Consumption Responses to In-Kind Transfers: Evidence from the Introduction of the Food Stamp Program

Economists have strong theoretical predictions about how in-kind transfer programs -- such as providing vouchers for food -- impact consumption. Despite the prominence of the theory, there has been little empirical work documenting actual responses to in-kind transfers. In this work, we leverage previously underutilized variation in the date of the county-level original implementation of the Food Stamp Program in the 1960s and early 1970s. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we employ difference-in-difference methods to estimate the impact of program availability on food spending, labor supply and family income. Consistent with theoretical predictions, we find that the introduction of food stamps leads to a decrease in out of pocket food spending, an increase in overall food expenditures, and a decrease (although insignificant) in the propensity to take meals out. The results are quite precisely estimated for total food spending, with less precision in estimating the impacts on out of pocket food costs. We find evidence of small work disincentive impacts in the PSID, which is confirmed with an analysis of the 1960, 1970 and 1980 Census.

SNAP and Food Consumption

In this paper we describe the relationship between SNAP and food consumption. We first present the neoclassical framework for analyzing in-kind transfers, which unambiguously predicts that SNAP will increase food consumption, and then describe the SNAP benefit formula. We then present new evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey on food spending patterns among households overall, SNAP recipients, and other subgroups of interest. We find that a substantial fraction of SNAP-eligible households spend an amount that is above the program’s needs standard. We also show that the relationship between family size and food spending is steeper than the slope of the SNAP needs parameter, and that large families are more likely to spend less on food than the needs standard amount. By program design, actual benefit levels are smaller than the needs standards. We find that most families spend more on food than their predicted benefit allotment, and are therefore infra-marginal and are predicted to treat their benefits like cash according to the neoclassical model

Inside the War on Poverty: The Impact of Food Stamps on Birth Outcomes

This paper evaluates the health impact of a signature initiative of the War on Poverty: the roll out of the modern Food Stamp Program (FSP) during the 1960s and early 1970s. Using variation in the month the FSP began operating in each U.S. county, we find that pregnancies exposed to the FSP three months prior to birth yielded deliveries with increased birth weight, with the largest gains at the lowest birth weights. These impacts are evident with difference-in-difference models and event study analyses. Estimated impacts are robust to inclusion of county fixed effects, time fixed effects, measures of other federal transfer spending, state by year fixed effects, and county-specific linear time trends. We also find that the FSP rollout leads to small, but statistically insignificant, improvements in neonatal infant mortality. We conclude that the sizeable increase in income from Food Stamp benefits improved birth outcomes for both whites and African Americans, with larger impacts for births to African American mothers.

Beyond Income: What Else Predicts Very Low Food Security among Children?

We examine characteristics and correlates of households in the United States that are most likely to have children at risk of inadequate nutrition – those that report very low food security (VLFS) among their children. Using 11 years of the Current Population Survey, plus data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and American Time Use Survey, we describe these households in great detail with the goal of trying to understand how these households differ from households without such severe food insecurity. While household income certainly plays an important role in determining VLFS among children, we find that even after flexibly controlling for income-to-poverty rates some household characteristics and patterns of program participation have important additional explanatory power. Finally, our examination of the NHANES and ATUS data suggests an important role for both mental and physical health in determining the food security status of children

New Evidence on Why Children\u27s Food Security Varies Across Households with Similar Incomes

This project examines why very low food security status among children is different across households with very similar measured resources. Controlling for measures of income-to-needs, we examine whether elements in the!environment, household characteristics, or behaviors are systematically correlated with VLFS among children. We use different measures of income-to-needs, including those averaged across years to capture “permanent” income (or to average out measurement error) and measures that include income after taxes and transfers. Our analysis uses the Current Population Survey (across many years, matched December to March), the American Time Use Survey (matched to the December CPS), the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (1999-2010), and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We find that, no matter how we control for income-to-needs, certain characteristics appear to be systematically correlated with VLFS among children. In particular, mental and physical disabilities of the household head are strongly correlated with!VLFS among children. The presence of teenage children, holding other aspects of household size and composition constant, predict VLFS among children,suggesting that larger children require more food. Finally, participating in transfer programs is correlated with VLFS among children, suggesting that these households are in the “system.” These patterns suggest pathways for future research and future policy actions to address VLFS among children

Preferred citation

org/Publications/DP2014-03.pdf. Author correspondenc

Risk of Food Insecurity in the U.S. Military: Definitions, Distributions, and Solutions

Prepared for: OPNAV Nl7 - Navy Culture and Force Resilience Office. This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). NRP Project TD: NRP-23-N095-A.We use data from the Current Population Survey to identify factors associated with food insecurity in the civilian setting, then use a machine learning model to predict rates of food insecurity using the same characteristics based on administrative pay and personnel records from the Department of Defense. We next wargame potential policy solutions, including the new Basic Needs Allowance (BNA) to assess how various policies might change the risk of food insecurity. Policies in the prediction wargame change the threshold for eligibility for the BNA, add additional income based on number of dependents, increase spouse employment, and change SNAP eligibility. There are 6 major takeaways from this research: Takeaway 1: Having a larger family size and if the head of house is a woman, divorced, Black, or Hispanic are associated with a higher probability of being food insecure (risk factors). Takeaway 2: Being from a military family, being married, having more education, and more income are associated with a lower probability of being food insecure (protective factors). Takeaway 3: Few service members have income levels at or below BNA eligibility criteria. Takeaway 4: The FY2023 NDAA's method of eligibility for the BNA will not significantly reduce military food insecurity. Takeaway 5: We estimate that 6.9% of the military is likely to be food insecure. Takeaway 6: Moderate increases in benefits or income will not eliminate food insecurity. We take our results as an indication that food insecurity is a multi-faceted issue that will not be solved with money alone. Military members-and their families-should not face food insecurity. The current BNA will not change much about current rates of food insecurity. Indeed, moderate tweaks to pay are unlikely to have a meaningful effect on rates of food insecurity. Instead, a more comprehensive approach to food insecurity is needed.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098).OPNAV N17 - Navy Culture and Force Resilience Offic