Revisiting Sanctions on Russia and Counter-Sanctions on the EU: The economic impact three years later. CEPS Commentary, 13 July 2017

On June 28th, the European Council took a decision to prolong the economic sanctions imposed on Russia until 31 January 2018. These sanctions: 1) limit access to EU capital markets for major Russian state-owned financial institutions and energy and defence companies, 2) ban both the export and import of arms, 3) ban the export of dual-use goods for military use to Russia and 4) curtail Russia’s access to certain sensitive technologies and services that can be used for oil production and exploration.[1

Paving the way for future labour migration: A Belgian-Tunisian Skills Mobility Partnership. CEPS Policy Insight 28 Sep 2020.

Since September 2017, the European Commission has been encouraging the use of new approaches to broaden labour migration to the EU. In response to this call, several pilots for skill mobility partnerships are being tested by partner countries with, for example, different target groups (e.g. recent graduates or young professionals), types of contract (e.g. internship or work) or duration. The IOM skills mobility partnership between Belgium and Tunisia highlights the importance of multidimensional cooperation between different stakeholders from both countries (e.g. immigration office, public employment services, employers’ associations) throughout the implementation of the project (e.g. in assessing labour market needs, streamlining procedures, selecting candidates). Throughout this pilot project, IOM improved its understanding of the private sector’s interest in international hiring and the difficulties faced by companies with this issue, while companies became acquainted with different aspects of international labour migration such as ethical recruitment practices and skills recognition. All participants found a job after their internship in Belgium, the great majority back in Tunisia and some in a subsidiary of the Belgian host company. The project therefore achieved its main objectives of i) providing concrete opportunities for skills mobility to third country nationals while ensuring skills return, ii) meeting the labour market needs in terms of skills, and iii) supporting the private sector’s interest in international hiring. Foreign investment on the part of some of the Belgian host companies was but one positive spillover from this project

Transatlantic Divergences in Globalisation and the China Factor. CEPS Policy Insight No 2017/19, May 2017

The EU and the United States are following divergent paths with regard to their respective trade policies. While the new administration of the United States has made some notably strong statements against further trade liberalisation, the EU continues to favour responsible globalisation. The EU has recently signed a series of free trade agreements (FTAs) as well as plurilateral agreements with its partners (especially, but not only, in East Asia). Consequently, the EU is strengthening its status as a global leader in the debate on economic openness. Conversely, the US has interrupted major negotiations with its trading partners and has renounced trade agreements, such as TPP and TTIP (at least for the time being). This paper provides some empirical economic and social guidance behind the recent policy divergence on globalisation between the US and the EU in general and vis-à-vis China in particular

Can regular replace irregular migration across the Mediterranean? CEPS Mercator Dialogue on Asylum and Migration (MEDAM), 27 June 2019

Irregular migration from Africa across the Mediterranean to the EU has become a central policy issue. While the establishment of a Libyan SAR zone and of a Libyan coast guard has lowered the numbers crossing the Mediterranean since mid-2017, there are strong concerns about the sustainability of the current approach and its reliability given the severe political instability in Libya. Due to this state of affairs, increasing legal access to the EU – for study and work purposes – has re-appeared on the European agenda as one potential way to reduce irregular crossing in the future. This comes at a time where legal access to the EU labour markets for African citizens has been steadily reduced. Moreover, actions aimed at streamlining access to existing pathways for legal migration, or opening new ones, can be used as lever in improving cooperation in migration management with countries of origin when it comes to returns and readmissions. We review the evidence bearing on to what extent increasing legal access via labour migration is effective in reducing irregular migration. While our focus is on irregular crossings of the Mediterranean, we draw on evidence from different world regions. We conclude that increasing legal pathways for migration from Africa to Europe, in itself, will have only a limited effect on the number of people trying to cross irregularly. Substitution can take place only if expansion of legal pathways – tailored to labour market needs and migrant profiles – is envisaged in a comprehensive policy mix including strong enforcement of migration legislation (i.e. control of employers at destination together with border control) and streamlining of recruitment procedures

Can regular replace irregular migration across the Mediterranean? Project Report. CEPS MEDAM Mercator Dialogue on Asylum and Migration, June 2019

