Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

Human cell types important for Hepatitis C Virus replication in vivo and in vitro. Old assertions and current evidence

Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) is a single stranded RNA virus which produces negative strand RNA as a replicative intermediate. We analyzed 75 RT-PCR studies that tested for negative strand HCV RNA in liver and other human tissues. 85% of the studies that investigated extrahepatic replication of HCV found one or more samples positive for replicative RNA. Studies using in situ hybridization, immunofluorescence, immunohistochemistry, and quasispecies analysis also demonstrated the presence of replicating HCV in various extrahepatic human tissues, and provide evidence that HCV replicates in macrophages, B cells, T cells, and other extrahepatic tissues. We also analyzed both short term and long term in vitro systems used to culture HCV. These systems vary in their purposes and methods, but long term culturing of HCV in B cells, T cells, and other cell types has been used to analyze replication. It is therefore now possible to study HIV-HCV co-infections and HCV replication in vitro

Viscosimètre à corps chutant permettant de procéder à des mesures de viscosité de liquides sous hautes pressions

The instrument described is a « guided falling body » viscosimeter used for high pressure viscosity measurements. Data may be obtained up to 4 000 bars in the temperature range — 10 to + 200 °C. This present paper gives a general description of the instrument design and capabilities.L'appareil décrit est du type viscosimètre « à corps chutant guidé » et est destiné à l'étude des liquides sous pression. Les mesures peuvent être effectuées jusqu'à 4 000 bars dans l'intervalle de températures (- 10, + 200 °C). Cette publication a pour objet de présenter les différentes parties de cet appareillage, ses caractéristiques et d'analyser ses performances

Persistence of Hepatitis C Virus during and after Otherwise Clinically Successful Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis C with Standard Pegylated Interferon α-2b and Ribavirin Therapy

Resolution of chronic hepatitis C is considered when serum HCV RNA becomes repeatedly undetectable and liver enzymes normalize. However, long-term persistence of HCV following therapy with pegylated interferon-α/ribavirin (PegIFN/R) was reported when more sensitive assays and testing of serial plasma, lymphoid cells (PBMC) and/or liver biopsies was applied. Our aim was to reassess plasma and PBMCs collected during and after standard PegIFN/R therapy from individuals who became HCV RNA nonreactive by clinical testing. Of particular interest was to determine if HCV genome and its replication remain detectable during ongoing treatment with PegIFN/R when evaluated by more sensitive detection approaches. Plasma acquired before (n = 11), during (n = 25) and up to 12–88 weeks post-treatment (n = 20) from 9 patients and PBMC (n = 23) from 3 of them were reanalyzed for HCV RNA with sensitivity <2 IU/mL. Clone sequencing of the HCV 5′-untranslated region from plasma and PBMCs was done in 2 patients. HCV RNA was detected in 17/25 (68%) plasma and 8/10 (80%) PBMC samples collected from 8 of 9 patients during therapy, although only 5.4% plasma samples were positive by clinical assays. Among post-treatment HCV RNA-negative plasma samples, 9 of 20 (45.3%) were HCV reactive for up to 59 weeks post-treatment. Molecularly evident replication was found in 6/12 (50%) among PBMC reactive for virus RNA positive strand collected during or after treatment. Pre-treatment point mutations persisted in plasma and/or PBMC throughout therapy and follow-up. Therefore, HCV is not completely cleared during ongoing administration of PegIFN/R otherwise capable of ceasing progression of CHC and virus commonly persists at levels not detectable by the current clinical testing. The findings suggest the need for continued evaluation even after patients achieve undetectable HCV RNA post-treatment