Could the Colombian economy grow faster? How it would be possible?

This paper presents an economic growth model based on the positive externalities generated by the accumulations of physical and human capital. Such externalities imply, at the macroeconomic level, increasing returns to scale. The model helps to better understand the Colombian economic growth process from 2005-2019, and make conditional forecasts. One of the big obstacles in Colombia to have higher growth rates of the per capita product in the long term is everything that is slowing down a higher human capital growth rate and a greater creation of externalities derived from human capital, that is, everything that is hindering improvements in coverage and quality of the educational process

Los Ciclos Económicos Colombianos en el Siglo XX

A partir de una definición específica de "auge y depresión" que se acomoda a la economía colombiana se describen sus ciclos a lo largo del siglo XX y se interpretan con base en dos modelos de una pequeña economía abierta y algunos ejercicios econométricos para estimarlos.

Populist Policies in the Transition to Democracy

This paper develops a political economy model that provides an explanation as for why ruling elites in oligarquic societies may rely on income redistribution to the poor (the masses) in order to prevent them from attempting a revolution. We refer to this kind of redistribution as populist redistribution because, first it does not increase the poor’s productive capacity (human capital), and second it seeks to “buy” political support (peace) to perpetuate the elite’s control of political power. We examine the conditions under which ruling elites choose to deter the poor (by means of military repression and/or populist redistribution), to engage in a dispute with the poor for the control of political power, or, alternatively, to extend democracy. According to the results of the model populist redistribution (or military repression), if any, increases with initial wealth inequality and with the amount of redistribution that the poor can undertake under democracy, and decreases with the relative importance of a human capital externality in production. The model explains why in some cases the use of an apparently ine cient policy of populist redistribution turns out to be optimal for both groups (the ruling elite and the poor class) when the alternative is to use of military repression or default to conflict.Populism, oligarchy, democracy, conflict, inequality.

Cocaine production and trafficking : what do we know ?

The main purpose of this paper is to summarize the information currently available on cocaine production and trafficking. The paper starts by describing the available data on cocaine production and trade, the collection methodologies (if available) used by different sources, the main biases in the data, and the accuracy of different data sources. Next, it states some of the key empirical questions and hypotheses regarding cocaine production and trade and takes a first look at how well the data match these hypotheses. The paper states some of the main puzzles in the cocaine market and studies some of the possible explanations. These puzzles and empirical questions should guide future research on the key determinants of illicit drug production and trafficking. Finally, the paper studies the different policies that producer countries have adopted to fight against cocaine production and the role consumer countries play in the implementation of anti-drug policies.Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Crime and Society,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Economic Theory&Research

El Mercado Laboral Urbano: Empleo, Desempleo y Salario Real en Colombia entre 1985 y 1996

Se estimó un modelo neo-clásico del mercado laboral, con respuestas lentas o ajustes parciales, para el caso de la evolución del empleo, el desempleo transitorio (definido como la diferencia entre el desempleo total y el permanente) y el salario real en el conjunto de las siete principales ciudades colombianas entre 1985 y 1996. Los resultados son consistentes con el modelo supuesto y, en particular, muestran que el empleo es sensible al salario real y al desempleo transitorio, y recíprocamente. Además, tanto el empleo como el desempleo transitorio y el salario real dependen simultáneamente de las tres variables exógenas incorporadas en el modelo: el producto, el costo de uso del capital y la población en edad de trabajar. En equilibrio, al cual tiende el mercado según el modelo, el desempleo transitorio es nulo, así que la tasa desempleo se hace igual a la permanente.

Cocaine Production and Trafficking: What do we know?

The main purpose of this chapter is to summarize the information currently available on cocaine production and trafficking. The chapter starts by describing the available data on cocaine production and trade, the collection methodologies, (if available) used by different sources, the main biases in the data, and the accuracy of different data sources. Next, the chapter states some of the key empirical questions and hypotheses regarding cocaine production and trade and takes a first look at how well the data matches these hypotheses. Also, the chapter states some of the main puzzles in the cocaine market and studies some of the possible explanations. These puzzles and empirical questions should guide future research into our understanding of the key determinants of illicit drug production and trafficking. Finally, the chapter studies the different policies that producer countries have adopted to fight against cocaine production and the role consumer countries play in the implementation of anti-drug policies.Cocaine; Narcotraffic; War on Drugs. Classification JEL: K42; C81; H56.

Homer: A Forerunner of Neoclassical Economics

Homer clearly expressed the economic problem of choosing the best option among several alternatives given a certain set of restrictions. In the Odyssey he specifically wrote about the minimum cost choice. This kind of problem, as is well known, is at the heart of the neoclassical economics. We can therefore consider Homer a forerunner of this school of thought. This hypothesis contrasts with those of Trever (1916), Schumpeter (1954) and Schefold (1997)

Causas del desarrollo y mecánica del crecimiento

El tema de este ensayo es uno de los más importantes abordados por economistas, al menos desde Adam Smith, y uno que siempre atraerá su atención. Y en el caso nuestro, el de economistas que hemos sido testigos de un país y una época cuyas tasas de aumento del producto por habitante han pasado, en cosa de dos o tres decenios, de unos niveles medios relativamente normales a otros bastante bajos, la atracción ejercida por este asunto se ha vuelto especialmente intensa. Tan intensa que se sobrepuso, en mi caso, a la conciencia de las inmensas dificultades que tendría que afrontar si lo abordara, y a sabiendas de que la probabilidad de decir algo realmente novedoso era nula, o casi.The theme of this essay is one of the most important addressed by economists, at least since Adam Smith, and one that will always attract attention. And in our case, that of economists who have witnessed a country and a time whose rates of increase in GDP per capita have gone in about two or three decades, from relatively normal to others rather low average levels, the attraction of this issue has become especially intense. Overcame so intense that, in my case, to the consciousness of the immense difficulties they would face if addressed, and knowing that the chance of saying something really new was nil, or almost

Redistribution Policy and Social Welfare: A View from Macroeconomics

Este trabajo evalúa los efectos de políticas redistributivas sobre los resultados macroeconómicos, la distribución del ingreso y el bienestar utilizando tres criterios de bienestar social (el de Pareto, el de Rawls y uno mixto), y establece el vínculo entre lo anterior y la política óptima del gobernante. Las principales conclusiones son: 1) un efecto negativo de la redistribución a través de impuestos y subsidios es el aumento de la tasa de interés; 2) a medida que una sociedad avanza en el proceso de redistribución, llega el momento en que el gobernante se enfrenta a un dilema: mantener este proceso o evitar pérdidas en el bienestar social.This paper evaluates the effects of redistribution policies on macroeconomic performance, income distribution and social welfare using three alternative social welfare criteria (Pareto's, Rawls' and a mixed one), and establishes the link between the above and the ruler's optimal policy. The main conclusions are the following: 1) a negative effect of redistribution through taxation and subsidies is the increase in the interest rate; 2) as a society advances in the process of wealth redistribution, there comes a time when the ruler faces a trade-off: to maintain this process or to avoid losses in social welfare

Homer: A Forerunner of Neoclassical Economics

Homer clearly expressed the economic problem of choosing the best option among several alternatives given a certain set of restrictions. In the Odyssey he specifically wrote about the minimum cost choice. This kind of problem, as is well known, is at the heart of the neoclassical economics. We can therefore consider Homer a forerunner of this school of thought. This hypothesis contrasts with those of Trever (1916), Schumpeter (1954) and Schefold (1997)