate the average costs for private vehicles we analyze the German income and expenditure survey EVS. The average total cost of ownership for a private car in Germany is about 310 Euros per month. This translates to about 30 Eurocents per auto-km. About one third of the costs are fuel, another third is depreciation, and the rest are other mainly fixed costs (insurance, tax, repair and maintenance). However, the cost distribution is strongly skewed with a long tail to the right. Hence, the majority of motorists pay less than average for their private vehicles while few pay more and evidently some pay a lot more. This imputation approach delivers unprecedented vehicle cost information in particular with regard to the distribution of vehicle costs. Such data is key for understanding the fundamentals of mobility choices

Workshop Synthesis: Behavioral changes in travel – challenges and implications for their identification and measurement

Transportation policy measures aim to motivate people to change their travel behavior (e.g. to use sustainable modes of transportation instead of a car). Furthermore, life events (e.g. birth of a child, retirement) often result in changes in travel behavior. On the other hand, structural processes (e.g. the exchange of differently car-socialized cohorts) might result in changes in travel volumes as well, but the underlying reasons for this cannot be regarded as behavioral changes. A major goal in the workshop was to find a comprehensive definition of behavioral change. Based on this definition, methodological approaches have been discussed and distinguished from each other and methods for the identification and measurement of behavioral changes by use of different methodical approaches have been revealed

Mikroskopische Abbildung von Pkw-Nutzungsprofilen im Längsschnitt

In dieser Arbeit wird ein Ansatz entwickelt, um Pkw-Nutzung im zeitlichen Längsschnitt abzubilden. Der gewählte Ansatz erlaubt es, die Unterschiedlichkeit der Fahrzeugnutzung, aufgelöst auf Einzelfahrten, repräsentativ für die deutsche Flotte über ein ganzes Jahr zu modellieren. Die Relevanz einer längsschnittorientierten Betrachtung der Pkw-Nutzung wir anhand aktueller verkehrspolitischer und verkehrsplanerischer Fragestellungen aufgezeigt

Mikroskopische Abbildung von Pkw-Nutzungsprofilen im Längsschnitt

Die Analyse von Pkw-Nutzungscharakteristika im zeitlichen Längsschnitt ist ein vergleichsweise neues Forschungsfeld, das mit dem Aufkommen der Elektromo-bilität weiter an Bedeutung gewonnen hat. Für eine Abschätzung des Potenzials von Elektrofahrzeugen mit begrenzten Reichweiten werden beispielsweise Kennt-nisse zur Intensität und Variabilität der Nutzung von Pkw im Fernverkehr benötigt. Aber auch für die Entwicklung und Bewertung von Verkehrspolitiken sowie für die Abschätzungen der Marktpotenziale neuer Mobilitätskonzepte sind Kenntnisse der Variabilität und Stabilität der Pkw-Nutzung im Längsschnitt relevant. Originäre, repräsentative und längsschnittorientierte Daten zur Nutzung von Pkw in Deutschland sind jedoch bislang nicht verfügbar. Um die aufgezeigten Fragestellungen zu beantworten, wird im Rahmen dieser Arbeit ein Ansatz entwickelt, um Pkw-Nutzung im zeitlichen Längsschnitt abzubilden. Der gewählte Ansatz erlaubt es, die Unterschiedlichkeit der Fahrzeugnutzung, aufgelöst auf Einzelfahrten, repräsentativ für die deutsche Flotte über ein ganzes Jahr abzubilden. Eingabedaten sind empirische Erhebungsdaten zum Mobilitätsverhal-ten von Personen und zur Pkw-Nutzung, die sich in Granularität und zeitlicher Auflösung unterscheiden. Anhand von vier Anwendungsfällen wird die Relevanz einer längsschnittorien-tierten Betrachtung der Pkw-Nutzung exemplarisch aufgezeigt. Zunächst wird die Intensität der Pkw-Nutzung im Fernverkehr analysiert und hieraus Implikationen für die Elektromobilität abgeleitet. Das Ersetzungspotenzial von Privat-Pkw durch stationsbasiertes Carsharing wird in einem weiteren Anwendungsfall untersucht. Es folgt ein Vergleich der Verteilungseffekte von drei Pkw-Mautformen für Bundesautobahnen. Das für Deutschland entwickelte Pkw-Nutzungsmodell wird abschließend auf den kalifornischen Markt angewandt und die Nutzungs-charakteristika der Pkw in Deutschland und Kalifornien mittels einer Clusteranalyse verglichen

Small and Light Electric Vehicles: An Analysis of Feasible Transport Impacts and Opportunities for Improved Urban Land Use

Improvements in battery technology have resulted in small and light electric vehicles (LEVs) appearing on the market in Europe since 2011—however, their market share is still comparatively low. Low energy requirements and small size can potentially contribute to sustainable mobility in terms of climate protection and reduced local emissions. Our study evaluates how three-wheeled and four-wheeled vehicles, categorised as L-Class according to Regulation (EU) No 168/2013, can contribute to more efficient use of space in urban areas. Evaluations of expert interviews, an extensive literature research, and analyses of the German national household travel survey (MiD) serve as the basis of the study. First, the substitution potential of trips through LEVs is explored using MiD data. Our findings show that between 17% and 49% of trips made and 6% to 30% of the distance covered by private trips can theoretically be substituted by LEVs. Thus, reorganisation of current land use offers potential and additionally, LEVs are an attractive and sustainable addition to other means of transport and contribute to achieving the climate protection goals of the transport sector. Due to the fact that technology application is restricted by travel behaviour and political support, our study discusses possible support by public bodies towards sustainable mobility. Here, the promotion of LEVs in combination with restrictive measures for cars is necessary

