A Market Risk Approach to Liquidity Risk and Financial Contagion

According to traditional literature, liquidity risk in individual banks can turn into a system-wide ¯nancial crisis when either interbank credit exposures or bank runs are present. This paper shows that this phenomenon can also arise when individual liquidity risk trans- forms into system-wide market risk (even in the absence of bank runs and interbank credit networks). This happens when banks try to sell some portion of its assets in order to overcome a liquidity shortage (individual liquidity risk). These sales depress the market price of assets if demand is not perfectly elastic. Given the fact that banks mark to market the asset book, the fall of market price reduces the value of assets of every bank in the system (system-wide market risk), leaving them less suited for future liquidity shortages and therefore more prone to bankruptcies. The paper rationalizes this idea through the simulation of a model that tries to capture the behavior of a liq- uidity manager that faces shocks on bank deposits and loans. The main results suggest that the extent of ¯nancial contagion depends crucially on the size of the market for assets.liquidity manager, liquidity risk, market risk, systemic risk, financial contagion, mark-to-market

Multimarket spatial competition in the Colombian deposit market

This paper presents a multimarket spatial competition oligopoly model for the Colombian deposit market, in line with the New Empirical Industrial Organization (NEIO) approach. In this framework, banks use price and non-price strategies to compete in the market, which allows us to analyze the country and the regional competitiveness level. The theoretical model is applied to quarterly Colombian data that covers the period between 1996 and 2005. Our results suggest that, although the country deposit market appears to be more competitive than the Nash equilibrium, there are some local areas within the country that present evidence of market power.Banking; Location; Competition; Colombia. Classification JEL: D4; G21; L13; R12.

EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL CAPITAL ON COLOMBIAN BANKING EFFICIENCY

In this paper we discuss cost and profit efficiency on the Colombian financial market in the period 1989-2003, using stochastic frontier efficiency analysis. During the period, the cost efficient frontier deteriorates, but profit efficient frontier is relatively stable. We found significant difference when we compare the efficiency scores among different types of financial intermediaries. Additionally, our analysis shows that the scores for profit and cost efficiency have different distributions. Also, we found big differences between profit and cost efficiency among the different type of banks. This is evidence in favor of the existence of collusive behavior of some banks, which allows them to capture oligopoly rents.frontier, efficiency, cost, profit, financial capital.

Bank Provisioning and Microcredit

In this paper we develop a banking model to study the traditional credit and the microcredit markets. We suppose a monopolistic traditional bank that specializes in screening potential debtors based in their risk profile and a microcredit bank that focus on monitoring the riskier profile customers. The model is calibrated with Colombian financial data. The results show when banking provisioning depend only on the screening level, a significant portion of the risky debtors are left out of the financial system and the microcredit bank would not operate in certain market conditions. Nonetheless, when we consider provisions that include monitoring considerations, the microcredit bank would be profitable for the different debtor risk profiles, and its optimal monitoring level is higher in comparison with the ones chosen by the traditional bank. Keywords: Bank Provisioning, Microcredit banking model, Regulation and risk profiles, debtor screening, debtor monitoring. Classification JEL: D20; D23; D42; G21; G28.

Effects of Financial Capital on Colombian Banking Efficiency

In this paper we discuss cost and profit efficiency for a sample of financial institutions on the Colombian financial market in the period 1989-2003, using stochastic frontier efficiency analysis. During the period, the cost efficient frontier deteriorates, but profit efficient frontier is relatively stable. We found significant difference when we compare the efficiency scores between types of financial intermediaries. Additionally, our analysis show that the scores for profit and cost efficiency have different distribution. We found big differences between profit and cost efficiency among the different type banks. This is evidence in favor of some banks behaving collusively and capturing oligopoly rents.Frontier; Effficiency; Cost; Profit;Financial Capital

An empirical characterization of mortgage default in Colombia between 1997 and 2004

This paper examines the relationship between mortgage default decisions and relevant observable variables under the light of a random utility model. The focus of the study is the Colombian mortgage market between 1997 and 2004 using two separate data sets that are matched using simulation techniques. The estimation allows the computation of mortgage default probabilities that are directly related to an underlying model of optimal default. Results are sharp and indicate that variation in current income has little effect on mortgage default, compared to housing prices and mortgage balances.D4; G21; L13; R12 Classification JEL: Banking; Location; Competition; Colombia.

An Industrial Organization Analysis for the Colombian Banking System

This paper presents two versions of a spatial competition model for the banking sector. The first version, describes a framework that follows closely Salop’s spatial competition model. This version is modified in the second part by introducing the loan market and default risk probabilities for credit. Both theoretical approaches are analyzed empirically for the Colombian data, covering the period 1996-2005. Our results allow us to construct a deviation of the observed number of branches from an optimal number of branches for the banking system throughout the period of study. The deviation indicates that in the last years the number of branches is below the optimum which suggest that political measures should focus in increasing the number of branches in the country. Additionally, we found empirical evidence of market separability between the loan and deposit markets, and finally, we were able to determine the signs of the relations between credit collateral, payment probability and interest rates.Banking; Location; Competition; Colombia. Classification JEL: D4; G21; L13; R12.

Determinants of Interest Margins in Colombia

This paper analyzes the determinants of interest margins in the Colombian Financial System. Based on the model by Ho and Saun- ders (1981), interest margins are modelled as a function of the pure spread and bank-speci¯c institutional imperfections using quarterly data for the period 1994:IV-2005:III. Additionally, the pure spread is estimated as a function of market power and interest rate volatility. Results indicate that interest margins are mainly a®ected by credit institutions' ine±ciency and to a lesser extent by credit risk exposure and market power. This implies that public policies should be ori- ented towards creating the necessary market conditions for banks to enhance their e±ciency.Interest Margins, Competition, Credit Risk, Interest Rate Risk.

The Effects of Diversification on Banks’ Expected Returns

In financial theory, the optimal allocation of assets and its relationship with profitability has been one of the main concerns; the question has always been if banks should focus or diversify their assets. In our case, we would like to answer this question focusing in diversification of the loan portfolio, presenting a theoretical model that considers the possible gains from diversification, while taking in to account the effects of monitoring. Additionally, we present empirical evidence on this matter for the Colombian banking system. According to the model, we find that once the banks have chosen its optimal level of monitoring, expected return is always higher when the bank decides to focus. Additionally, the empirical results suggest that there are no possible gains form diversification in bank’s cost and that, on average, the effects of focusing the loan portfolio reduces bank’s return while showing positive effects of focusing on an specific sector.Diversification, Risk, Colombian Banking System. Classification JEL: G00; G21; G30.