Investigating event-specific drought attribution using self-organizing maps

Previous studies evaluating anthropogenic influences on the meteorological drivers of drought have found mixed results owing to (1) the complex physical mechanisms which lead to the onset of drought, (2) differences in the characteristics and time scales of drought for different regions of the world, and (3) different approaches to the question of attribution. For a midlatitude, temperate climate like New Zealand, strongly modulated by oceanic influences, summer droughts last on the order of 3 months, and are less strongly linked to persistent temperature anomalies than continental climates. Here we demonstrate the utility of a novel approach for characterizing the meteorological conditions conducive to extreme drought over the North Island of New Zealand, using the January–March 2013 event as a case study. Specifically, we consider the use of self‐organizing map techniques in a multimember coupled climate model ensemble to capture changes in daily circulation, between two 41 year periods (1861–1901 and 1993–2033). Comparisons are made with seasonal pressure and precipitation indices. Our results demonstrate robust (>99% confidence) increases in the likelihood of observing circulation patterns like those of the 2013 drought in the recent‐climate simulations when compared with the early‐climate simulations. Best guess estimates of the fraction of attributable risk range from 0.2 to 0.4, depending on the metric used and threshold considered. Contributions to uncertainty in these attribution statements are discussed

RV Sonne Cruise 198-1, 03 May-14 Jun 2008. Singapore - Merak, Indonesia

All plate boundaries are divided into segments - pieces of fault that are distinct from one another, either separated by gaps or with different orientations. The maximum size of an earthquake on a fault system is controlled by the degree to which the propagating rupture can cross the boundaries between such segments. A large earthquake may rupture a whole segment of plate boundary, but a great earthquake usually ruptures more than one segment at once. Earthquakes offshore of Sumatra on December 26th 2004 (MW=9.3) and March 28th 2005 (MW=8.7) ruptured, respectively, 1200-1300 km and 300-400 km of the subduction boundary between the Indian-Australian plate and the Burman and Sumatra blocks. Rupture in the 2004 event started at the southern end of the fault segment, and propagated northwards. The observation that the slip did not propagate significantly southwards in December 2004, even though the magnitude of slip was high at the southern end of the rupture strongly suggests a barrier at that place. Maximum slip in the March 2005 earthquake occurred within ~100 km of the barrier between the 2004 and 2005 ruptures, confirming both the physical importance of the barrier, and the loading of the March 2005 rupture zone by the December 2004 earthquake. Cruise SO198-1, from Singapore to Merak between 3rd May and 14th June 2008 is the first of three cruises, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), which will form a coherent set of geophysical observations in the source regions of the 2004 and 2005 great Sumatra earthquakes. Arrays of 50 ocean-bottom seismometers (OBS) were deployed at each of two locations – between the 2004 and 2005 ruptures, and at the southern end of the 2005 rupture - to record shots from a large-capacity airgun array. Approximately 7 days of continuous airgun shooting at 60s interval was completed at each location. 10 OBS were reconfigured for earthquake recording and deployed with a planned retrieval in early 2009. Gravity, Parasound, and swath bathymetry data were recorded continuously while in the permitted area, with magnetic field data recorded throughout the airgun shooting, and 101 XBT casts taken at the OBS deployment locations

Quantum dots in magnetic fields: thermal response of broken symmetry phases

We investigate the thermal properties of circular semiconductor quantum dots in high magnetic fields using finite temperature Hartree-Fock techniques. We demonstrate that for a given magnetic field strength quantum dots undergo various shape phase transitions as a function of temperature, and we outline possible observable consequences.Comment: In Press, Phys. Rev. B (2001

Dental Caries, Fluorosis, and Fluoride Exposure in Michigan Schoolchildren

This study relates the prevalence of caries and fluorosis among Michigan children, residing in four different areas, to the various concentrations of F in the communities' water supplies. Demographic information, details of F history, and dental attendance data were collected by a questionnaire form filled out by parents. Children ages six to 12 were screened for caries by means of the NIDR criteria and for fluorosis by means of the TSIF index. Results pertain only to continuous residents and the permanent dentition. The prevalence of both caries and fluorosis was significantly associated with the F concentration in the community water supply. Approximately 65% of all children were caries-free, ranging from 55.1 % in fluoride-deficient Cadillac to 73.7% in Redford (1. 0 ppm F). About 36% of all children had dental fluorosis, ranging from 12.2 in Cadillac to 51.2 in Richmond (1.2 ppm). All of the fluorosis was very mild. From logistic regression, the prevalence of caries was significantly associated with age, dental attendance, and the use of a water supply fluoridated at 1.0 ppm. The odds of experiencing fluorosis increased at every F level above the baseline (Cadillac), with the use of topical F rinses, and with age. Results suggest that children in the four communities may be ingesting a similar level of F from sources such as dentifrices, dietary supplements, and professional applications, but the factor that differentiates them with respect to the prevalence of caries and fluorosis is the F concentration in the community water supply.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/66926/2/10.1177_00220345880670050101.pd

