A cyclo-stationary complex multichannel wiener filter for the prediction of wind speed and direction

This paper develops a linear predictor for application to wind speed and direction forecasting in time and across different sites. The wind speed and direction are modelled via the magnitude and phase of a complex-valued time-series. A multichannel adaptive filter is set to predict this signal, based on its past values and the spatio-temporal correlation between wind signals measured at numerous geographical locations. The time-varying nature of the underlying system and the annual cycle of seasons motivates the development of a cyclo-stationary Wiener filter, which is tested on hourly mean wind speed and direction data from 13 weather stations across the UK, and shown to provide an improvement over both stationary Wiener filtering and a recent auto-regressive approach

Unlooping the Loop

While watching the Big 12 men’s basketball semi-finals on television a few weeks ago, I was gratified to see clips of downtown Kansas City, Missouri, filled with people. Amid the busy streets and shiny, occupied buildings, I could just make out the illuminated guardrail panels on a series of bridge rehabilitation projects completed within the past five years

The Role of Childhood Participation in Cultural Activities in the Promotion of Pro-Social Behaviours in Later Life

Cultural organisations often serve as guardians of cultural heritage and, as such, cultural sustainability depends on their ongoing vitality. Many organisations in the cultural sector are, however, presently experiencing intense financial pressures. With their traditional sources of funding being progressively cut off, such organisations are focusing increasingly on monetary donations and the volunteering of time on the part of the general public to help plug the financial gap. Promoting and managing such pro-social behaviours can, however, be costly activities in themselves, so it is critical for cultural organisations to be able to target those segments of the public with the greatest propensity to give. This study sets out to address that need. The findings indicate that individuals who were involved in cultural activities as children are statistically more likely to volunteer their time in later life, not only with cultural organisations but also with good causes in general. In certain circumstances, this is also true of donating money. The cultural organisations benefiting from these pro-social behaviours need not be those with which the individual was involved in their childhood; nor need they be associated with the same form of culture. Importantly, continuous involvement in an activity from childhood into adulthood is not a necessary pre-condition for pro-social behaviour in later life

Kernel methods for short-term spatio-temporal wind prediction

Two nonlinear methods for producing short-term spatio-temporal wind speed forecast are presented. From the relatively new class of kernel methods, a kernel least mean squares algorithm and kernel recursive least squares algorithm are introduced and used to produce 1 to 6 hour-ahead predictions of wind speed at six locations in the Netherlands. The performance of the proposed methods are compared to their linear equivalents, as well as the autoregressive, vector autoregressive and persistence time series models. The kernel recursive least squares algorithm is shown to offer significant improvement over all benchmarks, particularly for longer forecast horizons. Both proposed algorithms exhibit desirable numerical properties and are ripe for further development

The business of farm crime:Evaluating trust in the police and reporting of offences

Annual estimates of the total cost of farm crime to the UK economy amount to the region of £45 m (NFU in NFU Rural Crime Report 2018. https://www.nfumutual.co.uk/news-and-stories/rural-crime-report-2018/, 2018). The purpose of this study was to assess the extent, effects and responses to farm crime from key stakeholders, principally the police and farming population. Survey responses were collected from farmers (n = 96) in rural Wales. Key findings suggest that the main categories of farm crime including machinery and livestock theft were similar to national patterns. Perceptions of organised crime groups from outside the local area being responsible for criminal activity were also prevalent. Satisfaction and trust in the police was generally healthy, despite awareness that the investigation and prosecution of farm and/or rural crime was often not being adequately resourced. The implications of this research propose that a broad lack of police training/experience, insight into farming issues generally, and wider organisational resource commitment, all hinder effective policing of farm business crime.PostprintPeer reviewe

Farm diversification, entrepreneurship and technology adoption:Analysis of upland farmers in Wales

Farm businesses face increasing challenges in the face of policy reform which envisages multifunctional rural economies with objectives which span the environmental, the social as well as the production of food. This leads to uncertainties and ambiguities in the way in which farms respond to incentives and pressures to become entrepreneurial, to diversify, to become more efficient at food production and to adopt new technology. This paper examines these tensions in the context of upland agricultural business in rural Wales. Qualitative and quantitative results support a conclusion of significant heterogeneity in farm response, and highlight tensions between maintaining a focus towards current on-farm activity or pursuing entrepreneurial diversification, as well as differing levels of technology adoption in support of these income streams. Supported by a descriptive cluster analysis based on survey data, the paper proposes a new conceptual categorisation of entrepreneurial strategy, distinguished on the basis of attitudes towards on- and off-farm income generation and on stated stance towards current and future policy grant streams. The paper discusses some of the factors that may determine how particular farmers and farming businesses lie within this categorisation