Financial Diversification and Sudden Stops

Recent literature on sudden stops analyses the sharp and varied capital account reversals experienced by many emerging market economies. This paper claims that more information can be extracted from the behavior of gross capital flows than from their net results. It emphasizes the fact that, while one economy’s sudden stop can reveal exclusion from the international financial markets, another can be making adjustments to its investment portfolio causing a sudden start, and both produce the same net effect on the capital account. We present a simple model that rationalizes this empirical fact and its relationship with the economy’s financial diversification.

Estimating Increased Transient Water Storage With Increases in Beaver Dam Activity

Dam building by beaver (Castor spp.) slows water movement through montane valleys, increasing transient water storage and the diversity of residence times. In some cases, water storage created by beaver dam construction is correlated to changes in streamflow magnitude and timing. However, the total amount of additional surface and groundwater storage that beaver dams may create (and, thus, their maximum potential impact on streamflow) has not been contextualized in the water balance of larger river basins. We estimate the potential transient water storage increases that could be created at 5, 25, 50, and 100% of maximum modeled beaver dam capacity in the Bear River basin, USA, by adapting the height above nearest drainage (HAND) algorithm to spatially estimate surface water storage. Surface water storage estimates were combined with the MODFLOW groundwater model to estimate potential increases in groundwater storage throughout the basin. We tested four scenarios to estimate potential transient water storage increases resulting from the construction of 1179 to 34,897 beaver dams, and estimated surface water storage to range from 57.5 to 72.8 m3 per dam and groundwater storage to range from 182.2 to 313.3 m3 per dam. Overall, we estimate that beaver dam construction could increase transient water storage by up to 10.38 million m3 in the Bear River basin. We further contextualize beaver dam-related water storage increases with streamflow, reservoir, and snowpack volumes

Comparative modelling of the spectra of cool giants

Publisher's version/PDFContext. Our ability to extract information from the spectra of stars depends on reliable models of stellar atmospheres and appropriate techniques for spectral synthesis. Various model codes and strategies for the analysis of stellar spectra are available today. Aims. We aim to compare the results of deriving stellar parameters using different atmosphere models and different analysis strategies. The focus is set on high-resolution spectroscopy of cool giant stars. Methods. Spectra representing four cool giant stars were made available to various groups and individuals working in the area of spectral synthesis, asking them to derive stellar parameters from the data provided. The results were discussed at a workshop in Vienna in 2010. Most of the major codes currently used in the astronomical community for analyses of stellar spectra were included in this experiment. Results. We present the results from the different groups, as well as an additional experiment comparing the synthetic spectra produced by various codes for a given set of stellar parameters. Similarities and differences of the results are discussed. Conclusions. Several valid approaches to analyze a given spectrum of a star result in quite a wide range of solutions. The main causes for the differences in parameters derived by different groups seem to lie in the physical input data and in the details of the analysis method. This clearly shows how far from a definitive abundance analysis we still are

Identifying the science and technology dimensions of emerging public policy issues through horizon scanning

Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security.Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security

US Cosmic Visions: New Ideas in Dark Matter 2017: Community Report

This white paper summarizes the workshop "U.S. Cosmic Visions: New Ideas in Dark Matter" held at University of Maryland on March 23-25, 2017.Comment: 102 pages + reference

Environment and shipping drive environmental DNA beta-diversity among commercial ports