Some general properties of the renormalized stress-energy tensor for static quantum states on (n+1)-dimensional spherically symmetric black holes

We study the renormalized stress-energy tensor (RSET) for static quantum states on (n+1)-dimensional, static, spherically symmetric black holes. By solving the conservation equations, we are able to write the stress-energy tensor in terms of a single unknown function of the radial co-ordinate, plus two arbitrary constants. Conditions for the stress-energy tensor to be regular at event horizons (including the extremal and ``ultra-extremal'' cases) are then derived using generalized Kruskal-like co-ordinates. These results should be useful for future calculations of the RSET for static quantum states on spherically symmetric black hole geometries in any number of space-time dimensions.Comment: 9 pages, no figures, RevTeX4, references added, accepted for publication in General Relativity and Gravitatio

Separation of Flip and Non-Flip parst of Charge Exchange np->pn at energies Tn = 0.5 - 2.0 GeV

The new Delta-Sigma experimental data on the ratio $R_{dp}$ allowed separating the Flip and Non-Flip parts of the differential cross section of $np\to pn$ charge exchange process at the zero angle by the Dean formula. The PSA solutions for the $np\to np$ elastic scattering are transformed to the $np\to pn$ charge exchange representation using unitary transition, and good agreement is obtain.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figure

Emergence of Anti-Cancer Drug Resistance: Exploring the Importance of the Microenvironmental Niche via a Spatial Model

Practically, all chemotherapeutic agents lead to drug resistance. Clinically, it is a challenge to determine whether resistance arises prior to, or as a result of, cancer therapy. Further, a number of different intracellular and microenvironmental factors have been correlated with the emergence of drug resistance. With the goal of better understanding drug resistance and its connection with the tumor microenvironment, we have developed a hybrid discrete-continuous mathematical model. In this model, cancer cells described through a particle-spring approach respond to dynamically changing oxygen and DNA damaging drug concentrations described through partial differential equations. We thoroughly explored the behavior of our self-calibrated model under the following common conditions: a fixed layout of the vasculature, an identical initial configuration of cancer cells, the same mechanism of drug action, and one mechanism of cellular response to the drug. We considered one set of simulations in which drug resistance existed prior to the start of treatment, and another set in which drug resistance is acquired in response to treatment. This allows us to compare how both kinds of resistance influence the spatial and temporal dynamics of the developing tumor, and its clonal diversity. We show that both pre-existing and acquired resistance can give rise to three biologically distinct parameter regimes: successful tumor eradication, reduced effectiveness of drug during the course of treatment (resistance), and complete treatment failure

Phenotypic Diversity for Seed Mineral Concentration in North American Dry Bean Germplasm of Middle American Ancestry

Dry bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) seeds are a major protein, carbohydrate, and mineral source in the human diet of peoples in multiple regions of the world. Seed mineral biofortification is an ongoing objective to improve this important food source. The objective of this research was to assess the seed mineral concentration of five macroelements and eight microelements in a large panel (n = 277) of modern race Durango and race Mesoamerica genotypes to determine if variability existed that could be exploited for targeted seed biofortification. Varieties that derive from these races are found in many diets throughout the world. The panel was grown in replicated trials under typical production conditions in the major bean growing regions of the United States, and a subset of the panel was also grown in replicated trials at three locations under control and terminal drought conditions. Except for K, seed mineral concentrations were higher for race Mesoamerica genotypes. Significantly higher seed concentrations for the majority of the minerals were observed for white-seeded genotypes and race Durango genotypes with the now preferred indeterminate, upright growth habit. Modern genotypes (since 1997) had equal or increased mineral concentrations compared with older genotypes. Drought affected mineral content differentially, having no effect on the microelement content but increased Co, Fe, and Ni concentrations. The correlation of Ca and Mn concentrations suggests that these elements may share seed deposition mechanisms. The high heritability for seed mineral concentration implies that breeding progress can be achieved by parental selection from this panel