From War to Integration: Generalizing the Dynamic of Power Transitions

Generalizing the dynamics implied by power transition theory, we characterize the structural conditions that lead nations to initiate conflict or choose to integrate. The relationship between changes in relative power, hierarchical structures, and joint satisfaction are used to identify the structural conditions for conflict and cooperation. Empirical tests for the last two centuries confirm the strength and robustness of this characterization. In addition, long term assessments of Pax Britannica, the Cold War, and China’s potential challenge to the United States in this century are used to illustrate the precision of these findings. The fundamental implication is that structural conditions provide the pre-conditions for conflict and cooperation, but decision makers have leeway in advancing policies that eventually lead to either war or peace.

Renewables and the future of geopolitics: Revisiting main concepts of international relations from the lens of renewables

The development of renewable energy is often treated as a purely positive outcome for the world, without consideration of the challenges that come with implementation at scale, which will inevitably follow with the process of a global energy transition. Studies on the political process of the transition to a world of renewables are scarce. This article provides a review on the geopolitical, institutional, and technological aspects of the development of renewable energy sources, including transportation and delivery of energy across national borders. At scale internationally, renewable energy will present many of the same issues as other mature sources of energy. Security, export interdependence, and the availability of source materials will all become increasingly important concerns

Senturion: Predictive Political Simulation Model

This paper summarizes work utilizing the Senturion predictive analysis software at the National Defense University (NDU). The Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) at NDU has been testing the Senturion capability since 2002, and has begun to support the application of this new technology in DOD. In this paper, we begin by describing the methodology underlying the software, and then provide an overview of three case studies that used the software: a predictive analysis of the stabilization and reconstruction phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), the run-up to the Iraqi elections in January 2005, and the leadership transition in Palestine following the death of Yasser Arafat. Each of these projects tested the application of the software’s modeling technology to unfolding events. Each analysis was performed and briefed to senior government decision makers well in advance of events; the forecasts from each project tracked well with reality, often providing counter intuitive results. The approach provides policymakers and analysts with a tool for anticipating the outcome of complex political events that can also provide a detailed explanation of why events may not unfold as expected with traditional means of analysis

A Bounded Rationality Analysis of the Cyprus Problem

The time frame for a final decision on the Cyprus problem is narrowing very rapidly. The latest peace plan proposed by the U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, known as the Annan Plan, to solve the problem between the Greek Cypriot (G/Cs) and Turkish Cypriot (T/Cs) communities underwent the last refinements in February 2003 to bridge the gap between the two sides. Yet, despite intense domestic (especially in the Turkish north) and international pressures on the two sides to sign the agreement the Turkish Cypriot leadership rejected the proposal as being insufficient in meeting their demands. Despite the apparent low in negotiations between the two sides, there is still an opportunity to revive the Annan Plan as the basis for negotiated settlement before Cyprus joins the European Union (EU) in 2004. The U.S., the E.U., and the U.N. have all given signals that they are willing to tackle the problem before Cyprus joins the EU in 2004. Given the gravity of the present situation, we provide an expected utility analysis of the problem in an attempt to determine areas of mutual cooperation between the two sides that could resolve the apparent deadlock

Iran sanctions: implications for the oil market

United States (U.S.) Iran energy sanction waivers expired May 2, 2019. The waivers permitted eight economies (China, Greece, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey) to temporarily continue buying oil from Iran. Based on KAPSARC modeling of the political decision-making process, this Instant Insight – the first such KAPSARC publication – finds that the international community, and indeed some of the waiver economies, will at best partially comply with reinstated sanctions. China, India and Turkey are particularly unlikely to comply with U.S. sanctions and will maintain much of their current oil trade with Iran, the modeling shows. The paper also simulates the likely impact on the global oil price of ending the waivers in four scenarios which show: i) no oil price rise if the sanctions don’t work at all, ii) an oil price rise of up to 12% by Q2 2020 if Iranian oil exports drop by an average 42%, iii) a 30%-plus price increase if the sanctions are 100% effective, and iv) no significant price change if Saudi Arabia offsets reduced Iranian crude oil exports by increasing its output and exports

From war to integration: generalizing the dynamic of power transitions

Generalizing the dynamics implied by power transition theory, we characterize the structural conditions that lead nations to initiate conflict or choose to integrate. The relationship between changes in relative power, hierarchical structures, and joint satisfaction are used to identify the structural conditions for conflict and cooperation. Empirical tests for the last two centuries confirm the strength and robustness of this characterization. In addition, long term assessments of Pax Britannica, the Cold War, and China's potential challenge to the United States in this century are used to illustrate the precision of these findings. The fundamental implication is that structural conditions provide the pre-conditions for conflict and cooperation, but decision makers have leeway in advancing policies that eventually lead to either war or peace

Toward the Integration of Policymaking Models and Economic Models

Practical economic policy is often shaped by non-economic considerations. However, economic models typically treat policy choices as exogenously specified. Similarly, strategic models of bargaining typically use simple, fixed models of economics, when they use any economic model at all. In reality, political and economic policies are entwined as each may affect the other. This paper outlines one approach to endogenizing some of the non-economic interactions which shape the choice and implementation of economic policies. Economic policies can have disparate impacts across different regions, industries, or social groups. While the criterion of Pareto-optimality can direct policymakers’ attention to the efficient frontier, there still remains the problem of weighing those disparate impacts to select a particular policy on the frontier. Understanding how different policymakers weigh the impacts differently is often key to estimating the range of plausible policy choices. The KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis (KTAB) is a platform that enables the modeling and analysis of collective decision making processes (CDMPs), such as the negotiations over different economic policies. Rather than present the full range of models which can be built from KTAB libraries, we focus this discussion on a series of simple models, beginning with the classic one-dimensional spatial model of politics (SMP). The SMP is then generalized to handle multiple dimensions with different sub-models of actor's behavior. Next, the model is extended to include non-deterministic outcomes. With this framework in place, we then describe an early trial application of KTAB which links bargaining with a simple economic model, thus providing an initial example of integrating the policymaking process and the economic consequences of policy choices. We build a very simple economic model to illustrate how a natural search process can generate strategically sophisticated economic policies

Unexpected Implications of an Expanding European Union

Using a power transition perspective, this presentation analyzes the regional and global implications of different enlargement formulations of the European Union (EU) during the first half of the 21st century. First, it assesses the consequences of expanded EU membership with varying enlargement scenarios on global power distributions and considers the EU\u27s position in the new world order. Next, it examines EU\u27s external economic and security relations and considers how they might be affected by future enlargement of the Union

Renewables and the future of geopolitics: Revisiting main concepts of international relations from the lens of renewables

The development of renewable energy is often treated as a purely positive outcome for the world, without consideration of the challenges that come with implementation at scale, which will inevitably follow with the process of a global energy transition. Studies on the political process of the transition to a world of renewables are scarce. This article provides a review on the geopolitical, institutional, and technological aspects of the development of renewable energy sources, including transportation and delivery of energy across national borders. At scale internationally, renewable energy will present many of the same issues as other mature sources of energy. Security, export interdependence, and the availability of source materials will all become increasingly important concerns