State intervention, local indebtedness, investment overheating and their systemic background during global crisis in China

This paper focuses on the immediate economic and systemic reasons of steadily increasing local government indebtedness and investment overheating in China. These two phenomena emerged between 2008 and 2011 as a direct consequence of an external shock caused by the global crisis and the subsequent internal reaction in the form of intensified stimulating state intervention. New chances for resource distribution and investments through state intervention mobilized distribution priorities and politically rational economic behavior of actors, characteristic to party-state systems. Locations of mobilization were defined by the decentralized Chinese system specifics along the intertwined institutional party-state structure. Systemic characteristics and its Chinese specifics together resulted in investment overheating, and steadily growing local indebtedness through large and state-owned enterprises and local governments. This process was further amplified by the characteristics of transforming economy in China as actors in the private sphere were mobilized by the increased input demand of those privileged by the systemic priorities of state intervention

Crisis, stimulus package and migration in China

Authors of this paper trace the influence of the 2008 global crisis and the impact of the subsequently implemented stimulus package on the characteristics of migrant flow in China until 2012. They analyze the consequences of the temporary but dramatic economic set-back on migrant employment and that of the booming investments incited by the stimulus package. The paper reveals that the set-back caused dramatic temporary rise of migrant unemployment; it also had regional character due to the coastal concentration of exports hit by the crisis, determining earlier the direction of migrant flow. Regional priorities of the stimulus package reinforced the redirection of migrants away from the coast towards central and western regions. Migration routes also shortened partly because migrants’s destination shifted closer to their home-town region and also by increasingly finding workplace within their own province during the researched period. The stimulus package restructured migrant routes of the pre-crisis period not only according to its regional priorities, but also according to sectoral priorities from manufacturing towards the construction sector. The restructuring, combined with increased number of migrants, shows both temporary and steady features as migrants adapt to the dynamics of the impact of the stimulus package and to respective economic reactions

Az IPS összehasonlító pártállami modell főbb fejlődési patternjeinek konkrét bemutatása Románia, Magyarország és Kína példáján, valamint a patternek empirikus tesztelése Kínában, megyei szinten. = Concrete demonstration of the developmental patterns of the IPS (Interactive Party-State) model on the example of Romania, Hungary and China, and the empirical testing of the patterns in China on county level.

Összehasonlító kutatásaim eredményét a Nagydoktori disszertációm, valamint az Akadémiai Kiadónál megjelenő könyvem foglalja össze. A disszertáció első részében a pártállamok szerkezetét, annak elemeit, kapcsolódási és működési elveit írtam le, az egyéni párt- állami és gazdasági kölcsönkapcsolatából kiindulva. Megfogalmaztam a pártállamok önhasonló vonásait, ezen belül szerkezetét, működését, újratermelődését, belső csapdáit és ennek következtében elkerülhetetlen bomlását és összeomlását. Az önhasonlóság mellett az eltérések szerkezeti hátterét és ezek következményeit is leírtam, a pártállamok újratermelődésének eszközeire, működésére és átalakulására. A felvázolt párt-állami modellt illetve annak három alapvető hatalmi eloszlásából adódó változatát három esettanulmányban is bemutattam, Románia, Magyarország és Kína példáján. Kínában empirikus kutatásra is sor került, amely a pártállami háló megyei szintű átalakulását kutattam. | Results of my comparative research were summarized in my Academic Doctoral thesis and my book to be published in early 2006. First part of the dissertation describes the structure, elements principles of connection and operation of party-states based on the interrelationship of individual party-state and economic decision-makers. I defined the self-similar traits of party-states and within those, the structure, operation, self-reproduction, internal traps and consequently unavoidable disintegration and collapse of the system. Apart the self-similarity I defined the structural background of the differences, their instruments of self-reproduction and its consequences on the instruments of self-reproduction, its operation and transformation. The model and the three patterns defined within its framework was demonstrated in three case-studies on the example of Romania, Hungary and China. Also an empirical survey conducted in China demonstrated the transformation of the party-state net on county level