The spread of nonindigenous species by shipping is a large and growing global problem that harms coastal ecosystems and economies and may blur coastal biogeographical patterns. This study coupled eukaryotic environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding with dissimilarity regression to test the hypothesis that ship-borne species spread homogenizes port communities. We first collected and metabarcoded water samples from ports in Europe, Asia, Australia and the Americas. We then calculated community dissimilarities between port pairs and tested for effects of environmental dissimilarity, biogeographical region and four alternative measures of ship-borne species transport risk. We predicted that higher shipping between ports would decrease community dissimilarity, that the effect of shipping would be small compared to that of environment dissimilarity and shared biogeography, and that more complex shipping risk metrics (which account for ballast water and stepping-stone spread) would perform better. Consistent with our hypotheses, community dissimilarities increased significantly with environmental dissimilarity and, to a lesser extent, decreased with ship-borne species transport risks, particularly if the ports had similar environments and stepping-stone risks were considered. Unexpectedly, we found no clear effect of shared biogeography, and that risk metrics incorporating estimates of ballast discharge did not offer more explanatory power than simpler traffic-based risks. Overall, we found that shipping homogenizes eukaryotic communities between ports in predictable ways, which could inform improvements in invasive species policy and management. We demonstrated the usefulness of eDNA metabarcoding and dissimilarity regression for disentangling the drivers of large-scale biodiversity patterns. We conclude by outlining logistical considerations and recommendations for future studies using this approach.Fil: Andrés, Jose. Cornell University. Department Of Ecology And Evolutionary Biology;Fil: Czechowski, Paul. Cornell University. Department Of Ecology And Evolutionary Biology; . University of Otago; Nueva Zelanda. Helmholtz Institute for Metabolic, Obesity and Vascular Research; AlemaniaFil: Grey, Erin. University of Maine; Estados Unidos. Governors State University; Estados UnidosFil: Saebi, Mandana. University of Notre Dame; Estados UnidosFil: Andres, Kara. Cornell University. Department Of Ecology And Evolutionary Biology;Fil: Brown, Christopher. California State University Maritime Academy; Estados UnidosFil: Chawla, Nitesh. University of Notre Dame; Estados UnidosFil: Corbett, James J.. University of Delaware; Estados UnidosFil: Brys, Rein. Research Institute for Nature and Forest; BélgicaFil: Cassey, Phillip. University of Adelaide; AustraliaFil: Correa, Nancy. Ministerio de Defensa. Armada Argentina. Instituto Universitario Naval de la Ara. Escuela de Ciencias del Mar; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Armada Argentina. Servicio de Hidrografía Naval; ArgentinaFil: Deveney, Marty R.. South Australian Research And Development Institute; AustraliaFil: Egan, Scott P.. Rice University; Estados UnidosFil: Fisher, Joshua P.. United States Fish and Wildlife Service; Estados UnidosFil: vanden Hooff, Rian. Oregon Department of Environmental Quality; Estados UnidosFil: Knapp, Charles R.. Daniel P. Haerther Center for Conservation and Research; Estados UnidosFil: Leong, Sandric Chee Yew. National University of Singapore; SingapurFil: Neilson, Brian J.. State of Hawaii Division of Aquatic Resources; Estados UnidosFil: Paolucci, Esteban Marcelo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales "Bernardino Rivadavia"; ArgentinaFil: Pfrender, Michael E.. University of Notre Dame; Estados UnidosFil: Pochardt, Meredith R.. M. Rose Consulting; Estados UnidosFil: Prowse, Thomas A. A.. University of Adelaide; AustraliaFil: Rumrill, Steven S.. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife; Estados UnidosFil: Scianni, Chris. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto para el Estudio de la Biodiversidad de Invertebrados; Argentina. Marine Invasive Species Program; Estados UnidosFil: Sylvester, Francisco. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto para el Estudio de la Biodiversidad de Invertebrados; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta; ArgentinaFil: Tamburri, Mario N.. University of Maryland; Estados UnidosFil: Therriault, Thomas W.. Pacific Biological Station; CanadáFil: Yeo, Darren C. J.. National University of Singapore; SingapurFil: Lodge, David M.. Cornell University. Department Of Ecology And Evolutionary Biology

Evidence for perinatal and child health care guidelines in crisis settings: can Cochrane help?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It is important that healthcare provided in crisis settings is based on the best available research evidence. We reviewed guidelines for child and perinatal health care in crisis situations to determine whether they were based on research evidence, whether Cochrane systematic reviews were available in the clinical areas addressed by these guidelines and whether summaries of these reviews were provided in Evidence Aid.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Broad internet searches were undertaken to identify relevant guidelines. Guidelines were appraised using AGREE and the clinical areas that were relevant to perinatal or child health were extracted. We searched The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews to identify potentially relevant reviews. For each review we determined how many trials were included, and how many were conducted in resource-limited settings.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Six guidelines met selection criteria. None of the included guidelines were clearly based on research evidence. 198 Cochrane reviews were potentially relevant to the guidelines. These reviews predominantly addressed nutrient supplementation, breastfeeding, malaria, maternal hypertension, premature labour and prevention of HIV transmission. Most reviews included studies from developing settings. However for large portions of the guidelines, particularly health services delivery, there were no relevant reviews. Only 18 (9.1%) reviews have summaries in Evidence Aid.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We did not identify any evidence-based guidelines for perinatal and child health care in disaster settings. We found many Cochrane reviews that could contribute to the evidence-base supporting future guidelines. However there are important issues to be addressed in terms of the relevance of the available reviews and increasing the number of reviews addressing health care delivery.</p

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio