Examination of Bayesian belief network for safety assessment of nuclear computer-based systems

We report here on a continuation of work on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)model described in [Fenton, Littlewood et al. 1998]. As explained in the previous deliverable, our model concerns one part of the safety assessment task for computer and software based nuclear systems. We have produced a first complete, functioning version of our BBN model by eliciting a large numerical node probability table (NPT) required for our ‘Design Process Performance’ variable. The requirement for such large numerical NPTs poses some difficult questions about how, in general, large NPTs should be elicited from domain experts. We report about the methods we have devised to support the expert in building and validating a BBN. On the one hand, we have proceeded by eliciting approximate descriptions of the expert’s probabilistic beliefs, in terms of properties like stochastic orderings among distributions; on the other hand, we have explored ways of presenting to the expert visual and algebraic descriptions of relations among variables in the BBN, to assist the expert in an ongoing assessment of the validity of the BBN

Circuit approach to photonic heat transport

We discuss the heat transfer by photons between two metals coupled by a linear element with a reactive impedance. Using a simple circuit approach, we calculate the spectral power transmitted from one resistor to the other and find that it is determined by the photon transmission coefficient, which depends on the impedances of the metals and the coupling element. We study the total photonic power flow for different coupling impedances, both in the linear regime, where the temperature difference between the metals is small, and in the non-linear regime of large temperature differences.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figure

Systematic Construction of Nonlinear Product Attacks on Block Ciphers

A major open problem in block cipher cryptanalysis is discovery of new invariant properties of complex type. Recent papers show that this can be achieved for SCREAM, Midori64, MANTIS-4, T-310 or for DES with modified S-boxes. Until now such attacks are hard to find and seem to happen by some sort of incredible coincidence. In this paper we abstract the attack from any particular block cipher. We study these attacks in terms of transformations on multivariate polynomials. We shall demonstrate how numerous variables including key variables may sometimes be eliminated and at the end two very complex Boolean polynomials will become equal. We present a general construction of an attack where multiply all the polynomials lying on one or several cycles. Then under suitable conditions the non-linear functions involved will be eliminated totally. We obtain a periodic invariant property holding for any number of rounds. A major difficulty with invariant attacks is that they typically work only for some keys. In T-310 our attack works for any key and also in spite of the presence of round constants

A Delphi Study of Performance Appraisal Practices of Malcolm Baldrige Award Winning Organizations

Total Quality (TQ) is a philosophy that is currently being incorporated by organizations throughout America. TQ philosophers maintain that Total Quality can be achieved only if organizations change their cultures, including the traditional view toward the role of the performance appraisal. Theses experts maintain that the traditional performance appraisal does not promote process improvement, empowerment and team building as TQ prescribes. This thesis is a Delphi study of the performance appraisal practices of Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award winning companies. The study attempts to describe the performance appraisal practices of 10 companies who have successfully implemented TQ. The existence of traditional and TQ appraisal characteristics is measured and the performance appraisal techniques of the organizations are benchmarked. The study determines that, with little exception, these companies still employ many traditional approaches to their performance appraisals, but have altered some practices by incorporating new techniques to promote process improvement, employee empowerment and team building. The unique practices and characteristics of these organizations are presented

Non-linear and quantum optics of a type II OPO containing a birefringent element Part 1: Classical operation

We describe theoretically the main characteristics of the steady state regime of a type II Optical Parametric Oscillator (OPO) containing a birefringent plate. In such a device the signal and idler waves are at the same time linearly coupled by the plate and nonlinearly coupled by the $\chi^{(2)}$ crystal. This mixed coupling allows, in some well-defined range of the control parameters, a frequency degenerate operation as well as phase locking between the signal and idler modes. We describe here a complete model taking into account all possible effects in the system, \emph{i.e.} arbitrary rotation of the waveplate, non perfect phase matching, ring and linear cavities. This model is able to explain the detailed features of the experiments performed with this system.Comment: To be published in EPJ

Bayesian belief network model for the safety assessment of nuclear computer-based systems

The formalism of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) is being increasingly applied to probabilistic modelling and decision problems in a widening variety of fields. This method provides the advantages of a formal probabilistic model, presented in an easily assimilated visual form, together with the ready availability of efficient computational methods and tools for exploring model consequences. Here we formulate one BBN model of a part of the safety assessment task for computer and software based nuclear systems important to safety. Our model is developed from the perspective of an independent safety assessor who is presented with the task of evaluating evidence from disparate sources: the requirement specification and verification documentation of the system licensee and of the system manufacturer; the previous reputation of the various participants in the design process; knowledge of commercial pressures;information about tools and resources used; and many other sources. Based on these multiple sources of evidence, the independent assessor is ultimately obliged to make a decision as to whether or not the system should be licensed for operation within a particular nuclear plant environment. Our BBN model is a contribution towards a formal model of this decision problem. We restrict attention to a part of this problem: the safety analysis of the Computer System Specification documentation. As with other BBN applications we see this modelling activity as having several potential benefits. It employs a rigorous formalism as a focus for examination, discussion, and criticism of arguments about safety. It obliges the modeller to be very explicit about assumptions concerning probabilistic dependencies, correlations, and causal relationships. It allows sensitivity analyses to be carried out. Ultimately we envisage this BBN, or some later development of it, forming part of a larger model, which might well take the form of a larger BBN model, covering all sources of evidence about pre-operational life-cycle stages. This could provide an integrated model of all aspects of the task of the independent assessor, leading up to the final judgement about system safety in a particular context. We expect to offer some results of this further work later in the DeVa project

Density of states in a superconductor carrying a supercurrent

We have measured the tunneling density of states (DOS) in a superconductor carrying a supercurrent or exposed to an external magnetic field. The pair correlations are weakened by the supercurrent, leading to a modification of the DOS and to a reduction of the gap. As predicted by the theory of superconductivity in diffusive metals, we find that this effect is similar to that of an external magnetic field.Comment: To be published in Physical Review Letter

Brillouin propagation modes in optical lattices: Interpretation in terms of nonconventional stochastic resonance

We report the first direct observation of Brillouin-like propagation modes in a dissipative periodic optical lattice. This has been done by observing a resonant behavior of the spatial diffusion coefficient in the direction corresponding to the propagation mode with the phase velocity of the moving intensity modulation used to excite these propagation modes. Furthermore, we show theoretically that the amplitude of the Brillouin mode is a nonmonotonic function of the strength of the noise corresponding to the optical pumping, and discuss this behavior in terms of nonconventional stochastic resonance