Determining Default Probabilities for FSA Direct Loans

A binomial logit model was used to analyze relationships between financial characteristics and loan performance for FSA direct borrowers receiving direct FO or OL loans in fiscal 2005. Not surprisingly, the results indicate a strong and direct relationship between many key financial variables and probability of default. Production specialization, however, was indicated to have just as important an impact on probability of default as many financial variables. Other strong indicators included farm size, membership in a targeted group, and the ability to obtain credit from commercial lenders.FSA credit programs, loan defaults, credit risk models, risk rating, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics,

The Competitiveness of Farm Credit Markets in a Deregulated Environment

Despite the proliferation of banking offices occurring since banking deregulation, about one-third of all counties in the US were still considered to have little competition with respect to agricultural credit. Counties considered less competitive were located in regions where farming is less prevalent; Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Appalachia, and Southeast. There was no evidence that farm interest rates charged by commercial banks were higher regions with less competition. Higher FCS interest rates in counties with less competitive suggested that full-time commercial-size farms may be disadvantaged by a lack of credit market competition.Agricultural Finance,

Explaining Regional Demand for Federal Farm Credit Programs: An Ordinal Probit Approach

Demand for federally subsidized farm credit varies regionally, with farm borrowers in some regions very dependent on USDA credit programs. Counties are grouped based on their level of demand for Farm Service Agency (FSA) direct farm ownership (FO) and farm operating loans (OL). Ordinal probit techniques are applied to analyze factors influencing county-level variation in the use of the loan programs. Results suggest that counties with the highest level of demand are more likely to have a Farm Credit System branch office, are more likely to be dependent on farming, have a greater share of farms owing debt, and have fewer guaranteed FSA borrowers and racial and ethnic minorities.Agricultural Finance, Demand and Price Analysis,

DOES FCS ASSOCIATION SIZE AFFECT CREDIT AVAILABILITY?

An analysis of the characteristics of farm businesses by size of FCS direct lending association suggests that further consolidation of FCS lending should have limited negative impacts on credit availability. Commercial-sized farm businesses with FCS real estate debt appeared similar to those who obtained credit from competing lenders, but smaller associations and those with fewer stockholders per branch appeared to serve larger and more wealthy commercial-sized farms.credit availability, direct lending association, Agricultural Finance,

Detection of Pulsed X-ray Emission from PSR B1706-44

We report the first detection of pulsed X-ray emission from the young, energetic radio and Gamma-ray pulsar PSR B1706-44. We find a periodic signal at a frequency of f = 9.7588088 +/- 0.0000026 Hz (at epoch 51585.34104 MJD), consistent with the radio ephemeris, using data obtained with the High Resolution Camera on-board the Chandra X-ray Observatory}. The probability that this detection is a chance occurrence is 3.5E-5 as judged by the Rayleigh test. The folded light curve has a broad, single-peaked profile with a pulsed fraction of 23% +/- 6%. This result is consistent the ROSAT PSPC upper limit of < 18% after allowing for the ability of Chandra to resolve the pulsar from a surrounding synchrotron nebula. We also fitted Chandra spectroscopic data on PSR B1706-44, which require at least two components, e.g., a blackbody of temperature T(infinity) between 1.51E6 K and 1.83E6 K and a power-law of Gamma = 2.0 +/- 0.5. The blackbody radius at the nominal 2.5 kpc distance is only R(infinity) = 3.6 +/- 0.9 km, indicating either a hot region on a cooler surface, or the need for a realistic atmosphere model that would allow a lower temperature and larger area. Because the power-law and blackbody spectra each contribute more than 23% of the observed flux, it is not possible to decide which component is responsible for the modulation in the spectrally unresolved light curve.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, Latex, emulateapj. Published version. Includes an updated radio ephemeris and presents the absolute radio/X-ray phase alignmen

High Precision Astrometric Millimeter VLBI Using a New Method for Atmospheric Calibration

We describe a new method which achieves high precision Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) astrometry in observations at millimeter wavelengths. It combines fast frequency-switching observations, to correct for the dominant non-dispersive tropospheric fluctuations, with slow source-switching observations, for the remaining ionospheric dispersive terms. We call this method Source-Frequency Phase Referencing. Provided that the switching cycles match the properties of the propagation media, one can recover the source astrometry. We present an analytic description of the two-step calibration strategy, along with an error analysis to characterize its performance. Also, we provide observational demonstrations of a successful application with observations using the Very Long Baseline Array at 86 GHz of the pairs of sources 3C274 & 3C273 and 1308+326 & 1308+328, under various conditions. We conclude that this method is widely applicable to millimeter VLBI observations of many target sources, and unique in providing bona-fide astrometrically registered images and high precision relative astrometric measurements in mm-VLBI using existing and newly built instruments.Comment: Astronomical Journal, accepted for publicatio

Relative astrometry of the J=1-0, v=1 and v=2 SiO masers towards R Leonis Minoris using VERA

Oxygen-rich Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) stars are intense emitters of SiO and H$_2$O maser lines at 43 (J=1-0, v=1 and 2) and 22 GHz, respectively. VLBI observations of the maser emission provides a unique tool to sample the innermost layers of the circumstellar envelopes in AGB stars. Nevertheless, the difficulties in achieving astrometrically aligned v=1 and v=2 SiO maser maps have traditionally prevented a unique interpretation of the observations in terms of physical underlying conditions, which depend on the nature of the SiO pumping mechanism. We have carried out observations of the SiO and H$_2$O maser emission towards RLMi, using the astrometric capabilities of VERA. Due to the too-weak emission of the reference calibrator we had to develop a special method to accurately relate the coordinates for both transitions. We present relative astrometrically aligned v=1 and v=2 J=1-0 SiO maser maps, at multiple epochs, and discuss the astrophysical results. The incorporation of astrometric information into the maps of SiO masers challenges the weak points in the current theoretical models, which will need further refinements to address the observations results.Comment: 17 pages, 8 figure