A CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODEL OF THE GENERAL RATE OF PROFIT

We present a simulation exercise of classical free competition in which individual capitals attracted by prospective rates of profit move across industries in their Moore neighborhoods. Capitals, in general, never settle down to a fully equalized general rate of profit position and the most common characteristic of the series of cross sectional average rate of profit is the never ending gravitation around the average rate of profit determined by the number of capitals in the lattice-economy. The statistical properties that emerge from the interaction of our agents resembles stable distributions chracterized by skewness and heavy tails.

Dívida pública e dependência na América Latina: os casos do Brasil, Argentina e México

No último quartel do século passado o capitalismo entrou numa nova fase, centrado nos fluxos comerciais e financeiros em escala global, inaugurado ainda na década de setenta e perpetuado com a liberalização-conservadora dos principais governos do capitalismo central, de Ronald Reagan (EUA) e Margareth Thatcher (Inglaterra), projetou-se em várias experiências mundiais e latino-americanas de políticas neoliberais fundamentadas no chamado “Consenso de Washington”. A dívida pública dos países latino-americanos passou por mudanças ao longo do período neoliberal que deram impulso ao seu crescimento e que a diferencia parcialmente de seu formato no período anterior. A dívida pública se constituiu como um dos principais mecanismos de transferência de renda desta periferia capitalista para o mundo desenvolvido, refletindo na própria dinâmica de dependência e subdesenvolvimento latino-americano, inclusive nas características macroeconômicas de baixo crescimento econômico médio e crescente pauperização de sua população. O objetivo deste artigo é analisar e problematizar, com base em dados da dívida pública das três principais economias latino-americanas (Brasil, México e Argentina), os fluxos líquidos de saídas de capitais, na forma de juros e amortizações, estabelecendo a tese de que na atualidade a dívida estatal constitui um dos mais importantes mecanismos de transferência de renda para os centros dominantes  capitalistas, constituindo-se o “sistema de dívida pública” em fundamental fator de manutenção das relações de dependência e subordinação nas relações de poder econômico geopolítico

OUTRO OLHAR PARA O FINANCIAMENTO DA PREVIDÊNCIA SOCIAL NO BRASIL: A CENTRALIDADE DA FORMALIZAÇÃO DO TRABALHO, AUMENTO DE PRODUTIVIDADE E GESTÃO DE RECEITAS // ANOTHER LOOK AT THE FINANCING OF SOCIAL SECURITY IN BRAZIL: THE KEY ROLE OF FORMALIZING WORK, INCREASING PRODUCTIVITY AND ENHANCING REVENUE MANAGEMENT

Resumo: O artigo discute as variáveis relevantes para o financiamento da previdência social no Brasil, que têm sido desconsideradas no debate. Inicialmente, apresenta-se um modelo teórico que indica a relevância da produtividade, da formalização do trabalho e da eficiência de receitas para o financiamento da previdência. Analisa-se, na sequência, a trajetória dessas variáveis no Brasil, com sugestões de medidas para estimulá-las. Por fim, um exercício de simulação é realizado para testar os efeitos de mudanças nas variáveis sugeridas pelo modelo teórico sobre os resultados da previdência. As conclusões indicam que, quando considerados choques positivos na produtividade do trabalho, emprego formal e receita da previdência, o Regime Geral da Previdência Social (RGPS) torna-se superavitário. Uma implicação desse resultado é que os problemas de financiamento da previdência social não são resolvidos pelo corte de benefícios. ============Abstract:  This article analyzes a set of variables deemed relevant for the financing of social security in Brazil, which have been overlooked in the recent debate on the subject. At first, we introduce a theoretical model that highlights the key role of increasing productivity, expanding formal employment, and enhancing revenue efficiency in the financing of social security. We then analyze the trajectory of these variables in Brazil and suggest measures to stimulate them. Finally, we perform a simulation exercise to test the effects of changes in the selected variables on the outcomes of social security. The results indicate that in face of positive shocks in labor productivity, formal employment, and pension income, the General Social Security System (RGPS) results become a surplus. A key implication of this result is that problems in the financing of social security cannot be solved exclusively by cutting benefits

Financial forecasts accuracy in Brazil's social security system.

Long-term social security statistical forecasts produced and disseminated by the Brazilian government aim to provide accurate results that would serve as background information for optimal policy decisions. These forecasts are being used as support for the government's proposed pension reform that plans to radically change the Brazilian Constitution insofar as Social Security is concerned. However, the reliability of official results is uncertain since no systematic evaluation of these forecasts has ever been published by the Brazilian government or anyone else. This paper aims to present a study of the accuracy and methodology of the instruments used by the Brazilian government to carry out long-term actuarial forecasts. We base our research on an empirical and probabilistic analysis of the official models. Our empirical analysis shows that the long-term Social Security forecasts are systematically biased in the short term and have significant errors that render them meaningless in the long run. Moreover, the low level of transparency in the methods impaired the replication of results published by the Brazilian Government and the use of outdated data compromises forecast results. In the theoretical analysis, based on a mathematical modeling approach, we discuss the complexity and limitations of the macroeconomic forecast through the computation of confidence intervals. We demonstrate the problems related to error measurement inherent to any forecasting process. We then extend this exercise to the computation of confidence intervals for Social Security forecasts. This mathematical exercise raises questions about the degree of reliability of the Social Security forecasts

Forecast errors for expenses in each LDO for 2013, 2014 and 2015.

<p>Each curve shows the differences between the actual expense value for a particular year (2013-2015) and the estimated expenses for these three years in each LDO from 2002 to 2015.</p

Forecast errors for financial results in each LDO for 2013, 2014 and 2015.

<p>Each curve shows the differences between the actual financial results for a particular year (2013-2015) and the estimated financial results for these three years in each LDO from 2002 to 2015.</p

Evolution of RGPS revenue between 2000 and 2015 and forecasts until 2025(a) and 2060(b) with confidence intervals of 50, 95 and 99%.

<p>The black line from year 2016 is results using the mathematical modeling approach and the red line is the results from 2017 LDO.</p

Sources of revenue and main expenses of the general system of social security in Brazil—2015.

<p>Sources of revenue and main expenses of the general system of social security in Brazil—2015.</p

Proportion of revenue from employees and companies’ contributions in relation to total revenue.

<p>Proportion of revenue from employees and companies’ contributions in relation to total revenue.</p

Variations (in %) between our results and LDO forecasts.

<p>Variations (in %) between our results and LDO forecasts.</p