La revisión estratégica en curso en el Fondo Monetario Internacional

En este ARI se analiza el proceso de revisión estratégica que el Fondo Monetario Internacional está llevando a cabo en la actualidad. Existe la sensación de que el Fondo Monetario Internacional ha perdido peso y capacidad de influencia a lo largo de los últimos años. Los mercados emergentes han tendido a desvincularse de la institución, “auto-asegurándose” mediante la acumulación de reservas internacionales y, en ocasiones, anticipando la cancelación de sus programas. La irrupción de unos desequilibrios globales sin precedentes ha puesto de manifiesto la falta de palanca de la función de supervisión del Fondo en los países de importancia sistémica y, por tanto, la escasa capacidad de la institución para evitar y corregir la emergencia de vulnerabilidades en la economía mundial. La legitimidad del FMI también se ha puesto en entredicho dado que el peso de sus Estados miembros en los órganos de gobierno de la institución ya no refleja el peso real de estos países en la economía mundial. Éstas son algunas de las principales cuestiones que están siendo debatidas por la comunidad internacional en el contexto de la revisión estratégica en curso en el seno del FMI. Si bien ya se han adelantado varias propuestas para avanzar en estos tres frentes, lo cierto es que parece existir poco consenso sobre las reformas a implementar

Implicaciones de la pasada cumbre del G-20 para el Fondo Monetario Internacional

Tras la cumbre del G-20 celebrada en Londres el pasado 2 de abril se puede concluir que a medio y largo plazo sólo se consolidará la posición de liderazgo del FMI si se reforma su gobernabilidad. La pasada cumbre del G-20 se centró principalmente en el Fondo Monetario Internacional, adoptando una serie de decisiones que pretenden fortalecer la red de protección financiera multilateral proporcionada por esta institución. Algunas de estas medidas, como la introducción de la Línea de Crédito Flexible, desbloquean un debate de años, abriendo la puerta a una reforma de las facilidades del FMI basada en la adopción de un modelo de “aseguramiento”. Por su parte, la decisión de emitir Derechos Especiales de Giro podría constituir la antesala de un interesante debate sobre el papel a jugar por el dólar en el sistema monetario internacional. Sin embargo, a medio y largo plazo sólo se consolidará la posición de liderazgo del FMI si se reforma su gobernabilidad, aumentando el peso de los mercados emergentes y de los países en vías de desarrollo en los órganos de decisión de la institución

ALCA, el Fast Track entre Estados Unidos y América Latina

Desde que se iniciasen las negociaciones en 1998, numerosos analistas han considerado que el éxito del ALCA dependía en última instancia de un desarrollo político interno de EEUU: la aprobación del Fast Track, que otorga al ejecutivo poderes especiales para negociar tratados comerciales. Ello se logró el pasado mes de agosto

The causes and consequences of IMF interventions in the Southern Cone.

The International Monetary Fund has often been accused of adopting a one-size-fits-all approach to the resolution of financial crises. However, its programs present substantial differences in terms of their relative size and conditionality among other characteristics. This dissertation examines the causes and consequences of this variation through the lenses of two cases in which the contrast between the Fund´s interventions was particularly marked: Argentina and Uruguay during the period that surrounds the financial crash of 2001-02. The first part of this study analyses the determinants of these multilateral interventions through an adaptation of Robert Puntam´s two level games, exploring the way in which national politics interacted with international priorities to produce distinct outcomes in Argentina and Uruguay. The two experiences confirm that domestic ratification processes impose significant constraints on the negotiation of IMF programs, potentially conferring localized bargaining advantages to borrowing governments. Beyond a certain point, however, an intensification of these ratification constraints can result in a suspension of the Fund´s support, after which borrowers´ bargaining position weakens dramatically. That this point of rupture was reached in Argentina but not in Uruguay was due primarily to the different propensity to cooperate exhibited by political actors in these two countries, itself the product of certain institutional conditions such as the strength of their systems of checks and balances or a varying distribution of veto power. In turn, the second part of this thesis applies a hypothetical counterfactual approach to assess the consequences of the multilateral decisions adopted during the 2001-02 crisis in the Southern Cone. Although the contrast between the suspension of the Argentine program in December 2001 and the Uruguayan bailout of August 2002 had surprisingly modest macroeconomic consequences, its impact on politics and institutions was profound both in the short and in the medium-term. As a result of these findings, this dissertation argues that a better understanding of the implications of multilateral crisis resolution loans on the political economy of the countries concerned is still needed