Mobility-on-demand pricing versus private vehicle TCO: how cost structures hinder the dethroning of the car

This study uses a unique dataset on the cost of motoring in Germany to analyse cost competitiveness of emerging mobility-on-demand (MOD) services. Previous studies have focused on comparing current and projected MOD prices with the average cost of private motoring. This study quantifies which proportion of private car travel would actually turn out to be costlier than MOD given that MOD costs drop below certain levels relative to the cost of private motoring. In this context, not the average but the distribution of the costs of motoring are the key issue. These costs are strongly skewed across the cars in private households when including new and old vehicles: a large proportion of private car kilometres are driven at relatively low cost. The study uses simplified scenario settings with MOD price levels ranging from 0.1 €/km to 1.5 €/km to make predictions of hypothetical modal shifts under the assumption that car user switch to the most economic mode of travel. These modal shifts serve as an indicator of MOD cost competitiveness. The results indicate that MOD prices would have to drop to 0.5 €/km or lower to have a notable impact on use of the private car if cost was the key mode choice criterion. Only if MOD prices drop down to a level of about 0.3 €/km—quite possibly a lower boundary for automated MOD—MOD-enabled mobility packages would be the less costly alternative to the private car for a substantial proportion of mileage. However, even at that MOD price level, the private car would still be the most economic option for the majority of today’s car user kilometres. Our findings illustrate that the skewed distribution of the cost of owning and running private cars—where many of those who drive much drive inexpensively—substantially dampens the disruptive potential of MOD. While we use data from Germany to illustrate this, many of our findings are more widely applicable

Some pay much but many don’t: Vehicle TCO imputation in travel surveys

Costs of cars are among the most relevant factors influencing travel behavior. However, there is a lack of data about the true costs of car ownership and specifically on how these costs are distributed across different vehicles and across the population. This paper presents a multistage method for imputing car costs by cost item in a German national travel survey data set. Based on vehicle information reported by survey participants, we assign costs to each of the three thousand cars in the data set using the most comprehensive German vehicle cost data base. In addition to combining different data sets, we use model based imputation methods. In order to validate the average costs for private vehicles we analyze the German income and expenditure survey EVS. The average total cost of ownership for a private car in Germany is about 310 Euros per month. This translates to about 30 Eurocents per auto-km. About one third of the costs are fuel, another third is depreciation, and the rest are other mainly fixed costs (insurance, tax, repair and maintenance). However, the cost distribution is strongly skewed with a long tail to the right. Hence, the majority of motorists pay less than average for their private vehicles while few pay more and evidently some pay a lot more. This imputation approach delivers unprecedented vehicle cost information in particular with regard to the distribution of vehicle costs. Such data is key for understanding the fundamentals of mobility choices

Mixed mode survey design and panel repetition – findings from the German Mobility Panel

The German Mobility Panel is a multi-day and multi-period panel survey, which has been collecting data on travel behavior in Germany since 1994. Declining survey participation rates in the last decade in various socio-demographic groups resulted in the implementation of a mixed-mode design for the German Mobility Panel, both in the sampling stage (landline and mobile phone recruitment) and in the data collection stage (paper and web). This study deals with two questions: does the new mixed-mode design affect a person’s willingness to continue participating in the consecutive survey waves? Is there a causal relation between data quality and completeness of survey repeaters and survey mode in the data collection stage? Our results show that survey mode and drop out propensity are not linked but web participants are more likely to switch their survey mode in the consecutive year. Overall, our study makes a case of how adaptations to the survey modes in a longitudinal panel survey on travel behavior affect the survey outcomes

Decoding Urban Archetypes: Exploring Mobility-Related Homogeneity among Cities

To make cities more sustainable and livable and to achieve climate targets in transportation, cities around the globe must undergo sustainable transformations. However, disparities in initial conditions pose challenges when trying to implement these sustainable changes. Identifying these differences aids in the comprehension of future developments. In this study, we establish an international comparison by decoding the mobility-related characteristics of cities and determining urban archetypes. Using publicly accessible data, we analyze and classify 96 cities in different countries. Therefore, we utilize principal component analysis to simplify the data. The emerging components serve as input for segmentation. This approach yields nine unique urban archetypes, ranging from Well-Functioning and Ancient Hybrid Cities in Europe to Paratransit and Traffic-Saturated Cities in the southern hemisphere. Our results show that there is a significant advantage to using a multidimensional segmentation basis, which we identify in an extensive literature review. The result is a finer segmentation, which is especially clear for European cities that demonstrate four different clusters. We discuss that the effect of future restrictions on private car usage will vary widely between the urban archetypes

CO2-Emissionen im Personenverkehr: Einfluss von Soziodemographie, Wohnort und Einkommen

Für verschiedene Bevölkerungsgruppen wurde untersucht, welchen Einfluss Soziodemografie, Wohnort und Einkommen auf die durchschnittlichen jährlichen CO2-Emissionen haben. Die Analysen zeigen, dass die durchschnittlichen CO2-Emissionen von Stadt- und Landbevölkerung nahezu identisch sind, jedoch mit dem Haushaltseinkommen ansteigen. Datengrundlage der detaillierten Analysen zu den CO2-Emissionen im Personenverkehr ist ein Datensatz, der die Gesamtmobilität der in Deutschland lebenden Bevölkerung umfasst, d. h. alle Verkehrsmodi sowie Wege und Fahrten im In- und Ausland