Trade booms, trade busts and trade costs

What has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past and present? We derive a micro-founded measure of trade frictions from leading trade theories and use it to gauge the importance of bilateral trade costs in determining international trade flows. We construct a new balanced sample of bilateral trade flows for 130 country pairs across the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania for the period from 1870 to 2000 and demonstrate an overriding role for declining trade costs in the pre-World War I trade boom. In contrast, for the post-World War II trade boom we identify changes in output as the dominant force. Finally, the entirety of the interwar trade bust is explained by increases in trade costs

Combined VHF Dopplar radar and airborne (CV-990) measurements of atmospheric winds on the mesoscale

Hourly measurements of wind speed and direction obtained using two wind profiling Doppler radars during two prolonged jet stream occurrences over western Pennsylvania were analyzed. In particular, the time-variant characteristics of derived shear profiles were examined. To prevent a potential loss of structural detail and retain statistical significance, data from both radars were stratified into categories based on the location data from the Penn State radar were also compared to data from Pittsburgh radiosondes. Profiler data dropouts were studied in an attempt to determine possible reasons for the apparently reduced performance of profiling radars operating beneath a jet stream. Temperature profiles for the radar site were obtained using an interpolated temperature and dewpoint temperature sounding procedure developed at Penn State. The combination of measured wind and interpolated temperature profiles allowed Richardson number profiles to be generated for the profiler sounding volume. Both Richardson number and wind shear statistics were then examined along with pilot reports of turbulence in the vicinity of the profiler

Multi-W Events at LHC from a Warped Extra Dimension with Custodial Symmetry

Randall-Sundrum models based on SU(2)_L * SU(2)_R with custodial symmetry are compelling frameworks for building alternative models of electroweak symmetry breaking. A particular feature of these models is the likely presence of light Kaluza-Klein fermions related to the right-handed top quark. These can be as light as a few hundred GeV and still compatible with EW precision constraints. In this article, we study the detectability of four-W final states at the LHC, which arise from the pair-production and tW decay of light Kaluza-Klein bottom quarks as well as light Kaluza-Klein quarks carrying electric charge 5/3.Comment: 17 pages, 26 figure

Trade costs in the first wave of Globalization

What drives globalization today and in the past? We employ a new micro-founded measure of bilateral trade costs based on a standard model of trade in differentiated goods to address this question. These trade costs gauge the difference between observed bilateral trade and frictionless trade. They comprise tariffs, transportation costs and all other factors that impede international trade but which are inherently difficult to observe. Trade costs fell on average by ten to Þfteen percent between 1870 and 1913. We also use this measure to decompose the growth of global trade over that period and Þnd that roughly 44 percent of the global trade boom can be explained by reductions in trade costs; the remaining 56 percent is attributable to economic expansion

Investigating spatio-temporal variability of hydrological components in the Canadian Rockies (Alberta)

This thesis addresses two questions related to the broad topic of mountain hydrology: 1) How do interannual hydrological balancee and pathway components vary in complex temperate high mountain environments at various spatio-temporal scales? 2) a) Is it possible, using dedicated hydrological models, for significant errors in simulated runoff components despite good hydrograph recreations (i.e. right results for wrong reasons)? b) If so, what kinds of errors are encountered? The first question was addressed by undertaking a hydrological tracer and hydrometric study at three basin scales (Banff —2200 km2, Lake Louise —400 km2 and the headwaters —30 km2) within the Bow Valley of the Canadian Rockies from 1996 to 1999. To address question two, hydrometeorological basin properties learned from question one were used to perform two runs of the University of British Columbia watershed model for the Bow River at Banff during hydrological years 1996-1999. Simulations were evaluated using a conceptual 5\u2780 model of the hydrological balance. Seasonal geochemical patterns in runoff were similar for all basins, indicating that interannual hydrometeorological conditions play the dominant role in controlling hydrological contributions to runoff. In both seasonal baseflow and event runoff from all basins, snow was the dominant component with rainfall contributing little, even during large rainfall events. Higher rainfall contributions were evident in the runoff from glacierised basins, suggesting that impervious surfaces lead to rapid runoff but in non-glacierised basins a large volume of rainwater is probably lost to evapotranspiration. In addition, it was considered that rainfall may have appeared to be absent from the hydrograph during the large rainfall event studied as it may have shunted out older snowmelt from karst storage in the headwaters, thus masking the actual rainfall signature. For all model runs it was found that the snowmelt component of the hydrological balance was underestimated. This was generally compensated for by an overestimation of rain inputs. From the findings that rainfall was generally a minor component of annual runoff despite hydrometric observations (and phenomenological intuition) that might indicate otherwise, it was concluded that there may be a conceptual misunderstanding of the importance of rainfall contributions to runoff in glacierised high mountain basins. Rainfall occurs during summer months and is the most susceptible flow component to evaporative loss. However, rain, snow and ice are not discriminated in many model evaporation routines, and this could lead to overestimations of rainfall in the balance. In addition, orographic enhancement of precipitation varies seasonally but this is often not accounted for in models. Using a single value to represent annual conditions likely leads to overestimations of rainfall at high elevations. Automated optimisation of a model containing such process-based conceptual flaws will ultimately force the model to overestimate certain parameters (rainfall in this case) and compensate with an underestimation of hydrologically more important components (namely snow)

Competing narratives : the interplay between racial and ethno-religious identity among Ashkenazi Jewish undergraduate anti-racist peer educators.

This study examined the various ways in which Ashkenazi Jewish undergraduate anti-racism peer educators understood and used their Jewish identity in their work with non-Jewish people of color and white Christians. Ashkenazi Jews, who are Jews of Central European heritage, often find themselves questioning the racial space they occupy. The ways in which students of Ashkenazi Jewish identification compare or contrast their historical and current social position with that of communities of color can either facilitate or disrupt their efforts to be effective anti-racist educators. Fifteen Ashkenazi Jews who are peer facilitators in a nationally-recognized social justice program at a university in the Midwest were interviewed. Three data gathering techniques were utilized: demographic intake form, individual interview, and focus group interview. Participants articulated a complex understanding of the position of Ashkenazi Jews in U.S.-based systems of ethnicity, religion, race and class. Based on these systems, the students claimed that Jews are both insiders and outsiders in American society, targeted and privileged simultaneously in their ethno-religious and class identities. Findings reveal that being Jewish is salient and a distinct identity for this generation of college students; the history of Jewish oppression continues to inform Jewish identity; Jewish students continues to describe a connection with Blacks; and distinctive processes of ethnic and ethno-religious identity development take place for Jewish undergraduates. Findings suggest the need for a new social identity model that addresses the unique racial, ethnic and ethno-religious positionality of Ashkenazi Jewish undergraduates. The author presents a Jewish ethno-religious target development model, along with implications for anti-racism and social justice education and suggestions for further research

Trade Booms, Trade Busts, and Trade Costs

What has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past and present? We derive a micro-founded measure of trade frictions from leading trade theories and use it to gauge the importance of bilateral trade costs in determining international trade flows. We construct a new balanced sample of bilateral trade flows for 130 country pairs across the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania for the period from 1870 to 2000 and demonstrate an overriding role for declining trade costs in the pre-World War I trade boom. In contrast, for the post-World War II trade boom we identify changes in output as the dominant force. Finally, the entirety of the interwar trade bust is explained by increases in trade costs.