Creditor discrimination during sovereign debt restructurings

This paper explores patterns of discrimination between residents and foreign creditors during recents sovereign debt restructurings. We analyze 10 recent episodes distinguishing between neutral cases in which the sovereign treated creditors equitably irrespective of their nationality and instances of discrimination against residents and non-residents. We then present evidence in support of the hypothesis that these patterns of discrimination can be explained by the origin of liquidity pressures, the ex ante soundness of the banking system and the extent of the domestic corporate sector’s reliance on international financial markets. On the theoretical side, we present a simple model of a government’s strategic decision to diferentiate between the servicing of its domestic and its external debt. In our model, the basic trade-off facing the authorities is to default on external debt and in so doing restricting private access to international capital markets or to default on domestic debt, thereby curtailing the banking sector’s capacity to lend to domestic firm

What kind of capital flows does the IMF catalyze and when?

Using empirical analysis, complemented with case studies, this paper studies under which circumstances IMF programs manage to catalyze private capital flows into the countries concerned. While we found no catalysis in general, the situation differs very much depending on the type of capital flow and the program’s objective. On the first, the Fund seems to be doing a better job at attracting FDI than shorter-term flows, particularly cross-border bank lending. On the second, programs oriented towards crisis prevention or with longer-term objectives, also perform better in terms of catalysis. In turn, programs oriented towards crisis resolution actually discourage private capital flows. This worrisome finding, given the importance of crisis resolution for the Fund, is mitigated for FDI inflows in the case studies analysed. Finally, all case studies point to the role of conditionality –as opposed to signalling and liquidity– as the strongest channel through which IMF catalyzes private flows. [resumen de autor

Measuring and explaining the volatility of capital flows towards emerging countries

This paper analyzes the determinants of the volatility of different types of capital inflows to emerging countries. After calculating a variable that proxies capital flows volatility, we study its possible causality relations with a set of explanatory variables by type of flow through a panel data model. We show that in recent years the significance of global factors, beyond the control of emerging economies, has increased at the expense of that of country specific factors. In addition, various factors exhibit a non-robust effect on the volatility of the three different categories of capital flows, which poses additional challenges for policy-maker

The role of the IMF in recent sovereign debt restructurings : implication for the policy of lending into arrears

This paper analyzes the role played by the IMF in eight recent sovereign debt restructurings from a comparative perspective: Argentina (2001-2005), the Dominican Republic (2004-2005), Ecuador (1999-2000), Pakistan (1998-2001), the Russian Federation (1998-2001), Serbia (2000-2004), Ukraine (1998-2000) and Uruguay (2004). Our objective is to identify the various dimensions of the IMF's potential involvement during those processes, and to extract some relevant policy implications to reform the Policy of Lending Into Arrears. We find that the IMF can potentially exert a substantial influence on sovereign debt restructurings by influencing countries' decision to restructure when the debt burden is deemed unsustainable, by providing official finance to substitute for a loss of access to international financial markets, by setting a medium-term domestic adjustment path through conditionality, by providing 'independent' information at a time of heightened uncertainty, and by providing incentives both to creditors and debtors. However, a lack of consistency has tended to characterize the role of the IMF in recent sovereign debt restructurings. In part, this reflects the flexibility with which the IMF has adapted its intervention to country-specific factors. However, we argue that this lack of consistency has tended to exacerbate the uncertainty and information asymmetries that are often associated with sovereign debt restructurings, and that a more systematic approach is neede

Recent episodes of sovereign debt restructurings : a case-study approach

Sovereign debt restructurings do constitute a recurrent phenomenon in emerging and developing economies. Consequently, the international community has repeatedly explored options to increase the predictability and orderliness of debt workouts, of which the debate on the Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism (SDRM) proposed by the IMF in 2002 is the most recent example. Eventually, however, the most ambitious reform proposals have been systematically abandoned, thereby consolidating debt restructurings as market-led case-by-case processes. This paper reviews nine recent sovereign debt restructurings: Argentina (2001-2005), Belize (2006-2007), the Dominican Republic (2004-2005), Ecuador (1999-2000), Pakistan (1998-2001), the Russian Federation (1998-2001), Serbia (2000-2004), Ukraine (1998-2000) and Uruguay (2004). Our case study analysis reveals the lack of a single model for sovereign debt restructurings. Indeed, we find significant variations in the roots of the crises, the size of the losses undergone by investors, the speed at which an agreement was reached with creditors, the proportion of creditors accepting the terms of that agreement, or the time needed to restore access to international financial markets. There also appears to be a lack of consistency in the role played by the IMF in the various crises.

El efecto catalítico del Fondo Monetario Internacional sobre los flujos de capital privado hacia las economías emergentes

Artículo de revist