Deterministic Seasonality in Dickey-Fuller Tests: Should We Care?

This paper investigates the properties of Dickey-Fuller tests for seasonally unadjusted quarterly data when deterministic seasonality is present but it is neglected in the test regression. While for the random walk case the answer is straightforward, an extensive Monte Carlo study has to be performed for more realistic processes and testing strategies. The most important conclusion is that the common perception that deterministic seasonality has nothing to do with the long-run properties of the data is incorrect. Further numerical evidence on the shortcomings of the general-to-specific t-sig lag selection method is also presented.unit root; Dickey-Fuller tests; similar tests; seasonality; Monte Carlo

The Order of Integration for Quarterly Macroeconomic Time series: a Simple Testing Strategy

Besides introducing a simple and intuitive definition for the order of integration of quarterly time series, this paper also presents a simple testing strategy to determine that order for the case of macroeconomic data. A simulation study shows that much more attention should be devoted to the practical issue of selecting the maximum admissible order of integration. In fact, it is shown that when that order is too high, one may get (spurious) evidence for an excessive number of unit roots, resulting in an overdifferenced series.

The Behavior of HEGY Tests for Quarterly Time Series with Seasonal Mean Shifts

This paper studies the behavior of the HEGY statistics for quarterly data, for seasonal autoregressive unit roots, when the analyzed time series is deterministic seasonal stationary but exhibits a change in the seasonal pattern. As a by-product we analyze also the HEGY test for the nonseasonal unit root, the data generation process being trend stationary too. Our results show that when the break magnitudes are finite the HEGY test statistics are not asymptotically biased towards the non-rejection of the seasonal and nonseasonal unit root hypotheses. However, the finite sample power properties may be substancially affected, the behavior of the tests depending on the type of the break. Hence, our results are also useful to understand and to predict this behavior under several circumstances.seasonality; unit roots; strctural breaks; HEGY tests

Short and long run tests of the expectations hypothesis: the Portuguese case

The purpose of this paper is to test both short- and long-run implications of the (rational) expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates using Portuguese data for the interbank money market. The results support only a very weak, long-run or "asymptotic" version of the hypothesis, and broadly agree with previous (but separate) evidence for other countries. Empirical evidence supports the cointegration of Portuguese rates and the "puzzle" well known in the literature: although its forecasts of future short-term rates are in the correct direction, the spread between longer and shorter rates fails to forecast future longer rates. Further short-run implications of the hypothesis in terms of the predictive ability of the spread are also clearly rejected, even for the more stable period which emerged in the middle nineties.Term structure; Expectations hypothesis; Hypothesis testing; Structural breaks; Portugal

Understanding the mental health burden of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom

This article outlines the mental health burden of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom population, and presents preliminary evidence of less common psychiatric issues, such as paranoia and hallucinations, to which vulnerable groups in the U.K. population may be more vulnerable. It is argued that cognitive– behavioral therapy, with components of mindfulness, should be part of the therapeutic response

Contexts for questioning: Two zones of teaching and learning in undergraduate science

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published article is available from the link below. Copyright @ Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012.Higher education institutions are currently undertaking a challenging process in moving from teacher-orientated to student-focused approaches. Students’ ability to asking questions is fundamental to developing critical reasoning, and to the process of scientific enquiry itself. Our premise is that questioning competences should become a central focus of current reforms in higher education. This study, part of a broader naturalistic research project, aims at developing a theoretical framework for conceptualizing different contexts for questioning, illustrating the application of the proposed framework (contextual questioning zones) and reflecting about some of the dimensions of teaching and learning, for overcoming some of the challenges that higher education institutions are facing presently. The discussion of two ‘opposite’ contexts of enquiry is based on qualitative data, gathered through close collaboration with four teachers of undergraduate biology at a Portuguese university. These teachers were observed during their ‘daily activity’ during an academic year. Data was also gathered by interviewing these teachers and 8 selected students, at the end of the year, and used to sustain the argumentation. The paper concludes with some reflections and suggestions to promote authentic enquiry-based learning experiences.Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologi

The old questions are the best: striving against invalidity in qualitative research

This chapter enters an old debate on the shape of validation processes in qualitative research. We discuss a reflective research validation framework related to teaching approaches and practices. The majority of investigations in this area draw mainly on indirect observation, semistructured interviews or the application of questionnaires and inventories. To this extent, only “half-the-story” has been reported. The validation framework here develops a five-part three stage structure, conceptualized as an “iterative-interactive-process,” integrating a set of strategies aimed at the “minimization of invalidity.” The application of the framework is illustrated through a longitudinal study investigating the relationship between classroom questioning practices and teachers’ preferential teaching approaches. Fieldwork in this naturalistic-interpretative research was conducted during four academic years and entailed close collaboration with a group of four university teachers lecturing biology to undergraduates.The authors acknowledge the financial support of Portuguese Fundac¸a˜o para a Cieˆncia e a Tecnologia (SFRH/BD/44611/2008; PTDC/CPE-CED/ 117516/2010).Portuguese Fundac ̧ a ̃ o para a Cieˆ ncia e a Tecnologia (SFRH/BD/44611/2008; PTDC/CPE-CED/ 117516/2010)

Sistema de produção de banana para a Zona da Mata de Pernambuco.

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