Refundable Tax Credits for Health Insurance: The Sensitivity of Simulated Impacts to Assumed Behavior

We replicate and extend a simulation model developed by Jonathan Gruber with the goals of illuminating Gruber's modeling of health insurance coverage under a tax credit and examining the sensitivity of the results to changes in the model's key parameters. The replications suggest that a refundable tax credit of $1,000 for a single individual or$2,000 for a family for private health insurance would reduce the number of uninsured individuals by between 17.5 and 28 percent and require new government expenditures of between $16.6 and$44 billion, of which about $7.4 -$9.7 billion would be for coverage of previously uninsured individuals. These wide simulated ranges highlight the uncertainty inherent in modeling the effects of health insurance tax credits and suggest that progress on the issue of tax credits for health insurance will require improved evidence on the likely take-up rate of a credit.health, insurance, Gruber, tax, credit, Woodbury, Emmons, Upjohn

Improving regional ozone modeling through systematic evaluation of errors using the aircraft observations during the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation

During the operational phase of the ICARTT field experiment in 2004, the regional air quality model STEM showed a strong positive surface bias and a negative upper troposphere bias (compared to observed DC-8 and WP-3 observations) with respect to ozone. After updating emissions from NEI 1999 to NEI 2001 (with a 2004 large point sources inventory update), and modifying boundary conditions, low-level model bias decreases from 11.21 to 1.45 ppbv for the NASA DC-8 observations and from 8.26 to −0.34 for the NOAA WP-3. Improvements in boundary conditions provided by global models decrease the upper troposphere negative ozone bias, while accounting for biomass burning emissions improved model performance for CO. The covariances of ozone bias were highly correlated to NOz, NOy, and HNO3 biases. Interpolation of bias information through kriging showed that decreasing emissions in SE United States would reduce regional ozone model bias and improve model correlation coefficients. The spatial distribution of forecast errors was analyzed using kriging, which identified distinct features, which when compared to errors in postanalysis simulations, helped document improvements. Changes in dry deposition to crops were shown to reduce substantially high bias in the forecasts in the Midwest, while updated emissions were shown to account for decreases in bias in the eastern United States. Observed and modeled ozone production efficiencies for the DC-8 were calculated and shown to be very similar (7.8) suggesting that recurring ozone bias is due to overestimation of NOx emissions. Sensitivity studies showed that ozone formation in the United States is most sensitive to NOx emissions, followed by VOCs and CO. PAN as a reservoir of NOx can contribute to a significant amount of surface ozone through thermal decomposition

Copper active sites in biology

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The medical student

The Medical Student was published from 1888-1921 by the students of Boston University School of Medicine

Inventory of Boreal Fire Emissions for North America in 2004: The Importance of Peat Burning and Pyro-Convective Injection

The summer of 2004 was one of the largest fire seasons on record for Alaska and western Canada. We construct a daily bottom-up fire emission inventory for that season, including consideration of peat burning and high-altitude (buoyant) injection, and evaluate it in a global chemical transport model (the GEOS-Chem CTM) simulation of CO through comparison with MOPITT satellite and ICARTT aircraft observations. The inventory is constructed by combining daily area burned reports and MODIS fire hot spots with estimates of fuel consumption and emission factors based on ecosystem type. We estimate the contribution from peat burning using drainage and peat distribution maps for Alaska and Canada; 17% of the reported 5.1 × 106 ha burned were located in peatlands in 2004. Our total estimate of North American fire emissions during the summer of 2004 is 30 Tg CO, including 11 Tg from peat. Including peat burning in the GEOS-Chem simulation improves agreement with MOPITT observations. The long-range transport of fire plumes observed by MOPITT suggests that the largest fires injected a significant fraction of their emissions in the upper troposphere.Earth and Planetary SciencesEngineering and Applied Science

The medical student

The Medical Student was published from 1888-1921 by the students of Boston University School of Medicine

Photoionization of the fullerene ion C60+

Photoionization cross section of the fullerene ion C60+ has been calculated within a single-electron approximation and also by using a consistent many-body theory accounting for many-electron correlations.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figure

Asian outflow and trans-Pacific transport of carbon monoxide and ozone pollution: An integrated satellite, aircraft, and model perspective

Satellite observations of carbon monoxide (CO) from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument are combined with measurements from the Transport and Chemical Evolution Over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft mission over the northwest Pacific and with a global three-dimensional chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) to quantify Asian pollution outflow and its trans-Pacific transport during spring 2001. Global CO column distributions in MOPITT and GEOS-CHEM are highly correlated (R2 = 0.87), with no significant model bias. The largest regional bias is over Southeast Asia, where the model is 18% too high. A 60% decrease of regional biomass burning emissions in the model (to 39 Tg yr−1) would correct the discrepancy; this result is consistent with TRACE-P observations. MOPITT and TRACE-P also give consistent constraints on the Chinese source of CO from fuel combustion (181 Tg CO yr−1). Four major events of trans-Pacific transport of Asian pollution in spring 2001 were seen by MOPITT, in situ platforms, and GEOS-CHEM. One of them was sampled by TRACE-P (26–27 February) as a succession of pollution layers over the northeast Pacific. These layers all originated from one single event of Asian outflow that split into northern and southern plumes over the central Pacific. The northern plume (sampled at 6–8 km off California) had no ozone enhancement. The southern subsiding plume (sampled at 2–4 km west of Hawaii) contained a 8–17 ppbv ozone enhancement, driven by decomposition of peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) to nitrogen oxides (NOx). This result suggests that PAN decomposition in trans-Pacific pollution plumes subsiding over the United States could lead to significant enhancements of surface ozone

The medical student

The Medical Student was published from 1888-1921 by the students of Boston University School of Medicine