Prepared for: OPNAV Nl7 - Navy Culture and Force Resilience Office. This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098).
NRP Project TD: NRP-23-N095-A.We use data from the Current Population Survey to identify factors associated with food insecurity in the civilian setting, then use a machine learning model to predict rates of food insecurity using the same characteristics based on administrative pay and personnel records from the Department of Defense. We next wargame potential policy solutions, including the new Basic Needs Allowance (BNA) to assess how various policies might change the risk of food insecurity. Policies in the prediction wargame change the threshold for eligibility for the BNA, add additional income based on number of dependents, increase spouse employment, and change SNAP eligibility. There are 6 major takeaways from this research:
Takeaway 1: Having a larger family size and if the head of house is a woman, divorced, Black, or Hispanic are associated with a higher probability of being food insecure (risk factors).
Takeaway 2: Being from a military family, being married, having more education, and more income are associated with a lower probability of being food insecure (protective factors).
Takeaway 3: Few service members have income levels at or below BNA eligibility criteria.
Takeaway 4: The FY2023 NDAA's method of eligibility for the BNA will not significantly reduce military food insecurity. Takeaway 5: We estimate that 6.9% of the military is likely to be food insecure.
Takeaway 6: Moderate increases in benefits or income will not eliminate food insecurity.
We take our results as an indication that food insecurity is a multi-faceted issue that will not be solved with money alone. Military members-and their families-should not face food insecurity. The current BNA will not change much about current rates of food insecurity. Indeed, moderate tweaks to pay are unlikely to have a meaningful effect on rates of food insecurity. Instead, a more comprehensive approach to food insecurity is needed.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098).OPNAV N17 - Navy Culture and Force Resilience Offic