Irregular migration from Africa across the Mediterranean to the EU has become a central policy issue. While the establishment of a Libyan SAR zone and of a Libyan coast guard has lowered the numbers crossing the Mediterranean since mid-2017, there are strong concerns about the sustainability of the current approach and its reliability given the severe political instability in Libya. Due to this state of affairs, increasing legal access to the EU – for study and work purposes – has re-appeared on the European agenda as one potential way to reduce irregular crossing in the future. This comes at a time where legal access to the EU labour markets for African citizens has been steadily reduced. Moreover, actions aimed at streamlining access to existing pathways for legal migration, or opening new ones, can be used as lever in improving cooperation in migration management with countries of origin when it comes to returns and readmissions. We review the evidence bearing on to what extent increasing legal access via labour migration is effective in reducing irregular migration. While our focus is on irregular crossings of the Mediterranean, we draw on evidence from different world regions. We conclude that increasing legal pathways for migration from Africa to Europe, in itself, will have only a limited effect on the number of people trying to cross irregularly. Substitution can take place only if expansion of legal pathways – tailored to labour market needs and migrant profiles – is envisaged in a comprehensive policy mix including strong enforcement of migration legislation (i.e. control of employers at destination together with border control) and streamlining of recruitment procedures

The impact of refugees on the labour market: a big splash in a small pond? CEPS Working Document No 2018/07, October 2018

What impact will recently arrived refugees have on the labour markets of receiving European countries? As a contribution to the debate, this paper looks at the composition of recent refugee inflows and reviews the relevant characteristics of EU labour markets. Even in the most affected member states, the number of refugees recognised between 2014 and 2017 is small relative to the total population. The potential impact on aggregate wages or on the unemployment rate is therefore not expected to be economically significant. However, many of the recent refugee cohorts in these member states were young low-skilled men. The 2014-17 inflow is thus sizeable relative to the population of this specific group. The authors of this paper highlight two potential challenges associated with such a concentrated inflow. First, since young low-skilled men are already an economically vulnerable group, higher competition for jobs can further increase this vulnerability and fuel negative (antiimmigrant) sentiment. Second, the labour market sectors relevant for many refugees already face uncertain labour demand due to import competition and continuing technological change. The authors find that this challenges the medium- and long-term prospects for the integration of refugees. It also calls for attention to be paid to training and upgrading their skills. At the same time, efforts to integrate newcomers should go hand in hand with the better economic inclusion of other vulnerable population groups

An EU-Africa partnership scheme for human capital formation and skill mobility. CEPS Project Report. June 2019

Proper management of migration across the Mediterranean Sea requires close cooperation between the EU and African countries. Cooperation is difficult because core interests diverge. EU countries are focused on curbing irregular migration; African countries are primarily interested in economic development, with migration as one of the opportunities. At the moment, the EU lacks a credible long-term programme to engage African countries on migration issues. We propose an ambitious EU-Africa partnership scheme for human capital formation and skill mobility that can be embedded into the current framework for EU-Africa dialogue. The scheme comprises three elements: First, extensive vocational training programmes would be set up in African countries, funded by the EU or individual member states, to train participants according to labour market needs in both the EU and African countries. Second, EU member states would issue a substantial number of work permits, offering programme graduates a good chance of employment in the EU while allowing member states to manage the inflow of workers according to their needs. Third, the private sector would be actively involved in planning and implementing vocational training programmes to ensure that graduates are employable in the EU and to facilitate job search and hiring across the Mediterranean. The scheme fits in the current legal framework for labour migration into the EU, and should be seen as one element in building a comprehensive forward-looking partnership with Africa for the benefit of all stakeholders involved in both origin and destination countries

An Assessment of the Economic Impact of Brexit on the EU27. 22 March 2017

This paper, managed by the Policy Department on Economic and Scientific Policies for the Committee on Internal Market and Consumer Protection, assesses the likely impact of Brexit on EU27, together with some scenarios for the terms of the UK’s secession. For the EU 27, the losses are found to be virtually insignificant, and hardly noticed in the aggregate. By contrast, for the UK, the losses could be highly significant, over ten times greater as a share of GDP. Impacts on various Member States – in particular Ireland – and sectors in the EU27 could be more pronounced

Income Convergence in the EU: A tale of two speeds. CEPS Commentary, 9 January 2018

With this contribution, CEPS is launching a new series of short pieces that aim to examine and shed light on the implications and features of economic and social convergence in the EU