Energy Use and Appliance Ownership in Ireland. ESRI WP277. February 2009

This paper examines household energy use and appliance ownership in Ireland. Logit regression analyses on a large micro-dataset reveal how household characteristics can help explain the ownership of energy using appliances. Using OLS regression models, we explore the factors affecting residential energy demand conditional on appliance ownership. Results suggest that the methods of space and water heating employed by a household are even more important than electrical appliances in explaining domestic energy usage. However, the stock of appliances must be included in such models so that results will not be biased. The methods employed in this paper can be easily adopted for studies of household energy use in other countries where household expenditure survey data are available

An Estimate of the Value of Lost Load for Ireland. ESRI WP357. October 2010

This paper estimates the value of short term lost load in the all island electricity market which includes the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. The value of lost load, also known as the value of security of electricity supply, is inferred using a production function approach. Detailed electricity use data for the Republic of Ireland allows us to estimate the value of lost load by time of day, time of week and type of user. We find that the value of lost load is highest in the residential sector in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Our results can be used to advise policy decisions in the case of supply outages and to encourage optimum supply security. In the context of this study short term is taken to be a matter of hours rather than days or weeks

The Distributional Effects of Value Added Tax in Ireland

In this paper we examine the distributional effects of Value Added Tax (VAT) in Ireland. Using the 2004/2005 Household Budget Survey, we assess the amount of VAT that households pay as a proportion of weekly disposable income. We measure VAT payments by equivalised income decile, households of different composition and different household sizes. The current system is highly regressive. With the use of a micro-simulation model we also estimate the impact of changing the VAT rate on certain groups of items and the associated change in revenue. We also consider how the imposition of a flat rate across all goods and services would affect households in different categories. The Irish Government has recently announced that it proposes to increase the standard rate of VAT to 22 per cent in 2013 and to 23 per cent in 2014. We examine the distributional implications of such increases. The general pattern of results shows that those hardest hit are households in the first income decile, households in rural areas, 6 person households and households containing a single adult with children.

Electrical Appliance Ownership and Usage in Ireland. ESRI WP421. February 2012

Past research into the determinants of appliance ownership has identified associations with socioeconomic characteristics of households. Few studies have examined the intensity with which different sorts of households use the appliances they have. This paper uses microdata to examine the factors influencing ownership and usage of electrical appliances in Irish households. We also consider the factors influencing the ownership of different cooker types, space and water heating systems and energy saving features. We find that appliance ownership and usage is related to the socio‐economic characteristics of the household’s chief income earner as well as household characteristics such as the type and age of accommodation, tenure and the number of bedrooms. The number of people living in the household has a positive association with both ownership and usage of electrical appliances. However, it does not increase ownership of energy saving features, with the exception of CFLs. The highest earning households are more likely to own electrical appliances but they do not necessarily use them more often, nor are they more likely to purchase energy saving features

Determinants of Vegetarianism and Partial Vegetarianism in the United Kingdom. ESRI WP360. November 2010

Vegetarianism is increasing in the western world. Anecdotally, this trend can be attributed to heightened health, environmental and animal welfare concerns. In this paper we investigate the factors associated with vegetarianism among adults and children in the UK. Using the 2008 Health Survey for England, we use a logit model to assess the relationship between vegetarianism and the socioeconomic and personal characteristics of the respondents. We also analyse the factors associated with varying levels of meat consumption using an ordered logit model. This paper adds to the existing literature as it is the first paper to estimate the determinants of vegetarianism using a large dataset containing individual level consumption data

The Distributional Effects of Value Added Tax in Ireland. ESRI WP366. December 2010

In this paper we examine the distributional effects of Value Added Tax (VAT) in Ireland. Using the 2004/2005 Household Budget Survey, we assess the amount of VAT that households pay as a proportion of weekly disposable income. We measure VAT payments by equivalised income decile, households of different composition and different household sizes. The current system is highly regressive. With the use of a micro-simulation model we also estimate the impact of changing the VAT rate on certain groups of items and the associated change in revenue. We also consider how the imposition of a flat rate across all goods and services would affect households in different categories. The Irish Government has recently announced that it proposes to increase the standard rate of VAT to 22% in 2013 and to 23% in 2014. We examine the distributional implications of such increases. The general pattern of results shows that those hardest hit are households in the first income decile, households in rural areas, 6 person households and households containing a single adult with children

An Analysis of Tax Forecasting Errors in Ireland

This paper examines the tax revenue forecasting performance of the Department of Finance over the period 1997-2014. While the general forecasting framework used reflects standard international practice, forecasting errors are relatively large by international standards. In almost all cases, we find no evidence of bias in the forecasts when considering the major tax heads over various forecast horizons. A decomposition of the forecast errors reveals substantial contributions from sources other than errors in forecasting the macroeconomic environment or in estimating the previous year’s revenue outturn. This suggests that a formal review of specific procedures and assumptions by the Department could yield further improvements in forecasting performance. An innovative exercise examining the routine use of judgement by the Department to adjust the outcome of forecasting equations indicates that this practice often improved the quality of the forecasts

The Potential for Segmentation of the Retail Market for Electricity in Ireland. ESRI WP433. April 2012

We estimate the gross margin that is earned from the supply of electricity to households in Ireland. Using half hourly electricity demand data, the system marginal price (also called the wholesale price) and the retail price of electricity, we analyse how the gross margin varies across customers with different characteristics. The wholesale price varies throughout the day, thus, the time at which electricity is used affects the gross margin. The main factor in determining gross margin, however, is demand. The highest gross margins are earned from supplying customers that have the following characteristics: being aged between 46 and 55, having a household income of at least €75,000 per annum, being self–employed, having a third level education, having a professional or managerial occupation, living in a household with 7 or more people, living in a detached house, having at least 5 bedrooms or being a mortgage holder. An OLS regression shows that gross margin is partly explained by the energy conservation measures which are present in a household, the number of household members, the number of bedrooms, income, age, occupation and accommodation type

The Cost of Natural Gas Shortages in Ireland. ESRI WP397. July 2010

This paper investigates the economic implications of disruptions of one to ninety days to the supply of natural gas in Ireland. We assess the impact of a hypothetical gas supply disruption in both winter and summer in 2008 (with observed market characteristics) and in 2020 (with projected market characteristics). The cost of a natural gas outage includes the cost of natural gas being unavailable for heating and other purposes in the industrial and commercial sectors, lost consumer surplus in the residential sector, the cost of lost electricity in all sectors and lost VAT on the sale of gas and electricity. Ireland produces much of its electricity from natural gas and the loss of this electricity accounts for the majority of the cost of a natural gas outage. Losing gas-fired electricity would cost 0.1 to 1.0 billion euro per day, depending on the time of week, the time of year, and rationing of electricity. Industry should be rationed before households to minimize economic losses, but current emergency protocols favour industry. If gas-fired electricity is unavailable for three months, the economic loss could be up to 80 billion euro, about half of Gross Domestic Product. Losing gas for heating too would add up to approximately 8 billion euro in economic losses. We also discuss some options to increase Ireland’s security of supply, and find that the cost is a small fraction of the avoided maximum damage