Dangerous connections: on binding site models of infectious disease dynamics

We formulate models for the spread of infection on networks that are amenable to analysis in the large population limit. We distinguish three different levels: (1) binding sites, (2) individuals, and (3) the population. In the tradition of Physiologically Structured Population Models, the formulation starts on the individual level. Influences from the `outside world' on an individual are captured by environmental variables. These environmental variables are population level quantities. A key characteristic of the network models is that individuals can be decomposed into a number of conditionally independent components: each individual has a fixed number of `binding sites' for partners. The Markov chain dynamics of binding sites are described by only a few equations. In particular, individual-level probabilities are obtained from binding-site-level probabilities by combinatorics while population-level quantities are obtained by averaging over individuals in the population. Thus we are able to characterize population-level epidemiological quantities, such as $R_0$, $r$, the final size, and the endemic equilibrium, in terms of the corresponding variables

Mean field at distance one

To be able to understand how infectious diseases spread on networks, it is important to understand the network structure itself in the absence of infection. In this text we consider dynamic network models that are inspired by the (static) configuration network. The networks are described by population-level averages such as the fraction of the population with $k$ partners, $k=0,1,2,\ldots$ This means that the bookkeeping contains information about individuals and their partners, but no information about partners of partners. Can we average over the population to obtain information about partners of partners? The answer is `it depends', and this is where the mean field at distance one assumption comes into play. In this text we explain that, yes, we may average over the population (in the right way) in the static network. Moreover, we provide evidence in support of a positive answer for the network model that is dynamic due to partnership changes. If, however, we additionally allow for demographic changes, dependencies between partners arise. In earlier work we used the slogan `mean field at distance one' as a justification of simply ignoring the dependencies. Here we discuss the subtleties that come with the mean field at distance one assumption, especially when demography is involved. Particular attention is given to the accuracy of the approximation in the setting with demography. Next, the mean field at distance one assumption is discussed in the context of an infection superimposed on the network. We end with the conjecture that an extension of the bookkeeping leads to an exact description of the network structure.Comment: revised versio

Structured populations with distributed recruitment: from PDE to delay formulation

In this work first we consider a physiologically structured population model with a distributed recruitment process. That is, our model allows newly recruited individuals to enter the population at all possible individual states, in principle. The model can be naturally formulated as a first order partial integro-differential equation, and it has been studied extensively. In particular, it is well-posed on the biologically relevant state space of Lebesgue integrable functions. We also formulate a delayed integral equation (renewal equation) for the distributed birth rate of the population. We aim to illustrate the connection between the partial integro-differential and the delayed integral equation formulation of the model utilising a recent spectral theoretic result. In particular, we consider the equivalence of the steady state problems in the two different formulations, which then leads us to characterise irreducibility of the semigroup governing the linear partial integro-differential equation. Furthermore, using the method of characteristics, we investigate the connection between the time dependent problems. In particular, we prove that any (non-negative) solution of the delayed integral equation determines a (non-negative) solution of the partial differential equation and vice versa. The results obtained for the particular distributed states at birth model then lead us to present some very general results, which establish the equivalence between a general class of partial differential and delay equation, modelling physiologically structured populations.Comment: 28 pages, to appear in Mathematical Methods in the Applied Science