Bayesian variable selection using cost-adjusted BIC, with application to cost-effective measurement of quality of health care

In the field of quality of health care measurement, one approach to assessing patient sickness at admission involves a logistic regression of mortality within 30 days of admission on a fairly large number of sickness indicators (on the order of 100) to construct a sickness scale, employing classical variable selection methods to find an ``optimal'' subset of 10--20 indicators. Such ``benefit-only'' methods ignore the considerable differences among the sickness indicators in cost of data collection, an issue that is crucial when admission sickness is used to drive programs (now implemented or under consideration in several countries, including the U.S. and U.K.) that attempt to identify substandard hospitals by comparing observed and expected mortality rates (given admission sickness). When both data-collection cost and accuracy of prediction of 30-day mortality are considered, a large variable-selection problem arises in which costly variables that do not predict well enough should be omitted from the final scale. In this paper (a) we develop a method for solving this problem based on posterior model odds, arising from a prior distribution that (1) accounts for the cost of each variable and (2) results in a set of posterior model probabilities that corresponds to a generalized cost-adjusted version of the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and (b) we compare this method with a decision-theoretic cost-benefit approach based on maximizing expected utility. We use reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) methods to search the model space, and we check the stability of our findings with two variants of the MCMC model composition ($\mathit{MC}^3$) algorithm.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS207 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

NASA Johnson Space Center's Planetary Sample Analysis and Mission Science (PSAMS) Laboratory: A National Facility for Planetary Research

NASA Johnson Space Center's (JSC's) Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science (ARES) Division, part of the Exploration Integration and Science Directorate, houses a unique combination of laboratories and other assets for conducting cutting edge planetary research. These facilities have been accessed for decades by outside scientists, most at no cost and on an informal basis. ARES has thus provided substantial leverage to many past and ongoing science projects at the national and international level. Here we propose to formalize that support via an ARES/JSC Plane-tary Sample Analysis and Mission Science Laboratory (PSAMS Lab). We maintain three major research capa-bilities: astromaterial sample analysis, planetary process simulation, and robotic-mission analog research. ARES scientists also support planning for eventual human ex-ploration missions, including astronaut geological training. We outline our facility's capabilities and its potential service to the community at large which, taken together with longstanding ARES experience and expertise in curation and in applied mission science, enable multi-disciplinary planetary research possible at no other institution. Comprehensive campaigns incorporating sample data, experimental constraints, and mission science data can be conducted under one roof

Solid state microelectronics tolerant to radiation and high temperature

The 300 C electronics technology based on JFET thick film hybrids was tested up to 10 to the 9th power rad gamma (Si) and 10 to the 15th power neutrons/sq cm. Circuits and individual components from this technology all survived this total dose although some devices required 1 hour of annealing at 200 or 300 C to regain functionality. This technology used with real time annealing should function to levels greater than 10 to the 10th power rad gamma and 10 to the 16th power n/sq cm

MIMAC potential discovery and exclusion of neutralinos in the MSSM and NMSSM

The MIMAC project aims to provide a nominal fluorine detector for directional detection of galactic dark matter recoil events. Its expected behavior reaches an important part of the predicted spin dependent elastic scattering interactions of the supersymmetric neutralino with protons. Hence, the parameter space in the MSSM and the NMSSM models with neutralino dark matter could be probed by such experimental efforts. In particular, a good sensitivity to spin dependent interactions tackles parameter space regions to which the predictions on spin independent interactions and indirect signatures are far below current and projected experiments.Comment: Proceedings of the 3rd International conference on Directional Detection of Dark Matter (CYGNUS 2011), Aussois, France, 8-10 June 201

Using Rheo-Small-Angle Neutron Scattering to Understand How Functionalised Dipeptides Form Gels

We explore the use of rheo-small-angle neutron scattering as a method to collect structural information from neutron scattering simultaneously with rheology to understand how low-molecular-weight hydrogels form and behave under shear. We examine three different gelling hydrogel systems to assess what structures are formed and how these influence the rheology. Furthermore, we probe what is happening to the network during syneresis and why the gels do not recover after an applied strain. All this information is vital when considering gels for applications such as 3D-printing and injection

Decuplet Baryon Structure from Lattice QCD

The electromagnetic properties of the SU(3)-flavor baryon decuplet are examined within a lattice simulation of quenched QCD. Electric charge radii, magnetic moments, and magnetic radii are extracted from the E0 and M1 form factors. Preliminary results for the E2 and M3 moments are presented giving the first model independent insight to the shape of the quark distribution in the baryon ground state. As in our octet baryon analysis, the lattice results give evidence of spin-dependent forces and mass effects in the electromagnetic properties. The quark charge distribution radii indicate these effects act in opposing directions. Some baryon dependence of the effective quark magnetic moments is seen. However, this dependence in decuplet baryons is more subtle than that for octet baryons. Of particular interest are the lattice predictions for the magnetic moments of $\Omega^-$ and $\Delta^{++}$ for which new recent experimental measurements are available. The lattice prediction of the $\Delta^{++}/p$ ratio appears larger than the experimental ratio, while the lattice prediction for the $\Omega^-/p$ magnetic moment ratio is in good agreement with the experimental ratio.Comment: RevTeX manuscript, 34 pages plus 21 figures (available upon request

Are Ferroan Anorthosites Direct Products of the Lunar Magma Ocean?

According to Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) theory, lunar samples that fall into the ferroan anorthosite (FAN) category represent the only samples we have of of the primordial crust of the Moon. Modeling indicates that plagioclase crystallizes after >70% LMO crystallization and formed a flotation crust, depending upon starting composition. The FAN group of highlands materials has been subdivided into mafic-magnesian, mafic-ferroan, anorthositic- sodic, and anorthositic-ferroan, although it is not clear how these subgroups are related. Recent radiogenic isotope work has suggested the range in FAN ages and isotopic systematics are inconsistent with formation of all FANs from the LMO. While an insulating lid could have theoretically extend the life of the LMO to explain the range of the published ages, are the FAN compositions consistent with crystallization from the LMO? As part of a funded Emerging Worlds proposal (NNX15AH76G), we examine this question through analysis of FAN samples. We compare the results with various LMO crystallization models, including those that incorporate the influence of garnet

Lifting the Veil on Obscured Accretion: Active Galactic Nuclei Number Counts and Survey Strategies for Imaging Hard X-Ray Missions

Finding and characterizing the population of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) that produces the X-ray background (XRB) is necessary to connect the history of accretion to observations of galaxy evolution at longer wavelengths. The year 2012 will see the deployment of the first hard X-ray imaging telescope which, through deep extragalactic surveys, will be able to measure the AGN population at the energies where the XRB peaks (~20-30 keV). Here, we present predictions of AGN number counts in three hard X-ray bandpasses: 6-10 keV, 10-30 keV, and 30-60 keV. Separate predictions are presented for the number counts of Compton thick AGNs, the most heavily obscured active galaxies. The number counts are calculated for five different models of the XRB that differ in the assumed hard X-ray luminosity function, the evolution of the Compton thick AGNs, and the underlying AGN spectral model. The majority of the hard X-ray number counts will be Compton thin AGNs, but there is a greater than tenfold increase in the Compton thick number counts from the 6-10 keV to the 10-30 keV band. The Compton thick population shows enough variation that a hard X-ray number counts measurement will constrain the models. The computed number counts are used to consider various survey strategies for the NuSTAR mission, assuming a total exposure time of 6.2 Ms. We find that multiple surveys will allow a measurement of Compton thick evolution. The predictions presented here should be useful for all future imaging hard X-ray missions