The Implications of Using a Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Model for Pesticide Risk Assessment

Background: A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model would make it possible to simulate the dynamics of chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination (ADME) from different routes of exposures and, in theory, could be used to evaluate associations between exposures and biomarker measurements in blood or urine. Objective: We used a PBPK model to predict urinary excretion of 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (TCPY), the specific metabolite of chlorpyrifos (CPF), in young children.Methods We developed a child-specific PBPK model for CPF using PBPK models previously developed for rats and adult humans. Data used in the model simulation were collected from 13 children 3–6 years of age who participated in a cross-sectional pesticide exposure assessment study with repeated environmental and biological sampling. Results: The model-predicted urinary TCPY excretion estimates were consistent with measured levels for 2 children with two 24-hr duplicate food samples that contained 350 and 12 ng/g of CPF, respectively. However, we found that the majority of model outputs underpredicted the measured urinary TCPY excretion. Conclusions: We concluded that the potential measurement errors associated with the aggregate exposure measurements will probably limit the applicability of PBPK model estimates for interpreting urinary TCPY excretion and absorbed CPF dose from multiple sources of exposure. However, recent changes in organophosphorus (OP) use have shifted exposures from multipathways to dietary ingestion only. Thus, we concluded that the PBPK model is still a valuable tool for converting dietary pesticide exposures to absorbed dose estimates when the model input data are accurate estimates of dietary pesticide exposures

Detecting the start of an influenza outbreak using exponentially weighted moving average charts

Background. Influenza viruses cause seasonal outbreaks in temperate climates, usually during winter and early spring, and are endemic in tropical climates. The severity and length of influenza outbreaks vary from year to year. Quick and reliable detection of the start of an outbreak is needed to promote public health measures. Methods. We propose the use of an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart of laboratory confirmed influenza counts to detect the start and end of influenza outbreaks. Results. The chart is shown to provide timely signals in an example application with seven years of data from Victoria, Australia. Conclusions. The EWMA control chart could be applied in other applications to quickly detect influenza outbreaks

Seasonal variation of water uptake of a Quercus suber tree in Central Portugal

Hydraulic redistribution (HR) is the phenomenon where plant roots transfer water between soil horizons of different water potential. When dry soil is a stronger sink for water loss from the plant than transpiration, water absorbed by roots in wetter soil horizons is transferred toward, and exuded into dry soil via flow reversals through the roots. Reverse flow is a good marker of HR and can serve as a useful tool to study it over the long-term. Seasonal variation of water uptake of a Quercus suber tree was studied from late winter through autumn 2003 at Rio Frio near Lisbon, Portugal. Sap flow was measured in five small shallow roots (diameter of 3–4 cm), 1 to 2 m from the tree trunk and in four azimuths and at different xylem depths at the trunk base, using the heat field deformation method (HFD). The pattern of sap flow differed among lateral roots as soil dried with constant positive flow in three roots and reverse flow in two other roots during the night when transpiration ceased. Rain modified the pattern of flow in these two roots by eliminating reverse flow and substantially increasing water uptake for transpiration during the day. The increase in water uptake in three other roots following rain was not so substantial. In addition, the flux in individual roots was correlated to different degrees with the flux at different radial depths and azimuthal directions in trunk xylem. The flow in outer trunk xylem seemed to be mostly consistent with water movement from surface soil horizons, whereas deep roots seemed to supply water to the whole cross-section of sapwood. When water flow substantially decreased in shallow lateral roots and the outer stem xylem during drought, water flow in the inner sapwood was maintained, presumably due to its direct connection to deep roots. Results also suggest the importance of the sap flow sensor placement, in relation to sinker roots, as to whether lateral roots might be found to exhibit reverse flow during drought. This study is consistent with the dimorphic rooting habit of Quercus suber trees in which deep roots access groundwater to supply superficial roots and the whole tree, when shallow soil layers were dry